Way Too Early Predictions for the 2022 NCAA D1 XC Championships

A couple of notes on University of Oklahoma runners:

Victor’s birthday is September 29, 1998. He will be 24 come nationals!

Shea Foster still eligible. He graduated HS in 2015. But he hasn’t started racing in college until 2019?

I mean Ok state runners

Replace WF with Tennessee. Will be a top 7 squad by the end of summer

Lauren Gregory does not have XC eligibility so Arkansas looks to be in a bigger hole.

Yep, so Arkansas will have a Solid top 3 in VanCamp, Thorvaldson and Ewert. They needs to find a 4 and 5.

Just noticed that Chalangat turned 25 today

rolltide.com

Mercy Chelangat - Track & Field, Cross Country

Mercy ChelangatCross Country/Distance - Chelangat Top Marks Accolades 2022 NCAA Champion - 10,000 meters 2022 First Team Outdoor All-American - 5,000

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They will be adding Yaseen Abdalla

Should Chelangat win another title she would be one of the oldest. Avg age of W 5k (i and o), 10k, and XC winners wince 2010 has been about 22.5, with only 4 of them 20. Oldest was 26.

BYU picking up a transfer - Lindsey Stallworth from E Tenn who should be an upgrade to what they had at the 4/5 position. NM picking up Camille Jackson from CO. She hasn't done that much in college yet, so maybe more of a future impact.

Could Alabama potentially factor in the top 10? Chelangat doesnt need much introduction as a multiple time NCAA champ and runner up, but there are some pretty good girls behind her. Don't forget that Amaris Tyynismaa placed second at NCAA XC in the covid year, and although she isn't at that fitness yet post injury, she did run 15:42 this outdoor season. Add in Flomena Asekol (a 4:12 1500 runner who was 29th at NCAA XC 2021) and thats a top three that all have the potential to be top 30. After 3 is where they need some help, but Jami Reed has shown flashes of success before and Newbury Park runner Sam McDonnell is an incoming freshman who has some pretty serious prs (4:38 in the mile I believe) who could factor.

They should be better at 2 (Tyynismaa) and 4/5 by adding McDonnell. Decent chance for top 10. If the transfer I noted above runs well for BYU they belong in the 4-10 conversation.

My prior post

"Still trying to find more data for more teams, but while preliminary, the top W teams look to me like:
NC St/NM - 5 strong runners on both teams, looks close on paper (assumes good health of course)
OSU - some ifs but if they work out seem likely for podium esp on home course. The last hill may kill some other teams weakness at #4 and 5 runners like 2020. Clearly well back of the first 2 though.
NAU/Arkansas/Colorado/ND/Alabama/Washington - some ifs on each team, esp at #4 and 5 but seem most likely to fight it out for 4-9 place. Whoever finds the best depth will prevail, esp Alabama and Arkansas."

Is CU really gonna get top 10?

Sounds like they are losing everyone except Covert and Miniutti

Anyone else in this list still eligible?

19:37.60
Abby Nichols
8th
Complete
19:51.80
Emily Covert
31st
Complete
20:09.40
Rachel McArthur
54th
Complete
20:11.70
India JOHNSON
58th
Complete
20:20.20
Micaela DeGenero
76th
Complete
20:25.20
Hannah Miniutti
85th
Complete
20:28.60
Madison Boreman
96th
Complete

just those 2 I think, but they have Bailey Hertenstein and Ella Baron coming in via transfer.

FastTuohy, I’m pretty sure you stay on Letsrun all day.

That’s solid 4. Addy Wiley is going there too. Was really successful in track this spring although her XC results haven’t been that outstanding yet

Arkansas will have a solid top 3 - Ewert, Thorvaldson, and Van Camp, and also Logan Jolly might be up there. Jolly might be up there too. She beat Thorvaldson in the 3k last winter.
She also almost beat Van Camp in that distance. Takes 1 more to score. Probably Jenna Mulhern will be up there, who got 3rd at Eastbay nationals, and also ran a 16:07 in a 5K.

I am quite sure Jolly has no eligibility.

arkansasrazorbacks.com

Logan Jolly

Senior (2020-21) Outdoor: Improved career best in 3,000m Steeplechase with a 10:04.55 to place seventh in the SEC Championships and moved to No. 7 on Arkansas all-time list … Posted a 10:07.

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I just became aware, that Heidi Nielsen ran a 16:21 in the 3k and beat Thorvaldson in that race. She also ran a 16:30 in the 5K. She’s another candidate

Predjikshunss and FastTuohy should give each other their numbers so they can text back and forth.