NXN 2024 - The Way Too Early Preview - BOYS

Powell and Tostenson 195 speed rating. 3 more in the 190s

Herriman had 5 guys in the 180s

Who are the frontrunners for the individual title right now?

( Add to this list or let me know if they're not doing NXN / these are not in any order)

Mechura
Barret
Powell
Tostenson
Noonan
Cervi-Skinner
Putz
Mantecon
Hansen
Alverson
Steorts
Latham

it's always been 7th - 4th at woodbridge that has been strangely and consistantly winning the nxn titles these past few years. It usually comes back to bite them at the end of the season, as people use it as an argument as to why that runner doesn't deserve gatorade player of the year. Colin Salhman got 4th too but nobody seem to care about that when it come gatorade awards his year.

St Vrain speed ratings

Bridgeland TX

I expect Caden Lenoard to be the next national champion then. he was 4th. that’s a good spot to be historically

Desert Twilight posted race assignments. Weather isn't ideal. It's supposed to be 112 on Friday and will still be in the mid 90s during the sweepstakes races, so times may be slower, but it will good to see how the teams compete against one another. It looks like Coronado, Hamilton, Niwot, Thompson Valley, Mountain View and Valor will all be there.

Entries for Bob Firman are posted too

athletic.net

Track & Field, Cross Country Results, Statistics

Meet results and team scores.

Link:www.athletic.net/CrossCountry/meet/235...

My compete analysis of the teams that competed this year at the woodbridge invitational.

Southwest
Herriman - #1
Hamiliton - #4
Rock Canyon - #6
Shadow Ridge - #10
Orem - #16
Desert Hills - #21

Northwest
Crater - #3
Coeur D’ALene - #5
Mercer Island. - #7
If Bozeman was to be included in the merge, they would have been - #14 according to tully

South
Southlake Carroll #2
Conroe the Woodlands #13
Piedmont #34

Southeast
Greer Middle College #26
California
Mira Costa #8
Matilda Torres #9
Glendora #11
Great Oak #12
Clovis East #14
Martin Luthern King #15
Jserra #17 (returned 4:17 average for top 5)
Hart #18
Cresenta Valley #19
Woodbridge #20
Poly Riverside #22
Oak Park #23
Buchanan #24
Beckman #25
Ayala #27 (Currently #1 in the 3200 hoka challenge)
Traduce Hills #28
Millikan #29
Tesoro #30
Dana Hills #31
Newbury Park #32
Palisades Charter #33 (What was supposed to the next “crazy” California team)
Foothill Technology #35
El Dorado #36

What this says is that California teams are completely outmatched by northwest and southwest and to some extent south. Northwest and southwest are extremely underrated and are the by far the most competitive regions in the nation.

The point total for the top 12 teams at Woodbridge.
1 Herriman 58
2 Southlake Carroll 173
3 Crater 187
4 Hamilton (AZ) 226
5 Coeur D'Alene 258
6 Rock Canyon 275
7 Mercer Island 305
8 Mira Costa 324
9 Matilda Torres 382
10 Shadow Ridge (NV) 400
11 Glendora 402
12 Great Oak 418

SOUTHWEST (Utah) summary:
Results from
Herriman (#1), Orem(#16), and Desert Hills(#21), were at Timpanogos Invitational a month ago (the largest meet in Utah).
Results at Timpangos show -
Herriman - 32 (#1)
American Fork - 77
Viewmont - 142
Mountain View - 156
Mapple Mountain - 227
Orem - 229 (#16)
Desert Hills - 230 (#21)
This means that Mountain View, Viewmont and American Fork are nationally relevant. American Fork is arguably the 3rd fastest team in the nation only behind Herriman and Niwot.
Results from Border Wars -
Taylorsville - 77
Riverton - 108
Orem - 153
Because Orem finished 16th, Riverton and especially Taylorsville are nationally relevant. With Taylorsville UT, being a serious contender for a 4th spot at NXR Southwest.
To Summarize, the top 3 Utah teams are Herriman, American Fork, Taylorville and they are 100% faster than all the California. It is likely that Viewmont, Mountain View and Riverton are either competitive or better than the top California teams.

SOUTHWEST (Colorado) summary:
Rock Canyon placed 6th.
At Liberty Bell they were first. Valor Christian was close behind. 126-144. This tells me that Valor Christian CO would have most likely been able to place in the top 10.
Coronado Beat Rock Canyon 74-102. This tells us that Coronado could have been top 5 team at Woodbridge.

NORTHWEST (Idaho) summary:
CDA places 5th.
Rocky Mountain is the next best Idaho team. It is likely that Rocky Mountain team would be competitive with the top California team that placed 8-9th. Rocky Mountain is definitely a contender for an at large if they get 4th at nxr northwest this year.
Northwest (Montana) Summary:
Bozeman raced in the rated and got 2nd to Mountain View California. Bozeman and Mountain View would have been #13 and #14 in the sweepstakes.
Bozeman beat Helena (MT) last week. They went 73-80 to Helena at the Bozeman Invitational. Helena placed 11th at nxr northwest last year, and returned everyone this year. 

However, it appears that Rocky Mountain from Idaho is more competitive, considering CDA placed 5th, than Helena or Bozeman.

Northwest (Washington) Summary:
Mercer Island Washington placed 7th in the Sweepstakes Race. The Washington team beat every California team in that race. It was clear that this was going to be the best team in Washington based on their performance in the early season at Conference Class Race/Jamboree, where they beat all the other Washington teams badly without their #4 whom raced at Bellarmine Invitational and raced close to Vincent Recupero.
The Washington teams that Mercer Island beat badly later went on to beat Jesuit OR at the mook invitational. Sehome WA, Issaquah WA, Jesuit OR go 110-119-123 at Mook Invitational.
They are likely to be the 3rd team at nxr northwest. But nothing is given, and these are just early season results, BUT they do show just how strong the Northwest.

Northwest (Oregon) Summary:
People were expecting crater to be one of the nations best teams. They were correct. Crater was 3rd. Crater hasn’t raced any other competitive teams outside of the teams at Woodbridge.

South Summary:

Southlake Carroll went 47 points to Northwest Nelson 86 points, Lucas Lovejoy 125 points, Bentonville 143 points.
More recently and more importantly, Austin Vandegrift went 49 points to the Woodlands 106, and Lucas Lovejoy 152 then Northwest Nelson 163. This was without their #1, Hudson Haley at Lovvejoy XC fall Festival.
It is unsure exactly where exactly Austin Vandegrift could place in the sweepstakes but mostly somewhere within the top 5. I was watching the team ever since their race last year in the rated race. I was speculating that Austin Vandegrift would be better than all the northwest, California and midwest teams. However, I highly underestimated the northwest region. But I am very sure they are better than all the California/midwest teams.
The conroe woodlands was 13th, lower than expect, but carroll on the other hand was 2nd.

Southeast Summary:
Greer Middle College was 14th at NXR Southeast last year, and returned everyone (most being sophomores at the time). It was expected that they would be a top 5 southeast team coming into this season. However, some of their earlier races seemed shaky so we will see how things turn out later on. They placed #26 at Woodbridge Sweepstakes (would be lower .

Upcoming Races and which teams that raced at Woodbridge will be racing them:

Bob Firman Invitational - 9/28/2024
Herriman #1
Great Oak #12
J Serra #22
Valor Christian (remember this is the team that placed close 2nd to Rock Canyon at Liberty Bell)
Rocky Mountain (second best team in Idaho behind CDA)

Desert Twilight - 9/28/2024
Niwot (likely the only team that can compete with Harriman)
Hamiliton #4
Dana Hills #28
Traduce Hills #31
Coronado (beats rock canyon earlier in the season)
Valor Christian (came 2nd to rock canyon at Liberty Bell)
Mountain View (beat orem and desert hills at timpanagos)

Lastly, I will go over how fast teams were able to run on a 3 mile road/light grass course with some bumps and turns.

Herriman averaged 14:02 for a full 3 mile course. That would be an average of 14:31 for a full 5k course. This would be 2nd fastest 5k/3mile average ever run only behind Newbury Park's average of 14:14 at Runninglane in 2021. They beat the original 2nd 5k time by Cheyenne Mountain, whom went 14:49 in 2021 at Runninglane.

Southlake Carroll averages 14:20 for a full 3 mile course. That would average 14:49 for a full 5k course. This would be a tie with Cheyenne Mountain, as the 3rd fastest 5k/3 mile preformance ever run.

Crater average 14:14 for a full 3 mile course. That would average 14:43 for a full 5k course. Because of their top 2, it lowers their average by a lot.

Hamiliton averages 14:29 3 mile, 14:58 5k.

Coeur De Lene average 14:23 3 mile, 14:52 5k

Rock Canyon averages 14:35 3 mile, 15:04 5k

Mercer Island WA averages 14:30 3 mile (with a big help from powell), 14:59 5k

sorry I had a typo i meant to say california was completed outmatched by northwest and southwest and to the same extent south.

What’s even more amazing about Coronado is that they only have 13 boys on the team. They have a transfer who ran 3 second faster than their #4 runner last meet. He won’t be eligible until NXR though

co.milesplit.com

Coronado High School Results at Coronado Cougar Classic

MileSplits official Coronado High School results for the 2024 Coronado Cougar Classic, hosted by Coronado High School in Colorado Springs CO.

Link:co.milesplit.com/meets/592780-coronado...

Gotta include Owen Powell and Josiah Tostenson in there

They went 1-2 at Woodbridge.

They both beat Caden Leonard and so did Max Cervi Skinner

Well who will you guys vote for

Can’t leave out Tayvon Kitchen either

If you go back 10 years. It was: Utah, California, California (runninglane), California, California, Utah, Utah, Utah, Washington, Washington.

3 states have been exclusively winning the nxn individual title in the past 10 years.

Powell, Noonan, Evans

vs

Tostenson, Putz, Mechura, Latham, Kitchen, Cervi-Skinner, Leonard

which group do you take?

Bob Firman temps have a high of 94. Elite races around noon, so high 80's is to be expected.

It's been 60's and 70's here in Idaho, so the locals and especially those from Oregon/Washington will have a tough adjustment to make.

Herriman should win with under 50 points.

Valor Christian and Rocky Mountain are probably the next best two teams.

Boise and Mountain View are the local teams to watch aside from Rocky Mountain, they will be trying to beat some of the random southwest teams that nobody knows about, yet are still crazy good.

Bozeman Montana and Star Valley have had decent success in the last few years, particularly on this course. On paper they are the #4-6 teams, but a good performance could upset

A couple Cali teams are traveling up, but not like last year with Dana Hill and Trabuco Hills. None of the Cali teams should place top 5, but we'll see if they can upset.