The Shallow State @OurShallowState Trump doesn't really want to be President. What he wants, is unlimited wealth, ability to grift, immunity, adoration, no accountability for crimes, and above all, legitimization of his self-professed grandiosity, all of which the presidency will give him. He does, however, need the presidency, at this point in time. The alternative for him, is prison or flight. All these discussions the press reports on every day, about what Trump says, and what he'll do - they're not properly contextualized. He himself would be golfing and schmoozing and bloviating. It's the people he'd put in place and the ideologies he'd empower, that would endanger the American experiment. He's the emissary ... the parasite ... the carrier.
Dems could care less about the death in wars they pay for. As long as Camela gets to wear an ear piece and have cliff notes during the debate, then they are satisfied that the playing field has been made level.
They give Harris 59% chance to win. Sounds pretty good unless you know they gave Clinton a 71.4% chance to win in 2016 and Biden an 89% chance in 2020.
That means 59% is a loss.
And her numbers will only go down from here.
Odds makers set lines to get people to put money on both sides of an issue so that no matter who wins they make money. They’re just trying to get degenerate Democrats to throw money on the Kamala side of the line right now.
Taking PA as an example, the polls as of Election Day in 2020 had Biden up by 4.7. Biden won PA by a little over a point (1.17). So the polls were off by about 3.5 points.
In Michigan, the polls had Biden ahead in 2020 by 7.9; he won the state by about 2.8 points. So the polls were off there by about 5.1 points.
Call it 'vastly' if you want.
As I said, the pollsters have recognized that they were off. They are trying to adjust for the underestimation of Trump support. Supposedly, the polls in 2022 were more accurate. So while I think it's a mistake to put too much stock in polls, I also think it's a mistake to assume that Trump's support is going to far exceed what the polls are predicting. It's the kind of question that will only be answered after Election Day.
Add 3.5 or 5.1 pts for the polls understatement and 2 pts for RFK and it's a runaway. Trump was not in office or running for office in 2022
That happens only in Trump fantasy land.
RFK is not worth 2 points.
You're making the mistake of assuming that the polls will be inaccurate this year to the same degree that they were in 2020. That's unlikely, but we'll see.
The Democrats attempt to defend their disinformation and social media manipulation campaign:
"When confronted with a deadly pandemic, this administration encouraged responsible actions to protect public health and safety. Our position has been clear and consistent: we believe tech companies and other private actors should take into account the effects their actions have on the American people, while making independent choices about the information they present."
They purposefully hid data that didn’t abide with their position and actively pressured social media companies to aid in their disinformation campaign. Free speech and personal liberty were crushed during the Biden / Harris administration.
Add 3.5 or 5.1 pts for the polls understatement and 2 pts for RFK and it's a runaway. Trump was not in office or running for office in 2022
That happens only in Trump fantasy land.
RFK is not worth 2 points.
You're making the mistake of assuming that the polls will be inaccurate this year to the same degree that they were in 2020. That's unlikely, but we'll see.
WaPo has a cool feature - with a click you can apply the 2020 and 2016 underpolling by Trump to 2024 polls, to see its effect on 2024, should the underpolling be repeated.
Yes, Trump would still win today if either the 2016 or 2020 underpolling repeats.
Question is if polling companies have made an adjustment given their error rate from 2016 and 2020. I read that one of them has...not sure about the rest but I assume many if not all have made some change to prevent it from happening again. but that's just an assumption.
They give Harris 59% chance to win. Sounds pretty good unless you know they gave Clinton a 71.4% chance to win in 2016 and Biden an 89% chance in 2020.
That means 59% is a loss.
And her numbers will only go down from here.
Odds makers set lines to get people to put money on both sides of an issue so that no matter who wins they make money. They’re just trying to get degenerate Democrats to throw money on the Kamala side of the line right now.
Add 3.5 or 5.1 pts for the polls understatement and 2 pts for RFK and it's a runaway. Trump was not in office or running for office in 2022
That happens only in Trump fantasy land.
RFK is not worth 2 points.
You're making the mistake of assuming that the polls will be inaccurate this year to the same degree that they were in 2020. That's unlikely, but we'll see.
So they vastly understated Trump support in 2016 and 2020 but have it right this year because in he year 2024, they have it all figured out?
You're making the mistake of assuming that the polls will be inaccurate this year to the same degree that they were in 2020. That's unlikely, but we'll see.
WaPo has a cool feature - with a click you can apply the 2020 and 2016 underpolling by Trump to 2024 polls, to see its effect on 2024, should the underpolling be repeated.
Yes, Trump would still win today if either the 2016 or 2020 underpolling repeats.
Question is if polling companies have made an adjustment given their error rate from 2016 and 2020. I read that one of them has...not sure about the rest but I assume many if not all have made some change to prevent it from happening again. but that's just an assumption.
NoelCaslerComedy @caslernoel Any official news agency that went along with Trump’s stunt at Arlington yesterday should be ashamed. It was dreamed up by cretins like Scavino and filmed in 4k for distribution to the public. Right wing influencers than spread it around the douche-o-sphere, AKA M@GA with pithy commentary like ‘Shouldn’t the President of the United States be doing this’ with the assertion that Biden was somehow MIA. The networks that carried it live didn’t educate their viewers as to the facts of Afghanistan withdrawal as it pertained to Trump’s disastrous foreign policy and his ass kissing of the Taliban. The end result is Trump pulled off another PR stunt and a giant free campaign ad.
Question for the Dems here ... don't you want to know Kamala's policy position and know why they are different from 4 years ago? Will you vote for her merely because she is a Democrat? She refuses all interviews, debates and everything else. Wouldn't you like to know her positions on the major issues before voting for her? If she is as radically left as many of conservatives think, does that bother you at all?
NoelCaslerComedy @caslernoel Any official news agency that went along with Trump’s stunt at Arlington yesterday should be ashamed. It was dreamed up by cretins like Scavino and filmed in 4k for distribution to the public. Right wing influencers than spread it around the douche-o-sphere, AKA M@GA with pithy commentary like ‘Shouldn’t the President of the United States be doing this’ with the assertion that Biden was somehow MIA. The networks that carried it live didn’t educate their viewers as to the facts of Afghanistan withdrawal as it pertained to Trump’s disastrous foreign policy and his ass kissing of the Taliban. The end result is Trump pulled off another PR stunt and a giant free campaign ad.
Anyone who believes this BS take should be ashamed.
The "stunt" was Biden showing up at Dover for his photo op when the 13 service members he murdered were brought home. He had no interest in being there so he looked at his watch the whole time.
Biden and Harris have both been completely MIA on these families and their fallen loved ones.
The disastrous Afghan withdrawal is 100% on Biden. It was a conditional withdrawal and Biden completely ignored the conditions and went about the withdrawal in the most incompetent manner possible.
The last thing you leftist idiots want is for you cult to be "educated" about the facts.
Question for the Dems here ... don't you want to know Kamala's policy position and know why they are different from 4 years ago? Will you vote for her merely because she is a Democrat? She refuses all interviews, debates and everything else. Wouldn't you like to know her positions on the major issues before voting for her? If she is as radically left as many of conservatives think, does that bother you at all?
Harris has been running for 4 weeks. Trump has been running for 114 weeks Here are some of Harris policies. Please share details of Trump's policies that you like.
Medical Debt Relief: She plans to eliminate medical debt for millions of Americans. Prescription Drug Costs: She plans to cap the costs of prescription drugs. Homeownership: She is planning to offer a $25,000 subsidy for first-time homebuyers to make homeownership more accessible. Child Tax Credit: She plans on introducing a $6,000 Child Tax Credit for the first year of a child's life. Taxing Corporations at a higher rate: This includes raising the corporate tax rates to 28% from 21%. Abortion and Reproductive Rights: Harris has made abortion rights a central issue, advocating for access to contraception and fertility care. No Taxes on Tips up to $75,000 per year. Unlike Trump, Harris’ team is looking to limit the policy to only those making under a certain threshold.
NoelCaslerComedy @caslernoel Any official news agency that went along with Trump’s stunt at Arlington yesterday should be ashamed. It was dreamed up by cretins like Scavino and filmed in 4k for distribution to the public. Right wing influencers than spread it around the douche-o-sphere, AKA M@GA with pithy commentary like ‘Shouldn’t the President of the United States be doing this’ with the assertion that Biden was somehow MIA. The networks that carried it live didn’t educate their viewers as to the facts of Afghanistan withdrawal as it pertained to Trump’s disastrous foreign policy and his ass kissing of the Taliban. The end result is Trump pulled off another PR stunt and a giant free campaign ad.
Anyone who believes this BS take should be ashamed.
The "stunt" was Biden showing up at Dover for his photo op when the 13 service members he murdered were brought home. He had no interest in being there so he looked at his watch the whole time.
Biden and Harris have both been completely MIA on these families and their fallen loved ones.
The disastrous Afghan withdrawal is 100% on Biden. It was a conditional withdrawal and Biden completely ignored the conditions and went about the withdrawal in the most incompetent manner possible.
The last thing you leftist idiots want is for you cult to be "educated" about the facts.
remember to trust armchair general winnie over Trump's national security advisor. Always.
As winnie will tell you, people in the military are awful and should be disregarded.
Retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, who served as national security adviser under former President Donald Trump, said Monday his onetime boss bears some responsibility for the US’ chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. McMaster told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that the former president had made a decision in 2017 to maintain a US presence in Afghanistan, but that Trump then changed his mind. The Trump administration ultimately entered into an agreement with the Taliban requiring US troops to withdraw from the country by May 2021. President Joe Biden, after he took office, pushed that withdrawal date back to August.
Asked by Cooper if Trump bears some responsibility for the heavily criticized withdrawal during the Biden administration, McMaster responded, “Oh, yes.”
Question for the Dems here ... don't you want to know Kamala's policy position and know why they are different from 4 years ago? Will you vote for her merely because she is a Democrat? She refuses all interviews, debates and everything else. Wouldn't you like to know her positions on the major issues before voting for her? If she is as radically left as many of conservatives think, does that bother you at all?
I assume harris will run a clean center left reasonable gummint, like clinton, obama and biden. That's fine with me. Campaign promises are silly really. Results are very good.
I also assume trump will run a corrupt, chaotic, terrible, admin like Reagan, Bush2 and he himself did. I also assume that trump will, again, loudly break his oath of office like he did last time.
Easy choice, don't you think?
This post was edited 46 seconds after it was posted.
Anyone who believes this BS take should be ashamed.
The "stunt" was Biden showing up at Dover for his photo op when the 13 service members he murdered were brought home. He had no interest in being there so he looked at his watch the whole time.
Biden and Harris have both been completely MIA on these families and their fallen loved ones.
The disastrous Afghan withdrawal is 100% on Biden. It was a conditional withdrawal and Biden completely ignored the conditions and went about the withdrawal in the most incompetent manner possible.
The last thing you leftist idiots want is for you cult to be "educated" about the facts.
remember to trust armchair general winnie over Trump's national security advisor. Always.
As winnie will tell you, people in the military are awful and should be disregarded.
Retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, who served as national security adviser under former President Donald Trump, said Monday his onetime boss bears some responsibility for the US’ chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. McMaster told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that the former president had made a decision in 2017 to maintain a US presence in Afghanistan, but that Trump then changed his mind. The Trump administration ultimately entered into an agreement with the Taliban requiring US troops to withdraw from the country by May 2021. President Joe Biden, after he took office, pushed that withdrawal date back to August.
Asked by Cooper if Trump bears some responsibility for the heavily criticized withdrawal during the Biden administration, McMaster responded, “Oh, yes.”
Some.
The lion's share and 100% of the responsibility for completely incompetent manner the withdrawal was carried out in fall squarely on Biden and Harris.
Question for the Dems here ... don't you want to know Kamala's policy position and know why they are different from 4 years ago? Will you vote for her merely because she is a Democrat? She refuses all interviews, debates and everything else. Wouldn't you like to know her positions on the major issues before voting for her? If she is as radically left as many of conservatives think, does that bother you at all?
I assume harris will run a clean center left reasonable gummint, like clinton, obama and biden. That's fine with me. Campaign promises are silly really. Results are very good.
I also assume trump will run a corrupt, chaotic, terrible, admin like Reagan, Bush2 and he himself did. I also assume that trump will, again, loudly break his oath of office like he did last time.
Easy choice, don't you think?
Agip - what is her position on immigration and price controls?
Almost 500 pages of discourse and the same pathetic handful of posters are still going in circles in the same pathetic arguments. Can you guys just agree to disagree or what? Complete waste of time in here.