“The president is an idiot,” – US Air Force General John Hyten
Sally Vix wrote:
Smorburn - were you....
^irrelevant post unread
07/25 Data
Trends all in place and they are very bad.
7 day average of daily deaths.
US: new cyclical high
world: new cyclical high
Brazil: new high
India: new high
FL: new high
TX: new high
CA: new high
AZ: On a plateau just shy of a new high
4 problem states: new high
4 problem states now compared to a week ago: 17% higher.
I'm watching carefully the rate of growth of the 7 day average in the four problem states. That rate of growth has been slowing...slowly. A few percent a day. Now it is 17%. Getting a negative sign into that stat would be a great sign.
One reasonable scenario is a vastly improved covid story in the fall that gets trump within the margin of error and then it's a close race again.
The Fox News version of the world.
Dem leadership needs to stop the arsonists and violent protesters.
This is going to hand milions of votes to trump. Trump should have to list these rowdy guys as contributors to their campaign. dems need to stop them.
Headlines from foxnews.com.
American mayhem: More rioting and lawlessness in cities across USPortland rioters use 'cover of crowd' to commit crimes, launch fireworks at officersDHS’ Cuccinelli: Goal of 'violent anarchists' participating in riots is 'destruction'NEWT GINGRICH: How politicians are setting up police to failWidow of NYPD sergeant on protests against police: 'heartbroken' over 'what's happening across the nation'DHS Secretary Wolf says Portland protests different from 'normal criminal activity'
Sally Vix wrote:
Smorbun wrote:
RCP shows a new state with a Biden lead over Trump, a state that had been previously tied.
Ohio
Biden currently leads Trump in all of these RCP-defined battleground states: OH, PA, MN, MI, WI, FL, NC, AZ, NV, NH, ME, VA, CO, NM. Biden is up by 7 points in FL. That is insane.
Biden is in play in TX, IA, GA.
This is going to be a bloodbath with Biden the clear winner.
334 electoral votes minimum for Biden.
Smorburn - were you one of the clowns guaranteeing a Hillary landslide 4 years ago?
I try to minimize election predictions—especially long before the voting on election day—but I consider this prediction one of the easiest I have ever made.
Hillary Clinton will win by a landslide against Donald Trump. I expect her to win 46 states, and if I am wrong, it is equally likely she will win more than 46 states in November, rather than less.
FBI Director James Comey will announce that he is not recommending a criminal prosecution in the Clinton email case, which will give her a tremendous boost. To understand the full magnitude of Clinton’s coming victory consider the news over the last week, which is a sneak preview of the future.
After Trump attacked the judge in the case against him about Trump University, falsely saying the judge is a “Mexican” in terms that even some conservatives and Republicans condemned as racist, virtually every senior Republican across the landscape of the national GOP harshly criticized Trump’s attacking the judge.
At one point the lead story on the front page of The New York Times quoted prominent authorities on justice and law, including several who are staunch Republicans and conservatives, worrying that the election Trump could literally pose a threat to the rule of law and the constitutional separation of powers.
Clinton responded with outrage and with a strong and sustained political attack against Trump that was universally bannered in the media, which rallied Democrats and appealed to independents who will be crucial in November.
While Clinton was on the offensive over Trump’s attacks on the judge and Trump University, the news was full of interviews with former customers of Trump University who claimed they were defrauded and former employees who publicly charged that they were put under pressure to engage in unethical business practices and decided to resign.
I am not judging which party should or will prevail in the Trump University case. That is for the court to decide based on the evidence. The Trump camp has produced favorable reviews by other customers of Trump University, and at some point, probably after the election, the court will decide the ultimate outcome of the case, as other courts will decide the outcome of similar cases.
Whether Trump University did anything wrong—and I am offering no opinion about this—the political problem for Trump and Republicans will be that between now and election day there will be more stories in all media about Trump University customers and employees charging fraud.
While Clinton has at times taken some heat from reporters who believe she has not made herself as open and accessible to them as they would like, Trump’s all-out attacks against the media—which were reminiscent of a former vice president named Spiro Agnew—were offensive to virtually all professional members of the media.
Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan was highly embarrassed when, after announcing his support for Trump, he was forced to spend the next several days harshly criticizing the GOP nominee he had just announced his support for.
Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, whose GOP majority is threatened by strong prospects of a Democratic takeover, was forced to criticize Trump repeatedly over the weekend as his Senate Republican candidates were forced by local media to either defend Trump, or in most cases, join senior Republicans in deploring his comments.
Clinton continued her attack throughout this period while the free media, reporting on events, gave her ammunition for her offensive while Republicans were running for cover as Trump kept doubling down on his name-calling.
There are several main factors contributing to the high likelihood of a Clinton landslide in November.
The former first lady, United States senator and secretary of state begins with a huge advantage in qualifications for the presidency. She has a worldwide stature and credibility at home and internationally as a highly qualified candidate for the presidency.
At the very moment Trump achieved the status of presumptive nominee, which guaranteed a much higher degree of scrutiny and a much greater need for him to establish his presidential-calibre bona fides, he continued his practice of insulting and berating many Republicans as well as Democrats and then began insulting and berating many in the media who will be reporting on whether Trump is qualified to be president, or not!
As a result, the enormous advantage Clinton possesses in presidential qualifications and stature in the eyes of voters and the press grew even wider with every new insult Trump offers, and doubles down on, day after day.
Another huge advantage Clinton and Democrats possess is the mathematics of the electoral college. Usually Republicans have the advantage in midterm elections because they are likely to achieve a stronger turnout than Democrats, while Democrats have the advantage in presidential elections because their turnout will be higher and, even more, because the state-by-state breakdown of electoral college math gives Democrats the edge.
Because of the insulting and divisive style of the Trump campaign, the Democratic electoral advantage will be even greater than previous presidential elections. The prospect of a Trump presidency will galvanize Democratic voters to come out in huge numbers, generate a wave of anti-Trump Hispanic voters that could win key states for Democrats in both the presidential and senate elections and alienate and alarm many female, independent and younger voters.
During the last week voters witnessed Clinton launching and escalating her attack, Trump put on the defensive and repeating his controversial insults against the judge and the media, while leading Republicans either ran for cover or ran to the television cameras to denounce the latest insult from Trump.
Anything is possible in presidential politics, but things are shaping up to produce a Democratic landslide for Hillary Clinton similar to the landslide of Lyndon Johnson over Barry Goldwater in 1964.
Disclosure: Donald Trump is the father-in-law of Jared Kushner, the publisher of Observer Media.
https://observer.com/2016/06/hillary-clinton-will-win-by-a-landslide-against-donald-trump/
Why are you here? None of us here want to hear from a "man" who brags on the internet about berating his wife. Go away, loser.
agip wrote:
One reasonable scenario is a vastly improved covid story in the fall that gets trump within the margin of error and then it's a close race again.
A more succinct summary of what I've been saying to some folks for a while now. Well done.
Come on, who *wants* more people to die from COVID-19 between now and the fall? I'd be thrilled if it just went away tomorrow--disappeared, so to speak. That's not realistic, but it's not unreasonable to think we could be on the downside of the first wave by Hallowe'en. Then it's a question of whether people are more influenced by the improved situation, or by the 200-250k (estimated) American deaths that will have accumulated by then.
The wild card IMO is the economy. Short-term, August is looking bleak in part (but only in part) because of the Senate's inaction and resulting losses of income and evictions. Longer-term, I think the economy is going to be *really* bad in 2021 and well into 2022, no matter who's President, and vaccine or no; then the question is whether in the fall people will start to glimpse that longer-term situation, or will be more governed by just what's going on in October/November. (I think it's safe to predict the markets will still look fairly strong at least through Election Day. A lot of people will be doing things to shore them up temporarily.)
TL, DR: It ain't over. I'm one of the people who's surprised that The Gap on 538 is staying at 15+%, but I certainly expect that to be back to single digits by the end of September. I'd love to be wrong--I think the Trump Experiment has failed and that he and his Senate enablers need to be gone--but history tells us the presidential race is going to tighten up considerably.
agip wrote:
I'm watching carefully the rate of growth of the 7 day average in the four problem states. That rate of growth has been slowing...slowly. A few percent a day. Now it is 17%. Getting a negative sign into that stat would be a great sign.
At the national level, new cases was pretty flat versus the previous week, so the expectation is that deaths could peak in the next few weeks, but a significant drop in death count prior to mid-August would be a surprise.
One reasonable scenario is a vastly improved covid story in the fall that gets trump within the margin of error and then it's a close race again.
I don't know how that can happen barring a miracle treatment. The only ways to control contagion at this point are economically damaging. For now we're stuck with a selection of bad choices.
agip wrote:
The Fox News version of the world.
Dem leadership needs to stop the arsonists and violent protesters.
This is going to hand milions of votes to trump. Trump should have to list these rowdy guys as contributors to their campaign. dems need to stop them.
Headlines from foxnews.com.
American mayhem: More rioting and lawlessness in cities across USPortland rioters use 'cover of crowd' to commit crimes, launch fireworks at officersDHS’ Cuccinelli: Goal of 'violent anarchists' participating in riots is 'destruction'NEWT GINGRICH: How politicians are setting up police to failWidow of NYPD sergeant on protests against police: 'heartbroken' over 'what's happening across the nation'DHS Secretary Wolf says Portland protests different from 'normal criminal activity'
I am genuinely saddened by some of the awful events that are taking place, across the country, during this Trump administration.
Republican senator Tom Cotton thinks slavery was a "necessary evil". From interview with the Arkansas Gazette"
“We have to study the history of slavery and its role and impact on the development of our country because otherwise we can’t understand our country. As the Founding Fathers said, it was the necessary evil upon which the union was built, but the union was built in a way, as Lincoln said, to put slavery on the course to its ultimate extinction,” he said.
I can't find any founding father who described slavery as a "necessary evil". Even if George Washington had said it, it takes a very warped person to agree with that today.
Tom Cotton is an unnecessary evil and he should not be in the US Senate.
Fat hurts wrote:
Republican senator Tom Cotton thinks slavery was a "necessary evil".
From interview with the Arkansas Gazette"
“We have to study the history of slavery and its role and impact on the development of our country because otherwise we can’t understand our country. As the Founding Fathers said, it was the necessary evil upon which the union was built, but the union was built in a way, as Lincoln said, to put slavery on the course to its ultimate extinction,” he said.
I can't find any founding father who described slavery as a "necessary evil". Even if George Washington had said it, it takes a very warped person to agree with that today.
Tom Cotton is an unnecessary evil and he should not be in the US Senate.
Tommy Cotton does not know the horrors of slave history. CNN has a revealing article for those who were not aware of how bad the slavery was.
-- More slave men than women were imported.
-- Most of the men were not allowed to procreate. Only the strongest, fittest slaves were.
-- The slave women were often abused and raped by the white owner. This is why most American blacks have some European heritage, much to the surprise of some of them.
-- Slaves sent to some plantations (rice) encountered new diseases, to them, that decimated them. They were simply buried and replaced. This is like being forced to work with COVID-19 and zero protection.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/26/us/dna-transatlantic-slave-trade-study-scn-trnd/index.htmlOh, the image showing people packed in the ship to work as slaves is accurate. They were shoulder to shoulder for an entire slow-going ocean voyage. Those the died or were very ill were tossed over-board.
God does not approved of Tom Cotton's opinion that slavery was a necessary evil. Slavery includes all of the horrors associated with. It was not like in "Gone With the Wind."
I don't know whether the Republican Voters Against Trump ads will change any votes, but some of them are really powerful. This guy is obviously worked up.
The liberals have made a bit of a comeback, but the Trump people may still prevail in November.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
More evidence that these coronavirus death counts in FL are a complete scam. How many more states are juicing the numbers? Plenty, I would bet.
60-year-old man who died from a gun shot wound to the head.
90-year-old man who fell and died from complications of a hip fracture.
77-year-old woman who died of Parkinson's disease.
All counted as COVID-19 deaths in Palm Beach County.
https://cbs12.com/news/local/i-team-deaths-incorrectly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-palm-beach-county
The numbers from Florida might be a compete scam, but the scam is that they grossly undercount the number of cases and deaths from Covid 19, because the governor has hitched the state's wagon to the "coronavirus is a hoax" crowd. You know, the crowd that said this is just like the flu, is harmless unless you're over 90 and already on death's door, and that it would be gone with the warm weather. The crowd that's been wrong about this virus every step of the way.
Trump is probably going to lose the election, and his clownish incompetence in handling the virus will be the reason why. The virus gave him the opportunity to show his leadership qualities; instead we got "I don't take responsibility at all". With the election, we're not even talking about PA, MI, WI anymore; now we're talking about FL, AZ, NC, and of all places TX.
https://www.npr.org/2020/06/29/884551391/florida-scientist-says-she-was-fired-for-not-manipulating-covid-19-dataRIP Repugs wrote:
-- The slave women were often abused and raped by the white owner. This is why most American blacks have some European heritage, much to the surprise of some of them.
And vice versa. If you are a white American whose family is from the South, there is a pretty good chance you have some slave heritage.
here's a fun trump tweet.
Insulting Reagan's legacy, Paul Ryan and Fox News.
Keep it up, old boy, keep it up. We agree on something!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1287455273473507330?s=20
Fat hurts wrote:
RIP Repugs wrote:
-- The slave women were often abused and raped by the white owner. This is why most American blacks have some European heritage, much to the surprise of some of them.
And vice versa. If you are a white American whose family is from the South, there is a pretty good chance you have some slave heritage.
Indeed.
Some interesting graphics about that.
https://www.vox.com/2014/12/22/7431391/guess-where-white-americans-have-the-most-african-ancestrySmorbun wrote:
Tinkerbell Belle wrote:
The GOP is less a white nationalist party than the Democrat party is controlled by black nationalists. 99% of the GOP are law-abiding love-America working class folks whereas the Democrat party is comprised of socialist white elites and blacks who hate America.
What a bunch of BS. The GOP under Donald Trump has embraced white nationalism, racism, wishing rather than science, and authoritarianism. The epitome of hating America is embracing white nationalism and authoritarianism. If you want to talk about socialism, look no further than the farmer bailout that Trump provided following his destruction of their businesses due to tariffs.
Trump is a loser. Anyone who supports him is one also.
Yikes.
Trollminator wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Smorburn - were you....
^irrelevant post unread
Why bother even saying anything at all?
Here are some potential prominent Republicans that may openly endorse Biden going into the election:
George W Bush
Mitt Romney
Colin Powell
The McCain family
We also may see some retired generals endorse Biden.
Maybe some former Trump staffers.
Are there any respected major political figures that will endorse Trump who aren’t working for him at the moment?