California HS XC 2023 CIF

Yeah... I ran there personally and by the D4 race that we were in, a 2nd bout of rain started and the course got several tens of seconds slower at least. In the final mile we had to DRASTICALLY slow to avoid slipping around any small turn and up the hill, and it was still slick. D2 had a pretty nice gooey but sticky mud to run on and it didn't really impact their ability to corner (I think Trey just decided to take it easier cause conditions were bad but he could have gone faster if he wanted, making the race conditions seem closer, but notice the depth of D2 race versus D4 race, winning times were similar but then suddenly from 2nd person on it's all like in the 16 minute range... I know personally that there are several low-15 talents in D4 that threw in solid efforts only to run pretty much 16 flat.) We had slick mud that flew and caused slippage every few steps. It was ROUGH.

A lot of people were adversely impacted and I managed to upset a few people projected to easily make states and snag one of the last individual spots. Just a whole mess honestly.

I'm curious if people think 2019 Jesuit would get an at large this year. I'm just not seeing this weakness in California that everybody is seeing and I think 3-5 of these teams will have better merges than 2019 Jesuit would if you included their times in the 2023 merge.

If 3-5 teams are better, would that be enough for a California at large? I'm using 2019 Jesuit as a yardstick because they seem to be considered the best team that's gotten snubbed.

Oh wow, Logan Farzan didn't advance to State.

I don't think they would have that many teams better than them this year. 15:33 on the state course would have had them in 2nd last year behind NP and ahead of the other 3 CA NXN teams.

I think they would still slot into a 3rd place at worst this year, so still the best or 2nd best to get snubbed so far.

Thanks for the response. I'm definitely not comparing apples to apples, but I'm noticing that the team in their own section appears to be outperforming them so far this year and is only ranked 4th. I'm just wondering if they outperform them again at state and finish 4th, if the 3rd place team wouldn't then deserve an at large bid?

I'm just having a lot of trouble reconciling why California was worthy of 2 at larges last year, but not even one this year since they seem faster after NP.

>>I'm just having a lot of trouble reconciling why California was worthy of 2 at larges last year, but not even one this year since they seem faster after NP.<<

Because the other teams competing for those at large bids are much better this year. Comparing California teams to past years isn't what matters. They aren't competing with them for the last spot.

How I think it will look in the merge

Girls
1. JSerra Catholic
2. Buchanan
3. Santiago Corona
4. Ventura
5. Trabuco Hills

Boys
1. Dana Hills
2. San Clemente
3. Great Oak
4. Oakdale
5. Trabuco Hills
D2 is not as strong as D1&D3 on the team side, so Ventura will need to do more than just win their division to sneak into the top 5 in the merge

Oakland section on something different, if i was from oakland i would be so fast it wouldn't even be funny, like every day training running from the hobos get that double threshold going to and fro school

Oakland section is always the worst

Try a sprint with the Oakland Section and see how bad you get beat.

Doesn’t seem like Westin Brown will be back this year.
But next year, with all those top teams graduating a lot of people, Great Oak will likely be back to #1 in California.
They return 3 guys from varsity (Gump and 2 Jacks - Browns and Paradise), and W Brown will take Rodriguez’s #1 spot.
After that, they will need a 5th runner but there are some sophomores looking to take on that role next year.

Jacob Brown not Jack Brown

Here are the top speed ratings per division for the boys. There is an outside shot that every division winner could break 15, which would be amazing. The first number on the left is where the speed rating ranks nationally.

D1

111 Brett Ephraim 12 San Clemente (SS) Mt. SAC Invite CA 10/21/2023 188.33 188
116 Maximo Zavaleta 10 ML King (SS) Mt. SAC Invite CA 10/21/2023 188.00 188
145 Adrian Welton 12 Westview (SD) CIF San Diego Sec CA 11/11/2023 186.87 187
225 Carter Spradling 12 Clovis East (CS) Woodbridge Classic CA 9/16/2023 184.40 184
Parra seems to have his mojo back, and will probably run his typical race and push the pace. Reyes and Welton are somewhat unknowns, in that they haven't run against the SS boys much.
Spradling was my pre-season guess, and he seems to be rounding into form, so he has an outside shot.
D2
1 Anthony Fast Horse 12 Ventura (SS) Clovis Invitational CA 10/7/2023 198.17 198
77 Trey Caldwell 11 De La Salle (NC) Crystal Springs Inv CA 10/7/2023 189.40 189
154 Andreas Dybdahl 12 Santa Barbara (SS) CIF Southern Section CA 11/18/2023 186.50 187
192 Grant Morgenfeld 12 Palo Alto (CC) CIF Central Coast CA 11/11/2023 185.27 185
195 Jack Rattary 11 College Park (NC) CIF North Coast Sec CA 11/18/2023 185.17 185
Fast Horse is the heavy favorite, but not by as much as the speed ratings would imply. From what I have seen, Caldwell, Dybdahl and Morgenfeld go out conservitively, so Fast Horse may build a big lead early.
I also give Aydon Stefanopoulos an outside shot to break into the top 3.
D3
14 Evan Noonan 11 Dana Hills (SS) Woodbridge Classic CA 9/16/2023 194.23 194
31 Joshua Bell 12 Templeton (CS) Clovis Invitational CA 10/7/2023 192.10 192
130 Josh Chu 12 Ponderosa (SJ) Clovis Invitational CA 10/7/2023 187.67 188
186 Omar Alsaidi 12 Oakdale (SJ) Clovis Invitational CA 10/7/2023 185.50 186
165 Caden Hicks 12 University City (SD) Mt. SAC Invite CA 10/20/2023 186.00 186
Noonan is the favorite, and he may run the fastest time of the day, but the race may have the slowest first mile. Neither Noonan or Bell typically pushes the first mile, so someone else could if they wanted to front run. But I expect Noonan and Hernandez to go the front and control the pace to their liking.
D4
11 Emmanuel Perez 12 Cathedral (SS) Clovis Invitational CA 10/7/2023 194.80 195
19 Broen Holman 11 Sonora (SJ) Clovis Invitational CA 10/7/2023 193.37 193
101 Eli Fitchen-Young 11 Santa Cruz (CC) CIF Central Coast CA 11/11/2023 188.63 189
108 Ethan Parcells 12 Rim of the World (SS) Mt. SAC Invite CA 10/20/2023 188.33 188
121 Lucas Cohen 12 Albany (NC) Clovis Invitational CA 10/7/2023 187.87 188
213 Sam Franco 12 St. Francis (SS) Woodbridge Classic CA 9/16/2023 184.70 185
Wow, D4 may have the fastest top 5 of any division. I expect Perez to front run, although Cohen did that at Clovis. I don't think they will both let the pace slip, because if they do Holman will probably run a punishing last half of the race. Fitchen-Young could surprise, as he hasn't run a lot of contested races so a breakthrough could be looming.
D5
37 Landon Pretre 11 Menlo School (CC) Clovis Invitational CA 10/7/2023 191.67 192
133 Eyan Turk 11 Woodcrest Christian (SS) Clovis Invitational CA 10/7/2023 187.40 187
136 Everett Capelle 12 St. Margaret's Episcopal (SS) Clovis Invitational CA 10/7/2023 187.30 187
I am not sure how fit Pretre is compared to earlier in the year. He will need to be 100%, because Turk has looked great all year, and better than ever at SS pre-lims and finals.
I expect Capelle to be closer than he was at SS finals.

Speed ratings, just made up numbers.

Let them race.

pretre is supposedly injured. i’m not sure if he’s even gonna run.

It's time Cali after 47 pages of stupid talk. SHUT UP AND RUN!