Kaitlyn T!!!! She'll love the weather. She ran in one NY State Meet in high school that makes this weather look balmy. I was there, FREEZING my toes off in the frozen mud.
She glided across the course in her regular uniform like it was September warm.
This thread title was who to pick between PV and KT, but someone else (e.g., Roe, McCabe) could win the race.
In answer to the original question, I pick Valby over KT, but under certain conditions.
I wouldn’t worry about KT’s foot speed over that last 200m, because the last grinding hill will likely determine the winner between PV and KT, and KT’s sprint foot speed is greatly diminished with the hamstring tweak.
I think NCState should be forced, by deduction) to be pacesetter for this race, because they are the ones that have to keep it honest, or they open the door to New Mexico snagging the Team Trophy.
Therefore, (with limited optics of simply a fan) I think PV’s best strategy is to let others lead on this course, until the race starts at ~4.5 km.
Kaitlyn T!!!! She'll love the weather. She ran in one NY State Meet in high school that makes this weather look balmy. I was there, FREEZING my toes off in the frozen mud.
She glided across the course in her regular uniform like it was September warm.
didnt it snow at the ny state champs in like 2019? it def did!!
The SEC course was flat, fast and at least 200m short while the ACC course was non-stop rolling hills with patchy grass. Touhy's 12 sec gap over Chmiel at ACC's after Chmiel finished runner up to her by 5 sec (and another 8 sec back to 3rd) at Nuttycombe was impressive, as Touhy put a similar 12 secs on Chelengat at Joe Piane over 1k. I don't like comparing times, but the 19:08 at ACC's was worth more than the "18:25" at SEC's if you understand context. Like Valby's 18:58 was from another flat, fast course 30 m short (so 19:05). Probably not worth much more than Orton's 19:25 on the FSU course. A 19:30's on the OK State course would be worth much more which is what it could take to win. Did I mention the weather forecast?
I understand Valby has made improvements, but Touhy has made steady improvements every season since coming back from injury and I wouldn't be surprised if she's in better than 15:14 shape right now.
I think there is enough uncertainty about the length of any course that I will leave that variable out. Based on raw results (differentials to common runners) the data would suggest to me that Valby might be 5-10 seconds faster. However, I think the 2 different race styles impacted the differentials - in Valby's case going hard from early on dragged too many out too fast and they suffered. Look at SEC where there was a huge pack at the 1K at (supposedly) 3:10 that blew out to 20th being 2:00 back at the finish. Tuohy's "sit and kick" style kept more at the pace they could handle longer. So I think it is very close on balance. I still think the SEC split distances were wrong, but I am not as convinced about the course being well short of 6K at this point as the distance actually added for the W loop (after 1K, 4K) looks about right (and longer than map suggested). Of course it also shows the AL W got much faster than they showed at ND when they had run pretty decent times there. So lots of questions. Maybe the cold and hills help Tuohy - I guess we shall see.
This thread title was who to pick between PV and KT, but someone else (e.g., Roe, McCabe) could win the race.
In answer to the original question, I pick Valby over KT, but under certain conditions.
I wouldn’t worry about KT’s foot speed over that last 200m, because the last grinding hill will likely determine the winner between PV and KT, and KT’s sprint foot speed is greatly diminished with the hamstring tweak.
I think NCState should be forced, by deduction) to be pacesetter for this race, because they are the ones that have to keep it honest, or they open the door to New Mexico snagging the Team Trophy.
Therefore, (with limited optics of simply a fan) I think PV’s best strategy is to let others lead on this course, until the race starts at ~4.5 km.
any new thoughts who might lead 1K? Recall ACC as well
RunMichigan captures the Women's 6K November 11th, 2022 on the LaVern Gibson Championship Cross Country Course in Terre Haute, IN at the 2022 NCAA Division I...
Why would there not be at least those eight people (if not most of them, plus any other wildcards) at the 4.5km mark?
There could be a larger group at this point, but this is where the first of the steep roller hills starts....and someone will try to move here. My top 6 are Tuohy, Mercy, McCabe, Roe, Chmiel and Valby. None of these runners want to go into the last km even with Tuohy. None of these runners want Valby to be comfortable on these hills. And no one wants to give Mercy any confidence going to the last hill.
If Valby is going to win...she needs a lead before that last hill. So she needs a gap from here on and needs to push the pace. If she does, I don't think Chmiel or Roe will try to keep up at this point. They will hope for the others to blow out.
So again, I expect 4.5 km is where the real race will start.
parker valby essentially is having her katelyn tuohy 2017 era moment and theres no one who knows better how to beat this kind of a runner than someone who was this kind of a runner, that is katelyn
katelyn has learned many ways to win a race other than hammering it up front, ceili mccabe have the best 200-400m speed but katelyn has the best 1500m out of all of them, well even with 200m-400m i think katelyn is just the same w mccabe, katelyn ran several 31s earlier this season just like mccabe
everyone knows how valby has been running (hammering up front) and everyone knows how katelyn has been running (sit and kick)
valby will try to get away, she will not stay w the front pack and everyone knows it
"Soccer would have been the better path. Why am I doing this? I am in soooo much pain"
*Katelyn Tuohy as Parker Valley drags her through the 5K mark at 15:26....
Tuohy has suffered thru pain already many times, sometimes of her own doing. Going out way too hard on DMT legs, the 2019 NXN, the 1500s as a FR when she generally crawled the last 100.......
Why would there not be at least those eight people (if not most of them, plus any other wildcards) at the 4.5km mark?
There could be a larger group at this point, but this is where the first of the steep roller hills starts....and someone will try to move here. My top 6 are Tuohy, Mercy, McCabe, Roe, Chmiel and Valby. None of these runners want to go into the last km even with Tuohy. None of these runners want Valby to be comfortable on these hills. And no one wants to give Mercy any confidence going to the last hill.
If Valby is going to win...she needs a lead before that last hill. So she needs a gap from here on and needs to push the pace. If she does, I don't think Chmiel or Roe will try to keep up at this point. They will hope for the others to blow out.
So again, I expect 4.5 km is where the real race will start.
I don’t agree with the first bolded statement. If the race were only 1km long tomorrow, on an uphill grind, I give the edge to Valby’s current fitness.
Please be specific at what distance/time into the race you are referring to by the phrase “that last hill”, as per my previous statements, in order to win it, I don’t think Valby has to absolutely have a gap advantage before the race starts at ~4.5km. There is no need to.
It is NCState that has to have set the pace up to that point, or they lose the Team Trophy. Therefore, McCabe, Chelangat, Roe and Valby should leave pacesetting duties to NCState. In that scenario, KT has expended the most energy up to that point in the race, and then McCabe and Valby can edge her out over the last 1km.