NCAA Individ. Champ Predictions

If I were coaching, I'd run Eagon, Ford, Nelson and Lockhart as my 4-7. I think that Lockhart gets the nod because he's not only a senior (plus a very talented one, just underachieving) but also because it's a 10k, and he's probably got more of an advantage over Wagner and Gregory at 10k than at 8k.

1. Wisconsin: 46

(Teamscores)

1. Bairu

4. Solinsky

6. Withrow

15. Eagon

20. Ford

2. Arkansas: 81

3. Boit

11. Forrest

12. Kosgei

22. Rodriguez

33. Cormier

3. Colorado: 103

5. Schoolmeester

9. Nelson

19. Pifer

27. Strang

43. Batliner

4. Arizona: 152

8. Cheseret

10. Mutanya

18. Maiyo

32. Trafeh

84. Mpanga

5. Iona: 178

2. Kiplagat

21. Khadraoui

36. Okuti

49. Chemlany

70. Ledwith

6. Notre Dame: 199

14. Benninger

26. Moore

28. O'Donnell

46. Van Ort

85. Smyth

7. UTEP: 224

18. Samoei

25. Ng'ojoy

38. Bogdan

41. Mutai

102. Tanui

8. Stanford 230

16. Aria

34. Pierce

45. Gotcher

47. Heath

88. Vidal

9. Texas: 305

30. Thorne

31. Manzano

42. Stanley

99. Von Letscher

103. Munoz

luis cucaita wrote:

muy interesante.The most "objective" post so far.Lockhart is mentally OUT of the loopp since frosh ear though he trains well.Last years Wisco team had too much media on Tegencamp and Solinsky but the 4-5-6-7 runners were NOT XC prowesses.This year, WISCO will crush as outside of Nelson, Ford, Withrow, Wagner,Solinsky Eagon and Bairu are FEARLESS and non-chokers.

It doesn't matter if they are FEARLESS and non-chokers if they are all going for the individual title. The course being fast(no mud like last year) could lead to the faster Arkansas guys beating Wisconsin's top two. Does everyone realize that the Josh McDougal has only lost one race in college ever! He has nothing to lose team wise to hold him back from taking it out hard. Wes Cheating should take it out very hard as well. The Kenyans from Arkansas will be right on his back. As will Wisconsin's Solinsky,Bairu, and Withrow. It will be survival of the fastest and I got to think that Arkansas is faster.

I wonder if we (myself included) are underrating Fagan. He set the VCP record, but he's not mentioned as a top contender, probably from his regional defeat to Kiplagat. In Fagan's defense, anyone else, McDougal, Bairu, whoever, would've likely lost to Kiplagat at that regional.

Fagan tried to win, but I doubt he was "balls out" from the gun intending to drop Kip ASAP like he did the competition at VCP. He likely ran hard, kept it reasonable as the big race is Monday. That opened the door for him to be neck/neck at the end. Would any serious NCAA contender have beaten Kiplagat at this regional? McDougal may've suffered the exact same fate, even though he demolished Kip a few weeks ago.

If you think that Wisconsin will have trouble running as a team because there will be battles for number one you are greatly mistaken. Bairu would have traded his number one last year for the team victory and he will also this year if that is what it takes. Last year they left the 2nd place trophy in the box on the course and did not take it home with them (someone later picked it up and gave it to someone at UW).

Last year a large number of runners faded in the last 1-2 km because the "heavy" running, combined with the standard hard push in the first 1-2 km tired out the runners, who also have been racing 8km not 10. Just like several years ago (2002?) after the prior year being "heavy", the next year the runners were a little more measured.

As for Wisconsin, the only loss at the top is Tegenkamp, while others pick up a year of experience and then you add three that did not run last year -- Withrow (sixth at US Nationals, first American at WC XC), Eagon (one second behind Withrow at Big 10s) and Ford (16th two years ago before transferring). This is the deepest team I have ever seen (I have not seen the UTEP teams etc., it is not the deepest team ever).

Given that there are three top runners that some are picking to win, when you add the depth, I do not see them losing. The fifth many will just not be that far back. My guess is that Lockhart, 6th at Regionals, will be one of the two very good runners that will not be in the race -- how many teams are leaving a 6th place Regional finisher off the Nationals team?

Still, this seems to be a year with a lot of very good runners out there (even without Gaylord ;>) and some pretty good teams. Enjoy the race, this is what it is supposed to be like.

26mi235 wrote:

If you think that Wisconsin will have trouble running as a team because there will be battles for number one you are greatly mistaken.

It's not a shot in the dark. Grant Robison finished 21st when going for #1. The next year he finished 3rd running as a teammate.

There are also a lot of good runners this year who take it out fast. Bairu's proven to handle an individual title run on a reasonable day. But if Solinsky & Withrow try, it's not unforseen they'll pay big at 8K. Could very easily go either way.

26mi235 wrote:

If you think that Wisconsin will have trouble running as a team because there will be battles for number one you are greatly mistaken.

I reread your post. I see you're point is Wisco will consciously place the team goal over a risky individual try (but if they're feeling good, then I think they'll go for it). I agree.

Here is my guess in a Grote sense

1.Bairu-Im putting my money on him. I just think he has the best credentials, plus the guy has been resting most of the season due to the team depth.

2.Boit-Only way he isnt finishing second is if he falls.

3.Kiplagat-Sadly but I think it will be another non-American rounding out the top 3. From the Kip tribe,I dont know I just think he is that good from what I saw him do this season.

4.Schoolmester-I think he is the most under rated guy this year, a low 30 at elevation, in the wind, and it had to have been hilly if at elevation. Will finish 4th. b/c he can run in the cold.

5.Solinsky-This guy is my hero and I think he has the kick to make the dif. anyways he isnt going to lose to that nerd-schooler, damn nerd schoolers

6.Kosgei-Has a sick kick plus good endurance but will be outkciked by Chris.

7.Kurt-Will finish 7th. with the luck of the Irish and b/c he is that good if he runs his best.

8.Harbert Okuti-The guy finished 12th. at the jr. worlds xc, last time I checked out the guys that raced Ritz. finished third and the Africans that finished behind to 12th. are all running 26s and low 27s in the 10 or doing the marathon good; makes sense to me if I am to pick a dark horse its this guy.

9.McDougal-Being dominate in races that most runners arent running all out dosent mean he is going to win, I think he has ran him self to much when he should have been resting more in other words I think he has already ran his fastest times this year, all down hill the rest of the year.

10.Nelson-I just like this guy plus he is also another guy who is really fast, wouldnt doubt if he didnt do this well though but I cant see him finishing higher than 25.

Other guys close to the top ten(in no particular order:

Lemoncello, Eagon, Forrest,Withrow(next year in the top three), Keating(if he pulls an upset there is no doubt in my mind that he is guilty), Van Ort, Symth, Tim Moore, Debole, Hower.

Teams:

1. Wiconsin-Kicking ass, 2.Arkansaw(almost equally as talented but not as use to the weather)3.Notre Dame-Five All Americans, maybe 4. 4.Colorado-Secured and close to the Irish.5.Stanfurd-They have talent, if the gaylord went south next year after coming of the injury and aqua treadmills; just a nightmare enough said.6.Iona-To Kenyan to finish any lower, top three will pick up the slack for the fifth; why isnt Sean Connoly running? 7.Georgetown-Dalpiaz is there fifth guy he broke 9mins. in the two mile like four years ago, couple of All Americans:Debole and Hower, three and four should be right below 50 I hope

8.UTEP-Another Kenyan team. 9.Virgina-They always finish thier 1-5 like only 15 seconds apart, way underrated b/c of lack of star power but should have their top five somewhere bet. 30 and 40 on a side note I would pick W&M but no sign of the Count.10.Florida State-This is probably flat out wrong but Lemoncello is going to be up there and the rest of the team is good but probably not good enough

Giovanni wrote:

8.Harbert Okuti-The guy finished 12th. at the jr. worlds xc, last time I checked out the guys that raced Ritz. finished third and the Africans that finished behind to 12th. are all running 26s and low 27s in the 10 or doing the marathon good; makes sense to me if I am to pick a dark horse its this guy.

9.McDougal-Being dominate in races that most runners arent running all out dosent mean he is going to win, I think he has ran him self to much when he should have been resting more in other words I think he has already ran his fastest times this year, all down hill the rest of the year.

Interesting.

Since when were most runners at Pre-Nat's not running all out? You mean Richard Kiplagat wanted to go only 98%? Yeah, because that makes sense, a whole month before the champs. McDougal set course records everywhere he ran, without anyone pushing him. You don't think Kiplagat would have liked a course record without the fear of losing rest a month before the most important race of the year? You make it sound like McDougal didn't do anything impressive, as if he didn't beat or run faster than any impressive runners at Pre-Nat's. I believe he beat Okuti pretty bad at Pre-Nat's.

Look for the Billy Nelson upset, he is due.

Oklahoma State is going to shock some people. Don't be suprised if they're top 6. If they can get a strong effort from a 5th, they"ll do hella good.

Last time I checked everyone I listed is competing at the nationals, what makes the difference of what they placed at pre-nats other than qualifying no one is going to remember who finished what at pre-nats unless it is first or the person who recalls places 10-100 needs to get a life and after monday Im pretty sure no one will be intrested in the pre-nats results which is monday and not to far from now. Personally I didnt know who had the courtland park record till he broke it b/c records will always be broken but if you finish top ten at nationals no one can take that from you unless your doped up.

And in case if you didnt know pre-nats is one race kiplagat ran in, that leaves him several other races to choose from to run at 98%(how would you know this anyways did you set up an interview at the end of the race) and he was training through pre-nats last time I heard to peak at nationals its what you got to do if you plan on beating someone that is faster than you, train more get faster. In the end its not about how many races you won but how good you were when you were at your prime, I went undeafeated in middle school should I high light my career on that stage of life simply b/c I dominated all the other 13 and 14 year olds who had playing sega as a higher priority, no. I would say I made all conference in college even though I was beat pretty bad by six other guys.

Whats are the chances that Brent Vaughn runs for the Buffs? Has he been injured all year? What did he injure?

No disrespect but Brent Vaughn at 85% is better than a Payton Batliner at 100%.

Just arrived in Terre Haute. Can't wait for Mcdougal's runaway victory tomorrow. I have the over/under at 12 seconds.

Rohatinsky wins rock on mormons

Check the results on IAAF.org in 2004 Okuti finishes 11th. to my mistake(I typed 12th.) and scroll down and look at who finished 49th. Josh McDougal. I am not saying he ran his best that day and he may even beat Okuti on Monday but dont knock the guys that finish top 15 at jr. worlds they have some ridiculus prs now. Boniface Kiprop finished 2nd. and that guy runs under 27 and 13 last I heard he was dropped out of marathon in the olympics still young much more to be heard from Boniface and Okuti.

I told you guys Wisconsin kicking ass! Irish 3rd!

Pretty good predictions from Gammons for once, except for the team results.