J. Ingebrigtsen's kick is survival of the ... wrote:
high school xc coach wrote:
For all those who dismiss Jakob's kick, how slow would a race have to go for Hocker to beat him?
The 1500m man who raced with the most confidence I have seen, John Walker, 1976 Olympics 1500m final. Looking at the race, Walker obviously was confident he was going to win. He showed E. Coghlan a bit of respect 400m to 1050m, moving up to middle of the back. Walker with 450m to go moved up on Coghlan's shoulder. With 300m to go, R. Wohlhuter tried to pass Walker and Coghlan. Walker said, Game on! 1976 Olympics 1500m final is the only 1500m final with two medalists sprinting sub-38 final 300m, Walker & van Damme. [2016 Olympics was close. Matt C. sprinted 38.00. Mahkloufi sprinted sub-38 last 300m.] J. Ingebrigtsen doesn't have a sub-38 last 300m in him in a 800m to 10000m race.
2016 did have two medalists closing their last 300 in sub-38 - both Mahkloufi and Willis were in the 37.7-37.8 range.
As far as Hocker, it is silly to use his January kick to judge what may happen later this season. Beamish certainly had the best kick, but also was able to sneak through on the inside. Hocker was already swinging wide on the turn, and finished in the outside of lane 2 - hard to guess how much that added to his split, but I would estimate his final 100 meters of running was maybe 12.75. Beamish also had to do some maneuvering on the last lap, but his final 100 was mostly on the shortest line.
Too early to say if Hocker will be in the mix for a medal this summer, but this sort of opener does nothing to say he won't be.