Pretty close to Cade Flatt at close to the same age. Not to detract from Cade at all but that’s a hell of a performance for more of a miler. Hopefully another year gives Hobbs some time to really hammer a 1500.
1000%. If Hobbs can drop his 800m by another 2-3 seconds and given his talent already over the mile/1500m he could very well become a sub 3:29 1500m runner.
If he drops his 800 by 2 sec, from what i have seen this last year, he would be by far the best 800 guy in the US. Indeed he would win most world meets this past year where 145 was good for 1st or at worst 2nd. So I dont know, that last 2 sec (sub 145) seems to be a wall for a lot of guys.
Yes, correct. People really think every time a 1500/miler runs 1:46.8 they’re in line for 3:31-3:32? Jakob runs the 1:46 type times off 100mpw with 90%+ of that uptempo work at threshold and not intense. Nothing like what many 1500m guys do including the Warhurst system.
Agree with you both. 1:46.87 is “worth” ~3:39.25 (IAAF tables). Yes I know he’s a miler, but Jakob Ingebrigtsen is not a good comparison—you cannot say “Well Ingebrigtsen’s only run 1:46, so surely Hobbs is due for a big PR.”
To the person who posted that Nick Willis ran 1:46.18/2:16.58/3:30.35 within 12 weeks as evidence that Kessler’s ready for a big 1500 PR—when Willis was 21, he ran his 1:45.54 lifetime best and a 3:32.68 PB within the month of July. That little bit of data would more so suggest Kessler is in 3:34 shape.
Kessler’s 2:16.36 1k is “worth” 3:36.75 for 1500. Trending in the right direction as you’d expect. Kessler ran 3:36.99 for 1500 in Italy less than 4 weeks ago. My guess is he’s currently capable of 3:33.25-3:35.50, and if I were to go more specific, I’d say he could fractionally improve his 3:34.36 PR. All in all that’s a solid place to be toward the end of this initially rocky transitional year. He sets him up nicely to progress to the 3:30-3:32 people are talking about next season, if all goes well.
Why are we all doubting 3:34 again? I dont follow. He has run that before, he is clearly progressing late from injury this year, and dropped 3 sec in an 800 which i would suggest sure doesnt hurt? It is folly to say a 3 sec pr in the 8 is worth a much slower 1500? As we all know everyone is better at some events than others. He's with a good team, young, healthy, why would we be surprised by 3:32, 3:33? Why is that crazy? Unless maybe as a maturing runner he ends up being an 800 guy all along? I cant explain 3:37 in Italy. But 3:32 wouldnt surprise me at all.
Agree with you both. 1:46.87 is “worth” ~3:39.25 (IAAF tables). Yes I know he’s a miler, but Jakob Ingebrigtsen is not a good comparison—you cannot say “Well Ingebrigtsen’s only run 1:46, so surely Hobbs is due for a big PR.”
To the person who posted that Nick Willis ran 1:46.18/2:16.58/3:30.35 within 12 weeks as evidence that Kessler’s ready for a big 1500 PR—when Willis was 21, he ran his 1:45.54 lifetime best and a 3:32.68 PB within the month of July. That little bit of data would more so suggest Kessler is in 3:34 shape.
Kessler’s 2:16.36 1k is “worth” 3:36.75 for 1500. Trending in the right direction as you’d expect. Kessler ran 3:36.99 for 1500 in Italy less than 4 weeks ago. My guess is he’s currently capable of 3:33.25-3:35.50, and if I were to go more specific, I’d say he could fractionally improve his 3:34.36 PR. All in all that’s a solid place to be toward the end of this initially rocky transitional year. He sets him up nicely to progress to the 3:30-3:32 people are talking about next season, if all goes well.
Why are we all doubting 3:34 again? I dont follow. He has run that before, he is clearly progressing late from injury this year, and dropped 3 sec in an 800 which i would suggest sure doesnt hurt? It is folly to say a 3 sec pr in the 8 is worth a much slower 1500? As we all know everyone is better at some events than others. He's with a good team, young, healthy, why would we be surprised by 3:32, 3:33? Why is that crazy? Unless maybe as a maturing runner he ends up being an 800 guy all along? I cant explain 3:37 in Italy. But 3:32 wouldnt surprise me at all.
Not all of us are doubting. You are correct. If he gets in the right race, he’s surely capable of 3:32-3:33. I’m still conservatively going w 3:33.
Tanner captures just why big pr's in fast races happen. They're not like the other races. Guys who are ready and primed, especially with faster primer races at shorter distances like 800 and 1k, can get on the train and do things they thought were impossible for them. Tanner had run 3:34 indoors last year or the year before--which was a shock at the time--and now he's run 3:31. Kessler did that in the 3:34 race. But he's never been in a Jakob-Tim special. Stonier had this huge breakthrough because he was in shape but also because he was in the right race to do it. There have been many years where there were Americans stuck at home running the typical 3:35 races, occasionally a second or two faster who might have been able to stick in one of the Monaco-style or now championship races and be pulled to a much faster time as well. They just never got the chance because they didn't get great q times with their only opportunities being those slower American races. Bottom line, this is why I think Kessler can drop to 3:31-32. He is fit and confident and if he's in Lausanne, he'll be pulled to a very fast time with the field.
Well, I thought I was following King's wink and a nod to indicate he'd be racing at Lausanne but he's not in the field. And he can't qualify for Zurich or Brussels. So, does that mean he's out of luck for a fast one? In that case, a pr would be great because how often are non-DL, non-champs races even low 3:31-32?
CHERUIYOT Timothy (KEN)3:28.7705 JUL 2019 REPORTS RankPosNatNameTimeQual. rankQual. pointsSBPB 1 ESP GARCÍA Gonzalo 3:35.92 3:35.92 2 POL ROZMYS Michal 9 7 3:34.58 3:32.67 3 MAR SADIKI Abdellatif 10 6 3:33.93 3:33.59 4 AUS McSWEYN Stewart 3:33.24 3:29.51 5 GBR GOURLEY Neil 14 5 3:32.93 3:32.93 6 GBR STONIER Matthew 25 1 3:32.50 3:32.50 7 NZL TANNER Samuel 3:31.34 3:31.34 8 GBR HEYWARD Jake 7 9 3:31.08 3:31.08 9 KEN KIPSANG Abel 1 21 3:30.82 3:29.56 10 GBR KERR Josh 16 4 3:30.60 3:29.05 11 KEN CHERUIYOT Timothy 5 13 3:30.21 3:28.28 12 ESP GARCÍA Mario 3:30.20 3:30.20 13 AUS HOARE Oliver 2 20 3:30.12 3:30.12 14 NOR INGEBRIGTSEN Jakob 3 16 3:29.47 3:28.32 15 FRA AKBACHE Mounir 400m - 55 sec, 800m - 1:51 min 3:39.81
Honestly is the best policy. I was never that good, or ran fast enough to be a barometer. I only ran 2 years of HS, and 1.5 of DII College. I ONLY know famous coaches LOL. That's my info source, that and Coaching a couple of very good HS'ers privately(which I do not advocate, but was requested to do so)..and seeing many many Top, Top Prospects and races over decades.
Well, I thought I was following King's wink and a nod to indicate he'd be racing at Lausanne but he's not in the field. And he can't qualify for Zurich or Brussels. So, does that mean he's out of luck for a fast one? In that case, a pr would be great because how often are non-DL, non-champs races even low 3:31-32?
CHERUIYOT Timothy (KEN)3:28.7705 JUL 2019 REPORTS RankPosNatNameTimeQual. rankQual. pointsSBPB 1 ESP GARCÍA Gonzalo 3:35.92 3:35.92 2 POL ROZMYS Michal 9 7 3:34.58 3:32.67 3 MAR SADIKI Abdellatif 10 6 3:33.93 3:33.59 4 AUS McSWEYN Stewart 3:33.24 3:29.51 5 GBR GOURLEY Neil 14 5 3:32.93 3:32.93 6 GBR STONIER Matthew 25 1 3:32.50 3:32.50 7 NZL TANNER Samuel 3:31.34 3:31.34 8 GBR HEYWARD Jake 7 9 3:31.08 3:31.08 9 KEN KIPSANG Abel 1 21 3:30.82 3:29.56 10 GBR KERR Josh 16 4 3:30.60 3:29.05 11 KEN CHERUIYOT Timothy 5 13 3:30.21 3:28.28 12 ESP GARCÍA Mario 3:30.20 3:30.20 13 AUS HOARE Oliver 2 20 3:30.12 3:30.12 14 NOR INGEBRIGTSEN Jakob 3 16 3:29.47 3:28.32 15 FRA AKBACHE Mounir 400m - 55 sec, 800m - 1:51 min 3:39.81
I had dispelled that days , maybe more , a while ago.
Once the field was out and I saw the size of it, and quality I knew he would not be in that. Tanner was an easy add in that his time was so much in the range of this field.
Lot of random bickering in here so let’s put this to rest: Ronnie said he’s in 3:34 shape and has 1-2 cracks left at it. That’d be a great wrap on a long comeback and then let the kid rest and head back to flag for some fall mileage
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Tanner captures just why big pr's in fast races happen. They're not like the other races. Guys who are ready and primed, especially with faster primer races at shorter distances like 800 and 1k, can get on the train and do things they thought were impossible for them. Tanner had run 3:34 indoors last year or the year before--which was a shock at the time--and now he's run 3:31. Kessler did that in the 3:34 race. But he's never been in a Jakob-Tim special. Stonier had this huge breakthrough because he was in shape but also because he was in the right race to do it. There have been many years where there were Americans stuck at home running the typical 3:35 races, occasionally a second or two faster who might have been able to stick in one of the Monaco-style or now championship races and be pulled to a much faster time as well. They just never got the chance because they didn't get great q times with their only opportunities being those slower American races. Bottom line, this is why I think Kessler can drop to 3:31-32. He is fit and confident and if he's in Lausanne, he'll be pulled to a very fast time with the field.
Keep in mind that the race in which Kessler ran his stunning 3:34.36 breakthrough WAS that kind of special race, only on a domestic level.
9 of the top 11 finishers set PBs (2 of those 9 have improved them since). Obviously that race was a good opportunity for these guys to run fast, and was probably the ideal opportunity for Kessler last year. No guarantee that you could slot any of these guys in a Jakob Ingebrigtsen race and they would run faster—it might actually be less than ideal for them.
To Be fair ,Garcia Romo as he used to be known as, LOL, ran only .03 slower back on April 8th, I am sure with his recent 1500's and WC finish, he could run faster than that by a little at least now. And as all know, I am a huge Kessler supporter. It's almost kind of a shame that Hobb's season has to come to an end sometime, I think he is getting better and sharper week over week, and that one month lost, way back , really did set him back a bit. I would think, there is a possibility he goes on 9/4 and maybe even 5th Ave Mile a week later .
So, Kessler will go on 9/4. I am not sure Hocker and Nuguse are in, considering they ran yesterday, I did not know that they were in Lucerne until day before, that is on me..I should have been aware. I guess they could still be in this on 9/4 as it would seem at least Nuguse is looking for a faster time than that one yesterday . The next year Q standard I believe is 3:34.2 "In the window". I do have other info , but cannot post it yet, sorry.Stay tuned.
So, Kessler will go on 9/4. I am not sure Hocker and Nuguse are in, considering they ran yesterday, I did not know that they were in Lucerne until day before, that is on me..I should have been aware. I guess they could still be in this on 9/4 as it would seem at least Nuguse is looking for a faster time than that one yesterday . The next year Q standard I believe is 3:34.2 "In the window". I do have other info , but cannot post it yet, sorry.Stay tuned.
Too bad Kessler isn’t running the full mile, as I believe he could take Ryun’s U20 US record and his own U20 1500 en route. I think he’s capable of 3:32, but I’m still sticking with the 3:33 prediction. Depends on the race really.
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