Clovis was Branham's first speed rated race of the year, and I had forgotten to enter their data. With that race, they score 796, but still well behind Menlo and Bellarmine in my ratings. I am hoping TullyRunners will speed rate Crystal Springs, so I can get some more data on De La Salle, an NC team that is hard to rate at this point.
Beckman 221.2 Jesuit 262.7 ML King 313.5 Glendora 363 Menlo 376.5 Great Oak 414.8 Matilda Torres 441.2 JSerra 450.3 Buchanan 460.9 Crescenta Valley 466 Ayala 484.5 Saugus 495.8 Clovis North 544.4 Oaks Christian 557.2 Mira Costa 564.6 Bellarmine 589.4 Mountain View 610.7 Hart 670.8 Clovis East 685.4 Trabuco Hills 686.5 El Toro 695.8 Tesoro 709.9 San Clemente 719.9 Oak Park 766.2 Poly (Riverside) 773.1 Branham 796.9 Davis 817.6 Dos Pueblos 833.8 Millikan 841.2 Redondo Union 861.2 Woodbridge 901.8 Foothill Technology 925.1 West Ranch 935.8 De La Salle 953.1 College Park 995.9
based off your data what are your thoughts on this: do you think it's possible for beckman and jesuit ca can be as good as Dana Hills(10th) and San Clemente(8th) last year?
There are a few things to consider:
1) I did the same rankings (only current year SRs), using the same scale, at this point last year. Clovis was much faster this year, so Beckman and Jesuit are a better duo. But 3-7 last year was actually better. And as I mentioned earlier in the year, #8 and beyond are better this year, and remain so.
2023 2024
Dana Hills 261.2 Beckman 221.2 San Clemente 300.1 Jesuit 262.7 Great Oak 306.4 ML King 313.5 Ventura 342.7 Glendora 363 Oakdale 389 Menlo 376.5 Trabuco Hills 395.8 Great Oak 414.8 Beckman 410.2 Matilda Torres 441.2
2) I did the same ratings after CIF Sectionals and before the state meet, and San Clemente and Dana Hills were already much improved. And an 8th team, Mira Costa had entered into the mix.
1 San Clemente 213.8 2 Dana Hills 237.7 3 Great Oak 289.1 4 Ventura 315.6 5 Trabuco Hills 371.1 6 Oakdale 378.4 7 Beckman 396.5 8 Mira Costa 405.2
And then state meet team times were AMAZING (I didn't rerun my numbers because those were designed to predict the state meet, so no point in running them after).
Dana Hills 15:15.7 San Clemente 15:17.6 Oakdale 15:28.6 GO 15:31
3) So the next question is, can Beckman and Jesuit be as good as DH and SC last year at this year's state meet? I would have to think "No". I think Beckman can run a little faster, but not 9 seconds per man faster. Maybe 3sec per. And Jesuit running 12 seconds per man faster? No. I do think MLK has a chance to be in 2023 Oakdale/Great Oak territory, but that won't get them an at large NXN bid. The competition for those looks much tougher this year.
4) Can Beckman/Jesuit do as well at NXN as DH and SC? Well, that NXN mud run was kind of silly to me, and not really an accurate representation of strength of teams. Just a huge advantage to those teams familiar with those conditions. I think DH and SC should have been #5 and #6, if not better. So could Beckman/Jesuit for #8/#10? Although I am not following the national teams that closely this year, I know there a lot of really, really strong teams, so 8/10 would be a good day. My guess is an average day will be #11/#12.
5) Beckman's Clovis team time of 15:24/per was not only great, but having a 6th man at 15:42 was incredible, and gives hope they should be able to hold up at NXN. Last year at the state meet, both DH and SC's 6th man was 15:58, so you could some vulnerability, and that came into play. Whereas 2021 Newbury Park had a 6th man at 15:15, and they weren't going to lose to anybody (it also helps when your top 3 is also the top 3 in the entire nation).
Lastly, I do hope I am wrong, and would be happy to see a repeat of #8/#10, and I would consider that be in the realm of possibility.
based off your data what are your thoughts on this: do you think it's possible for beckman and jesuit ca can be as good as Dana Hills(10th) and San Clemente(8th) last year?
Lastly, I do hope I am wrong, and would be happy to see a repeat of #8/#10, and I would consider that be in the realm of possibility.
I pray for a 8th and 10th finish at nxn this year. nxn gotten really competitive mostly because of the southwest region sending 4 teams each year that will finish in the top 10. Then there are all the powerhouse programs like Southlake Carroll, Austin Vandegrift, CDA, Crater, CBA etc.
Rich ran into the same problem I mentioned in my ratings, since Clovis was so much faster than any other race this year, how do you rate the teams that weren't there, like Mira Costa and Redondo? Since my ratings are based purely on speed ratings, those teams just take a big fall. He might have been swayed by, "Well, Mira Costa beat these teams in their last head-to-head matchup". Still, I would bet a lot of money Mira Costa would not have beaten MLK at Clovis. MLK had their top 5 healthy at Clovis, and that lineup is #3 in the entire state, IMO.
My Individual data set for Clovis. I will give team data set later on.
Top 10 Boy Individual California Performances at Clovis this year. #1 - Griffin Kushan - 14:43 - last year(15:30 - Clovis, 15:20 state) #2 - Broen Holman - 14:46 - last year(14:46 - Clovis, 14:46 state) #3 - Landon Pretre - 14:51 - last year(14:52) #4 - Aydon Stefanopoulos - 14:52 - last year(14:58 state) #5 - Tyler Daillak - 14:53 - last year(15:43 - Clovis, 15:32 state) #6 - Dylan Flores - 14:59 - last year(15:21 state) #7 - Maximo Zavaletta - 14:59 - last year(15:13 Clovis, 15:07 state) #8 - Miles Cook - 15:00 - last year(15:27 state) #9 - JR Lesher 15:01 - last year(15:42 state) #10 - Mason Nguyễn - 15:05 - lást year(15:32 Clovis, 15:49 state)
Boy Returners that broke 15:40 at Woodward Park, and have the opportunity to return next year to improve on their time. 11 - Maximo Zavaleta - 14:59 11 - Mason Nguyễn - 15:05 11 - Alijah Murillo - 15:12 11 - Olly O’Connor - 15:14 11 - Kyle Jackary - 15:16 11 - Benjamin Fernadez - 15:17 11 - Conor Lott - 15:17 11 - Hunter Hannah - 15:17 11 - Oliver Hunter - 15:19 10 - Ryan Barris - 15:21 11 - Brad Quezada - 15:24 10 - Matthew Ogilvie - 15:25 11 - Ryan Fitzpatrick - 15:26 10 - Jack McDonald - 15:27 11 - Cullen Gully - 15:28 10 - Adrian Cantu - 15:30 11 - Kiefer Willcox - 15:30 10 - Yohan Anderson - 15:32 9 - Bryson Caganap - 15:33 11 - Henry Hauser - 15:33 11 - Evan Nahuatl - 15:33 9 - Jack Paz - 15:33 11 - Drake Hoferer - 15:34 11 - Brian Arndt - 15:36 11- Caleb Burton - 15:38 11- Christian Weber - 15:38 11 - Chase Manning - 15:39
Top 10 Girl Individual California Performances at Clovis this year 1. Sadie Engelhardt - 16:24(course record). (Last year -16:39/16:40) 2. Rylee Blade - 16:31(1 second away cr) (last year - 16:45/16:48) 3. Summer Wilson - 17:08 (last year - 17:31) 4. Hannah Thomsen - 17:10 (last year - 17:23/17:10) 5. Maya De Brouwer - 17:20 (last year - 17:38/17:37) 6. Braelyn Combe - 17:23 (last year - 17:49/17:35) 7. Abigail Errington - 17:24 (last year - 17:44) 8. Isabella Ramirez - 17:25 (last year - 19:02/18:42) 9. Mackenzie Forrest - 17:31 (last year - 19:04/19:01) 10. Amber Dazey - 17:38 (last year - 19:27/18:49)
Girl Returners that broke 18:00 at Woodward Park and have an opportunity to return next year to improve on their time. 11 - Summer Wilson - 17:08 11 - Braelyn Combe - 17:23 11 - Isabella Ramirez - 17:25 11 - Mackenzie Forrest - 17:31 11 - Amber Dazey - 17:38 10 - Molly Sungred - 17:44 11 - Isla Bulmer - 17:48 11 - Kynzlee Buckley - 17:50 11 - Amaya Bharadwaj - 17:51 9 - Gaby Gutierrez - 17:51 9 - Brooklyn Buckley - 17:52 10 - Gweneth Williams - 17:53
Add Chiara Dailey. She didn't run this year out of caution, but she'll be the favorite for basically everything with Sadie and Rylee in college. I hope Jaelyn Williams is ok.
Also, what’s going to happen to Noonan? I don’t doubt he will return this season, but will he be able to come back strong this season? Or will guys like Miles Cook and Zion Ortiz cook him in the State meet?
Boy Returners that broke 15:40 at Woodward Park, and have the opportunity to return next year to improve on their time. 11 - Maximo Zavaleta - 14:59 11 - Mason Nguyễn - 15:05 11 - Alijah Murillo - 15:12 11 - Olly O’Connor - 15:14 11 - Kyle Jackary - 15:16 11 - Benjamin Fernadez - 15:17 11 - Conor Lott - 15:17 11 - Hunter Hannah - 15:17 11 - Oliver Hunter - 15:19 10 - Ryan Barris - 15:21 11 - Brad Quezada - 15:24 10 - Matthew Ogilvie - 15:25 11 - Ryan Fitzpatrick - 15:26 10 - Jack McDonald - 15:27 11 - Cullen Gully - 15:28 10 - Adrian Cantu - 15:30 11 - Kiefer Willcox - 15:30 10 - Yohan Anderson - 15:32 9 - Bryson Caganap - 15:33 11 - Henry Hauser - 15:33 11 - Evan Nahuatl - 15:33 9 - Jack Paz - 15:33 11 - Drake Hoferer - 15:34 11 - Brian Arndt - 15:36 11- Caleb Burton - 15:38 11- Christian Weber - 15:38 11 - Chase Manning - 15:39
Like someone mentioned, Isaac Abbott is missing from this list, but when you add him in there, that makes 4 Jesuit guys in this list. Wouldn’t be surprised if they are top 5 or podium at NXN next year
That does move De La Salle up in my ratings, into the range these teams:
Bellarmine 589.4 Mountain View 610.7 Hart 670.8 Clovis East 685.4 Trabuco Hills 686.5 El Toro 695.8 Tesoro 709.9 San Clemente 719.9 *De La Salle 734.8 Oak Park 766.2 Poly (Riverside) 773.1 Branham 796.9 Davis 817.6
I think that Beckman and Jesuit are top 15 in the nation. They are better than all Heartland and New York teams for sure.
The fact that the #2 junior at Clovis is from Beckman truly shows that they have a front runner. They have solid depth and don’t really have a weakness
Boys 2023 California State Meet (final California merge rankings) #1 San Clemente -S-1 15:17 average (15:30 Clovis). #2 Dana Hills -S-3 15:15 average. (15:46 Clovis) #3 Great Oak -S-1 15:31 average. (15:39 Clovis) #4 Oakdale -SJ-3 15:28 average. (15:40 Clovis) #5 Trabuco Hills -S-1 15:34 average. (NA) #6 Palisades Charter -LA-1 15:39 average (NA) #7 Santa Barbara -S-2 15:40 average (16:02 Clovis) #8 Mira Costa -S-1 15:40 average (15:49 Clovis) #9 Crescenta Valley -S-1 15:42 average (16:05 Clovis) #10 Ventura -S-2 15:47 average (15:41 Clovis) #11 Clovis East -C-1 15:47 average (16:39 Clovis) #12 Newbury Park -S-2 15:49 average (16:07 Clovis) #13 Arnold O. Beckman -S-1 15:51 average (15:54 Clovis) #14 Jesuit -SJ-2 15:51 average (16:17 Clovis) #15 St. Francis -S-4 15:51 average (16:02 Clovis)
Top 15 at Clovis 2024 - (No Redondo Union or Mira Costa) 1 Arnold O. Beckman 15:24. - #26 at Woodbridge team time 2 Jesuit 15:29 - NA at Woodbridge team time 3 Crater 15:20 - #3 at Woodbridge team time 4 ML King 15:34 - #15 at Woodbridge team time 5 Glendora 15:38 - #14 at Woodbridge team time 6 Crescenta Valley 15:46 - #29 at Woodbridge team time 7 Buchanan 15:45 - #28 at Woodbridge team time 8 Ayala 15:46 - #33 at Woodbridge team time 9 Great Oak 15:47 - #17 at Woodbridge team time 10 Matilda Torres 15:47 - #13 at Woodbridge team time 11 Saugus 15:48 - #45 at Woodbridge team time 12 JSerra Catholic 15:50 (1:19:08 ) #23 at Woodbridge team time 13 Clovis North 15:50 (1:19:10) - NA at Woodbridge 14 Bellarmine College Prep 15:58 - NA at Woodbridge 15 Menlo - 15:58 - #9 at Woodbridge team time 16 Mountain View - 15:59 - #19 at Woodbridge team time 17 San Clemente - 16:01 - #41 at Woodbridge team time 18 Trabuco Hills - 15:55 - #36 at Woodbridge team time
Girls 2023 state meet #1 JSerra Catholic -S-4 17:56 average (18:06 Clovis) #2 Santiago Corona -S-1 17:47 average (18:16 Clovis) #3 Buchanan -C-1 18:03 average (18:25 Clovis) #4 Trabuco Hills -S-1 18:01 average (NA) #5 Ventura -S-2 18:08 average. (18:09 Clovis) #6 Cathedral Catholic -SD-3 18:29 average (NA) #7 Whitney -SJ-2 18:36 average (NA) #8 Campolindo -NC-3 18:40 average (NA) #9 St. Francis -CC-2 18:46 average (18:59 Clovis) #10 Claremont -S-2 18:39 average (19:31 Clovis) #11 Clovis North -C-1 18:54 average (19:19 Clovis) #12 Del Norte -SD-1 18:51 average (NA Clovis) #13 Murrieta Valley -S-2 18:43 average (19:07 Clovis) #14 Saugus -S-1 19:00 average (NA) #15 Granite Bay -SJ-2 19:04 average (19:19 Clovis)
Girls top 15 in 2024 Clovis - 1 Buchanan - 17:54 - #4 W team time 2 Jserra - 18:08 #5 W team time 3 Santiago Corona - 17:54 #1 W team time 4 - Ventura - 18:07 - #3 W team time 5 - St. Francis cc - 18:40 - NA W 6 - Del Norte sd - 18:40 - NA W 7 - El Toro - 18:41 - #9 W team time 8 - Monte Vista - 18:49 - #21 W team time 9 - Oak Ridge - 18:48 - NA W 10 - Tesoro - 18:44 - #10 W team time 11 - Cresenta Valley - 18:59 - #18 W team time 12 - Clovis North - 19:01 - NA W 13 - Murrieta Valley - 19:04 - #19 W team time 14 - Los Altos - 19:06 - NA 15 - Great Oak - 19:04 - #23 W team time
Woodbridge team time is not the same as Woodbridge team scores. and placements. Team time is decided by the combined times of all runners not a merged result. Clovis 2023 was hotter than Clovis 2024. Clovis 2023 was 71 degrees Clovis 2024 was 63 degrees that felt like 66.
Clovis 2023 was hotter than Clovis 2024. Clovis 2023 was 71 degrees Clovis 2024 was 63 degrees that felt like 66.
I'd bet most runners Saturday morning would say that it felt like 86. I wasn't running, but it definitely didn't feel like 63 at the Championship races.
