Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Market Moves,

Check back with me at year end and we will compare notes.

Igy

No need to wait a year. The market is closed for the day. The jury is in.

How about a week from now?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

How about a week from now?

I'm not sure if your ignorant or obstinate. The quote I posted -- the one you took exception to -- clearly refers to Monday (aka Today). The numbers are in. No need to wait another nanosecond.

Of course you are correct, we have received the "green light." Sorry for my ignorance.

Igy

Igy, you crack me up. Keep on keeping on.

POTO,

Someone needs to counter the blathering of postings that amount to wives tales. It's a burden that must be carried for the greater good.

Igy

Not sure what old wive's tale you mean. I thought you were yanking his chain, but now I think you misread his original post. Either way it's funny.

POTO,

No misreading from my view since "hope" is quite a bit different than "fact." The green light has been given to hope while fact as I have more than adequately documented is that the fundamentals are declining. Choose your weapon hope or fact.

Igy

I hope your facts don't burn you. The fact is many have been given hope by the increase in oil and other commodities.

POTO,

Even if energy and commodities are off the low the damage has been done. Of course if you would have a rebound to $70 oil for example, the hope for rebound would save some of the mid-tier companies, but the lower tiered companies are doomed. But that is not likely, at the very least it is lower for longer, and the debt will not be paid and bankruptcies will rise.

If one doesn't have conviction, what is your view worth? I am an optimist by nature, it comes with being a teacher and coach for nineteen years. If I am wrong, that is OK, because the view was based on facts not charts and buy side hokum. If I am wrong over the short run it will be driven by investors' penchant for the fool hearty.

Here is another piece based on fact rather than conjecture:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-22/singapore-lawyers-warn-of-1998-like-pain-as-debt-defaults-spread

Igy

Having a view is fine. But having an open mind is also important. Rejecting opposing viewpoints as "hokum" without giving them due diligence is the type of stubbornness that can come back to bite you. Beware, my friend.

POTO,

Thanks for the advice, well taken, and appreciated. We are all creatures of our experience and that background gives rise to my caution. The opinions I irreverently describe as hokum I have heard before in the vein of "this time is different," so you will have to excuse me if I sound flip. Hopefully my history both in the finance and in life will be a good compass. If the market bounces to new highs I will be wrong over the short term. I assume that the remainder of the month may be critical to the Bull or Bear view.

Igy

You will eventually be right. The question is when. I know you believe sooner rather than later. Time will tell.

North American stocks were lower on Tuesday as prices of crude oil and other commodities fell, pointing to an downtick in investors’ risk appetite following a rise in global markets.

“You’ve seen oil fall today, which people are viewing very much as a kind of a red flag in the short-term to take risk off again to a certain degree,” said Igy.

Igy,

Be careful to make assumptions from the hokum of a sell side (snake oil salesman) analyst. It has nothing to do with any kind of "red flag" to investors. Bunch of baloney.

A. F.

"Economic data, including readings on consumer confidence and home prices, were mostly positive.

Investors are looking ahead to important readings on inflation, durable-goods orders and a second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, expected later this week.

After a rocky start to the year, U.S. data has improved over the past two weeks. Stronger-than-expecting readings on retails-sales growth and consumer-price inflation bolstered the case for at least one Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this year, analysts said.

"Considering that there's probably a fair number of investors who are anticipating a recession, I believe that good news will be good news for stocks, considering where investor sentiment is currently situated," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank."

A.F.'

Good one....touché....as you hipsters say LOL....

Igy

"Considering that there's probably a fair number of investment firms who are not anticipating a recession, I believe that bad news will be bad news for stocks, considering where investor sentiment is currently overly optimistic," said Igy."

A Friend wrote:

Igy,

Be careful to make assumptions from the hokum of a sell side (snake oil salesman) analyst. It has nothing to do with any kind of "red flag" to investors. Bunch of baloney.

A. F.

lol