Cole MF Hocker. 52.23 last lap. 3:35.35 FTW over Nuguse!!!

La sopa de Sabadell wrote:

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

There are 20 guys that can close better? Than 25.9 in a 3.35 race? Are you sure about that? Why don't you go ahead and name those 20 guys - you have NO CHANCE to do that. Zero.

Jakob ran last 200m in 25.7 in London DL 5000m in 2019 to finish second with 13:02.03.

His last 3000m was 7:47.

And he is only faster now. So I wouldn't be so sure that Hocker can beat Jakob in a slow race.

Kicking in a 5000m race is totally different to a 1500m race - they are even off different energy systems. Once again, you don't simply say "oh well Jakob ran 25.7 at the end of 13min02 5000m, therefore he must run faster at the end of a 1500m because a 1500m is shorter" - that logic is completely flawed. Even in championship 800m closing under 26 seconds is extremely rare - you need to have a race that is almost 53-54 at the bell and 1.19/20 at 600m to see that happen.

Why don't we make this simple - as it stands today I have seen Cole Hocker run 3.35.5 in a championship race, running 52.2 and 25.8 in the last 4 and 2 hundred meters respectively. He has done that, that is fact. I know that these types of splits are comparable to what we have seen in World and Olympic finals in the past. We have not seen this from Jakob because with Tim C around we aren't getting championship races like this in this current era. But that isn't the point of this hypothetical situation...

No Hocker isn't outkicking pros if the pace is well under 2min at 800m. He's not winning the Olympics, he's not running 3.28.

However if a race was slow enough through 1200m and he was in position, he has proven that he has elite wheels good enough to win that race. To say that he would have no chance, not even the slightest chance is utterly ridiculous. Even if you want to say that off a slow pace at 100% Jakob closes in 25.6 and Hocker 25.8 - if Jakob was to have a slightly off day (which believe it or not does happen even for him - see 2019, DOHA) then Hocker could beat him. I don't quite understand the resistance in just saying it's plausible/possible, because it is.

alphas only wrote:

The Dirty Duck wrote:

I don't want to be rude, but these are insights that a child could have. No, a college freshman in his breakout season is not a favorite over most seasoned professionals with PRs 4-8 seconds faster.

What's interesting is that he (and Kessler) have exploded onto the scene with world class closing speed before the age of 20 - which means they have the TOOLS to win medals sometime soon.

I agree. Sometime soon. As in 3 years from now. Maybe next year if they have even remotely similar improvement as they did this year.

I think the answer is somewhere in the middle. They are both probably in 3:33 shape, maybe 3:32. Nuguse ran 3:34 wire to wire and they both just ran 3:35 closing in 52/1:48 (maybe 1:49 for Nuguse not sure). You can’t count that sort of fitness / closing speed out of making world/oly finals, and has been pointed out, the splits / last lap are similar to makhloufi 2012, centro 2013, etc… sure they’re not overly likely to medal vs 3:28 guys, especially if it’s fast, but you absolutely can’t count out either of them. I would not be *that* surprised. I think there’s a 20-30% chance 1 of them will be in the Olympic final and a 3-5% chance 1 of them medals.

+1

This is it. Yesterday's race is almost exactly how most world finals play out - 3:35ish final time with a 51-52 last lap. If the finals play out like yesterday, these guys have a chance to medal. They have the speed, they just need to make sure they position themselves well because that is going to be the difference.

Also, I am not sure why people are bringing up PR's and SB's into it. In most finals, it is usually not the ones with the best SB's that year that are getting medals. Take the past 2 olympics for example - in 2016, it was the 20th, 5th and 23rd ranked guys who medaled and in 2012, it was the 6th, 24th and 23rd ranked guys who medaled. Clearly not a huge correlation between ranking and medal potential. If anything there's a negative correlation. That being said, I don't think Hocker would beat Tim C in a fast race - maybe in a tactical race on a good day - but I definitely think he can medal in a tactical race.

Hey, would you please stop it with all the facts, we are trying to have good old emotional argument here!

And don't forget...the shoes! The Shoes! THE SHOES! They change EVERYTHING!

If Hocker makes the Olympic team, it would be a victory just to reach the finals. The fact that he let himself get boxed in before the final lap is not good. You have to expend the extra energy on positioning. I think Hocker needs a lot more experience before he can race well against seasoned pros.

Sorry, you're right! Hocker is a joke and will never make a world team. Also he's a cheater for spike-doping. Something something Centrowitz something something Jakob is my white savior.

DC Wonk wrote:

If Hocker makes the Olympic team, it would be a victory just to reach the finals. The fact that he let himself get boxed in before the final lap is not good. You have to expend the extra energy on positioning. I think Hocker needs a lot more experience before he can race well against seasoned pros.

He's not going to make the team and won't because of that and another thing. First off the trials race is almost never fast, or even fast enough to get under the standard. He needs the standard. If we go off world ranking, I don't believe his ranking is currently high enough to put him in a position to make the team even if he places top 3. However, there is a SLIM chance that could change since the rankings are as of June 8th.

Going to tactics, like I said it's typically not fast. It gets bunched up. And we know he has 5k strength but if he goes in the 1500, we have Centro who has strength and speed and Engels who has crazy speed the last lap. And of course others who could race the 1500 anything can happen. You guys have way too high expectations for this man he's only 20. He is the future for sure and if he doesn't make the team this year so what?

Hocker, Kessler, Nuguse for the team.

For anyone counting, Nuguse closing in 1:49.27, finished within a second (0.98 seconds) of his lifetime best at 800m (1:48.29).

Hocker coming in at 1:48.85, completed his final 800m within 2.5 (2.46) seconds of his open 800m PR.

flat earther anti-vax wrote:

Ackley wrote:

A lot more egregious than the kid from New Jersey that was DQed.

+1

Did Nuguse and UND file a protest? If not, why not? There was at least enough evidence of interference to file a protest. Nuguse's face clearly showed that.

Again, did UND coaches file a protest?

messi wrote:

flat earther anti-vax wrote:

+1

Did Nuguse and UND file a protest? If not, why not? There was at least enough evidence of interference to file a protest. Nuguse's face clearly showed that.

Again, did UND coaches file a protest?

Hocker didn't need to move back into lane 1, but he never impeded Nuguse. Thinking otherwise is just foolish. Look at the replay.

rocky mtns wrote:

messi wrote:

Did Nuguse and UND file a protest? If not, why not? There was at least enough evidence of interference to file a protest. Nuguse's face clearly showed that.

Again, did UND coaches file a protest?

Hocker didn't need to move back into lane 1, but he never impeded Nuguse. Thinking otherwise is just foolish. Look at the replay.

You look at the replay. Hocker crowded Nuguse into the rail. At least worthy of a protest. Does a protest cost $2k to lodge?

+1

If Hocker can both Q into the Olympics, and is able to maintain this type of closing speed, there's always a chance.

2013 World Champs, Moscow

1500m final (800m split -> finish time; final 100m/200m)

Kiprop, 2:00.43 -> 3:36.28 (12.52/26.98)

Centro: 2:00.65 -> 3:36.78 (12.91/26.96)

Cronje: 2:00.92 -> 3:36.83 (12.81/26.70)

Chepseba: 1:59.35 -> 3:36.87 (13.23/27.13)

Two guys split 26.70 (Cronje and 5th placer, Homiyu) around the final bend, fastest closing of those championships. Neither won. No one ran faster than 3:36.2.

London 2017 had two sub 1:58s in eventual champ Managoi and runner-up Cheruiyot, followed by Kiprop in 1:58 and a string of 1:59s. The fastest medal-winning placer (3rd) nearest 2:00 was F Ingebrigtsen, who opened in 1:59.04 and closed his 3:34.53 in 40.50 over his final 300m. That has Cole Hocker written all over it.

Byu protesting all distance events. Because. They're byu. Nothing like watching 26yo men with eligibility gaming the system. Do your mission after college if you really don't want to cheat.

malmo wrote:

train wheels wrote:

He has to have the worst running form of any NCAA champ. My goodness, those arms look like he’s milking a cow!!

You should be taking notes. What separates him is that he goes to the arms when he kicks.

And leading with his chin hurts him.

He is just a baller

Once again, show me a race where Cheruiyot has run tactically. He knows he can win by front running so he does it every single time. Yes, in the normal run if things you have a good chance if a tactical race in a global final, but this is different. The best athlete in the event is a front runner who can run 3:28 gun to tape. He has no incentive to make it tactical. And where you get a front runner, the field follows, as in the 2012 800m.

Hocker's time as a sit and kick artist will come, but it's not this year, and won't be until Cheruiyot loses form or confidence. Maybe 2024

I really hate those thousands of athletes who redshirt so that they can compete in a 5th year. Cheaters.

Thank you. And to all those who laughed and scoffed at the initial idea that Hocker would have the ability to mix it with the likes of Jakob I - I'm so happy he stuffed it in your faces yesterday so emphatically. Ye of little faith or track and field knowledge.

Final point on this - the 5000m final. Was running today and have to say I don't understand this move (Hocker running it). I get the surface logic - probably a combination of "points for the team" and "make the kid tough for rounds of the 15" but to me that in reality serves nothing more than to fatigue him unnecessarily. You aren't "adding toughness" at this point in the season 2 weeks out from the trials. He should have been in full Roger Bannister mode after that 15 final as in it's a diet of jogging and sleeping from now on until maybe that week of the trials when he maybe needs a short session to rev the motor up again.

Despite the brilliance yesterday - world class brilliance, I don't think he's a sure thing to make the team. Guys like Centro, Engels etc are slowly building towards Sunday the 27th for a reason. It's hard to imagine Hocker is improving on where he was at yesterday - and there are still 15 days until the final. I just feel like the 5000m was super unnecessary at this point.