Seems like a lot of the same teams are in it year after year. Also don't be surprised if Creek comes out of nowhere. Seems like Abby Roberts has led the team back to a podium level threat. Look out for the top teams to make a trip to NXN.
Boys:
1) Mason (A lot of people think Massillon Jackson, but they just can't get it done)
2) Massillon Jackson
3) St. Xavier
4) Worthington Kilbourne
5) Chardon
Seems like a down year on the team side for the boys.
And also another year when no boys teams qualify for NXN
D1 boys teams that exceeded their preseason poll rankings the most: Miamisburg (was 5-deep) Mass. Perry (placed 8th, but would have placed top 2 if they had a 5th)
St. Xavier and Mason will always been in the hunt, at least for now. They’re like Alabama and Ohio State football. Just reload.
Not only that, but they always have very deep nonsenior classes with 5 or 7 nonseniors under 17, and they can always have a guy or 2 have an off race or sitting out and still win
The most glaring thing for the boys, I think, is that Lancaster is too low. If they can tighten up their 5 a bit they have a really good team. Davidson should also be higher, We will get a better measure of St X after this weekend. Medina is listed twice!
I think it's less about tightening up, and more about the Lanoys being able to front run. Lancaster is deep, but right now they wouldn't have anyone inside 30th at states.
Regarding Mason, nobody is ever a lock. It's really hard to win one state title, so much has to go right all season long. Exponentially harder to win two in a row. Don't give them the trophy yet, it will be a long and exciting road to state.
They almost failed to win it this year. And winning 3 in a row (which is what they are going for next year) is even harder. Mas Jackson is another team to watch out for.
Even though I use the same device most of the time. I get messages something like "someone else is already using this username" or "this username is being used on a different device. Just really annoying. I've just been adding periods to the same username. I sure as hell don't want to register here.
Speed ratings have been a thing for a while now but I really don't much about them. How do they work, exactly? Is course difficulty taken into account similar to what milepsplit tried to do with course ratings?
In one instance I noticed that Lakota West sophomoreEvelyn Prodoehl is in the speed ratings with a 18:21.9 that she ran at the Obetz early season OHSAA meet. She ran a 17:57 a week later at VOA park in West Chester. While neither course could ever be called "difficult," Obetz is not appreciably more difficult than VOA so I don't understand her have a spped rating there with no mention of the VOA time.
I'm sure that there are other instances of this but I haven't really taken the time to scour the data.
The thing about Mas Jackson is that they have no seniors this year.
I still think mason will win state this year because of their depth and the fact that they return 5 sub-16 guys, and maybe go to NXN unless Center Grove gets everyone healthy and puts all pieces together at NXR (Carmel is easily #1 in Midwest until proven otherwise). But next year Mas Jackson should win state unless mason finds some people that will help reload
Westerville North and Worthington Kilbourne would like to enter the chat for next year.
Kilbourne has a better 1-2 than Jackson. Smith is a top-10 guy right now (narrowly losing to Ricchuitti at Pickerington), and Miller thumped both Ilg and Zuckett at state (29th) and then NXR (1st in 9/10) last fall. He typically starts slow and then comes on very strong in October. Their #3, Hawkins (16:19 at PickN), is also better than Jacksons #3. If their 4-5 (young) can develop, they definitely can beat Jackson. These two middle schools went 1-2 a few years back at OHSAA MS Invite, by the way.
However... Westerville North may be better than both of these teams next year. Gabelman is a 4:12 guy as a soph and has a legit chance to break Kennedy's WN 1600 record. He's a XC individual title threat in 2023. They're a top 10 team currently, and only lose Bracken next year. They are stacked with 16:30-17:00 guys (Mazak, Dellasanta, Carlos, Kerns, etc) who are young - mostly sophs - and hungry.
Westerville North needs to focus on making state first before even thinking about winning state.
He is clearly the favorite but I wonder how much pressure is on him since he has typically been the brides maid lately. Will he rise to the occasion or will he tighten up and open the door for someone else.
I looked it up, Schachleiter from Mason broke the neck of his hip at 2020 regionals. So whatever he's does is pretty impressive.