Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

Then people wonder why the US finds itself embarrassed each day...

https://twitter.com/aravosis/status/1282678312452665344?s=20

I see a poster said RCP has TX as a tie. That is still HUGE news. Last week TX was up 2.5 points according to RealClearPolitics.com

Trump's job approval is now down to 41.1. WOW! That is insanely bad.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Norpoth's Primary Model still says Trump has a 91% chance of re-election, but there are a few glaring things to note:

1) His model uses how well each candidate did in their primaries. Trump wasn't allowed to have an opponent in many states, and the sitting President doesn't typically have a big competitor there anyway.

2) Voters for Democrat challengers Sanders and Warren have almost unanimously sided with Biden as the results of the contested Democratic primary show.

3) The Primary Model site has a chart depicting early leaders who then lost the general election. Most of those "early" leaders were from March and April of the election year, and the latest was June of the election year. We are now mid July with Biden's lead continuing to expand. Should be noted that Biden is ahead much further than Hillary was at this point. Hillary was up 6% in May of 2016. Biden is up anywhere from 9-15% nationally depending on what you look at, so at a minimum up 50% from where Hillary was in MAY, and we are in mid July.

Cheating has already happened, so anything can happen with cheating, and the cheating isn't for sure done either, BUT, that being said, it is very difficult to see a winning path for Trump right now. Norpoth is predicting a 362-176 electoral college victory for Trump. That just doesn't make any logical sense at all and in fact is about exactly opposite of what is more likely to happen. The fact that Biden is leading in some polls in Texas is insane.

Going to be interesting.

Pro Tip: When "Trump is currently tied with Biden (in a state that Trump won by 9 points in 2016)" is your strongest argument, then things aren't really going your way.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

TX is a tie, per RCP.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html

Dementia Joe will NEVER be POTUS

My sister and brother, and their families moved to TX from CA. They are democrats. TX has been pilfering businesses from other states, mostly blue one. It was expected by political pundits that TX would flip blue in 2024 or 2028 and remain blue for long time. That flip looks like it will happen in 2020.

The links below are pre-COVID-19.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

TX is a tie, per RCP.

Well that's not a good sign for a Republican candidate.

Should be a cake walk.

Worth noting that The Gap is back *below* 15 percentage points:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Corona Don

https://twitter.com/i/status/1282760237225836546

Trollminator wrote:

Corona Don

https://twitter.com/i/status/1282760237225836546

A global pandemic and we have a reality TV celebrity and his idiot son in law to solve it ?

Well, ok then wrote:

Pro Tip: When "Trump is currently tied with Biden (in a state that Trump won by 9 points in 2016)" is your strongest argument, then things aren't really going your way.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

TX is a tie, per RCP.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html

Dementia Joe will NEVER be POTUS

Wait until the debates. The polls will show a Trump surge in yhr polls.

This will be Cankles 2.0

Norpoth is rarely wrong. Your batting average absolutely sucks when it comes to your predictions.

Cankles 2.0 is coming

Mueller never

?pole forever

It is important, and I completely get that view. I will admit that while I would LOVE to see Harris over Warren (for many reasons), I am very short-sighted here. Donald Trump is actually amoral and possibly a psychopath. I am not aware of any other current Republican who has those horrible qualities. Most of them have enabled that behavior, but they would stop well short of engaging in that behavior. I can deal with future Republican presidents who just have different values than I do as long as they are not criminal and amoral.

So, while a silver lining will be a great VP pick who might be able to lead the party for years to come, I can't get excited about that at all. Trump needs to be gone. The poison must be removed.

That would be cool. I've heard lots of "X party will never..." before. Doesn't take much to turn things. Horrible decision by a governor, recession, etc.

Here's some dumb fool in Florida refusing to wear a mask and having a meltdown. The insurance company he worked for fired him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcocrzC-CrE

This virus is no joke. People HAVE to go to the grocery store, and he was supposed to be wearing a mask, so he was endangering the lives of other people. Florida is spiking in cases and deaths like no other state so far because of the bad leadership of Trump and its idiot Republican Governor DeSantis. Glad that this woman asked him to put on a mask.

He yelled, "I feel threatened!" Threatened by an elderly woman. What a loser.

Trump is going to lose big. He's freakin' insane with stupid ass followers.

Flagpole wrote:

Trump is going to lose big. He's freakin' insane with stupid ass followers.

Famous last words.

He has tens of millions of followers. At this point he should be rated no worse than 50/50 for re-election, if not slightly favored. Much is going to happen between now and November.

Flagpole wrote:

Here's some dumb fool in Florida refusing to wear a mask and having a meltdown. The insurance company he worked for fired him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcocrzC-CrE

How about a white couple attacking a black women hotel worker with the manly man punching her, throwing her to the floor and then kicking her in the head? This happened last month and the couple was finally arrested. What a "man."

formerly present wrote:

He has tens of millions of followers. At this point he should be rated no worse than 50/50 for re-election, if not slightly favored. Much is going to happen between now and November.

^ infamous last words

formerly present wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

Trump is going to lose big. He's freakin' insane with stupid ass followers.

Famous last words.

He has tens of millions of followers. At this point he should be rated no worse than 50/50 for re-election, if not slightly favored. Much is going to happen between now and November.

We will see. I have already said Trump might win due to the cheating he has already done and perhaps has done without our knowledge or will do still. It is now impossible for him to win fairly. I don't see a 50-50 chance or even favored for Trump to win at all. He barely won in 2016, and he has lost from that base, also not picking up more voters. Tens of millions of followers isn't enough.

BUT, he pissed Michigan off. That was STUPID. He and DeSantis have wrecked Florida. That was STUPID. He is losing in all the traditional swing states except for OH where he is tied, and now he is winning in NC and tied in TX (with a couple of polls saying Biden is winning in TX).

He is sinking fast. I do not see a path to victory for him, so I'm calling it. I was right about Obama beating Romney. I was right that Trump could not beat Hillary unless he cheated, and I am in a no-lose situation this time as I have VERY CLEARLY this time said time and time again that if Trump cheats my prediction is null and void. Well, he has already cheated. So, I say Biden is going to win, and I think he'll win easily.

I think he wins 320+ electoral votes. It will be a historic beating if Biden wins Texas. Insane that that's even a possibility.

What's 50/50 is whether there will be any debates at all. I think zero chance of more than one debate.

So ?polian & saved for election night.

Flagpole wrote:

Here's some dumb fool in Florida refusing to wear a mask and having a meltdown. The insurance company he worked for fired him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcocrzC-CrE

This virus is no joke. People HAVE to go to the grocery store, and he was supposed to be wearing a mask, so he was endangering the lives of other people. Florida is spiking in cases and deaths like no other state so far because of the bad leadership of Trump and its idiot Republican Governor DeSantis. Glad that this woman asked him to put on a mask.

He yelled, "I feel threatened!" Threatened by an elderly woman. What a loser.

Trump is going to lose big. He's freakin' insane with stupid ass followers.

Another anxiety-riddled beta male, trumper to the core without a shred of doubt. But surely he feels HE is the victim here, especially of some cancel culture attack. If he acted like a real man he might still have his dignity and his job. He’s lucky he didn’t get jumped by some Good Samaritan.