So yesterday I caught a bit of Tiny's news conference and he was bragging about our low death rate. He even got the statistic sort of right when he said it was death rate per population. He said:
On a per capita basis, our mortality rate is far lower than other nations of Western Europe, with the lone exception of possibly Germany.
Of course, we know this is a statistic he won't be able to brag about for very long if our infection rate is high. The reason for our lower death rate at the moment is because our outbreaks started later than in most major countries.
So I took a quick stab to try to see if I could tell what will happen. Here are the major nations with a worse death rate than ours (deaths/1M population):
Ireland
Sweden
Switzerland
Netherlands
UK
France
Italy
Spain
Belgium
Notice that they are all in Europe where things started getting bad a few weeks before the US.
Now lets look at the major nations with a worse infection rate than ours (infections/1M population):
France
Italy
Ireland
Switzerland
Belgium
Spain
The UK, Netherlands, and Sweden are now gone from the list. Our death rate will at least surpass those three because more infections means more deaths.
Will our infection rate catch up with those six that are left? If it does, our death rate will follow. It looks like our death rate will end up worse than any major nation except maybe Spain, Belgium, and Switzerland.
Should we feel good about the American response when we are worse than all but a handful of countries?