I have AL with 3 in top 15 (roughly 2/8/15), OK St with 3 in top 10 (maybe all 5-10 and maybe a tad aggressive) and Bush 20-25. NM with 3 18-20 ish (just ahead of Bush) and 2 more 25-30. OK St 4th is ahead of NC St 5th, but their 5th is further back.
Just my opinion, but Jepkirui, Olemomi and Cook all making top 10 seems maybe a bit aggressive?
I think this is a case where yeah, odds are against all 3 placing top-10, but you couldn’t really come up with 3 to replace them as more likely to finish top-10.
My predictions:
1. Parker Valby Florida
2. Katelyn Tuohy NC State
3. Mercy Chelangat Alabama
4. Ceili McCabe West Virginia
5. Taylor Roe OSU
6. Kelsey Chmiel NC State
7. Hilda Olemomoi Alabama
8. Billah Jepkirui OSU
9. Natalie Cook OSU
10. Elise Stearns NAU
Yeah, it’s unlikely that 7 of the top 9 will come from 3 schools, but I can’t see guessing differently based on that.
JWH is one of the posters whose opinions I respect.... My top 21 of TEAM runners...I can't see Valby being out of top 3 in overall race unless she just goes too hard before final hill. With the times she has run it would not shock me if she wins. I really cant differentiate between those in two groups of 1) Cook to Stearns, and 2) the rest. For team purposes I assume all in each group place equally. But clearly being first or last in the group can swing team score and with a tight projection make a big difference in which team comes out on top. NC State Katelyn Tuohy Alabama Mercy Chelangat West Virginia Ceili McCabe NC State Kelsey Chmiel Oklahoma State Taylor Roe Oklahoma State Billah Jepkirui
Oklahoma State Natalie Cook Alabama Hilda Chebet Colorado Bailey Hertenstein Oregon State Kaylee Mitchell Northern Arizona Elise Stearns
Utah Emily Venters Alabama Amaris Tyynismaa New Mexico Amelia Mazza-Downie New Mexico Gracelyn Larkin New Mexico Samree Dishon Notre Dame Olivia Markezich Stanford Zofia Dudek Arkansas Isabel Van Camp BYU Aubrey Frentheway Colorado Emily Covert
Just my opinion, but Jepkirui, Olemomi and Cook all making top 10 seems maybe a bit aggressive?
I think this is a case where yeah, odds are against all 3 placing top-10, but you couldn’t really come up with 3 to replace them as more likely to finish top-10.
My predictions:
1. Parker Valby Florida
2. Katelyn Tuohy NC State
3. Mercy Chelangat Alabama
4. Ceili McCabe West Virginia
5. Taylor Roe OSU
6. Kelsey Chmiel NC State
7. Hilda Olemomoi Alabama
8. Billah Jepkirui OSU
9. Natalie Cook OSU
10. Elise Stearns NAU
Yeah, it’s unlikely that 7 of the top 9 will come from 3 schools, but I can’t see guessing differently based on that.
This is a good list, pretty close to what I think mine will be.
Cook and Jepkirui will both have home course advantage too, which counts for something on this particular course. But, Cook was 12 seconds back from Roe in the last race. I am not sure that she will make top 10 this year over some of the others who I think may be able to close that gap. Curious to see how they race tomorrow.
Surprisingly it has Roe #20 and Cook #61 in the simulation. That's way too low for either of them. I think some runners are getting dinged by slow regionals times.
JWH is one of the posters whose opinions I respect.... My top 21 of TEAM runners...I can't see Valby being out of top 3 in overall race unless she just goes too hard before final hill. With the times she has run it would not shock me if she wins. I really cant differentiate between those in two groups of 1) Cook to Stearns, and 2) the rest. For team purposes I assume all in each group place equally. But clearly being first or last in the group can swing team score and with a tight projection make a big difference in which team comes out on top. NC State Katelyn Tuohy Alabama Mercy Chelangat West Virginia Ceili McCabe NC State Kelsey Chmiel Oklahoma State Taylor Roe Oklahoma State Billah Jepkirui
Oklahoma State Natalie Cook Alabama Hilda Chebet Colorado Bailey Hertenstein Oregon State Kaylee Mitchell Northern Arizona Elise Stearns
Utah Emily Venters Alabama Amaris Tyynismaa New Mexico Amelia Mazza-Downie New Mexico Gracelyn Larkin New Mexico Samree Dishon Notre Dame Olivia Markezich Stanford Zofia Dudek Arkansas Isabel Van Camp BYU Aubrey Frentheway Colorado Emily Covert
I will slide Markezich up a group, ND as a whole looks better each week, so they look to be right there for 4th. NAU hasn't shown as much lately. AL still no better at 5 so at best fighting with ND for 4th imho.
Surprisingly it has Roe #20 and Cook #61 in the simulation. That's way too low for either of them. I think some runners are getting dinged by slow regionals times.
yes, that is crazy...I sympathize with the challenge of dealing with those running hard and those not
Surprisingly it has Roe #20 and Cook #61 in the simulation. That's way too low for either of them. I think some runners are getting dinged by slow regionals times.
yes, that is crazy...I sympathize with the challenge of dealing with those running hard and those not
Yes and Mccabe is #14.
It has got to be very challenging! So hard to tell who is running 'just enough' and who is going all out.
yes, that is crazy...I sympathize with the challenge of dealing with those running hard and those not
Yes and Mccabe is #14.
It has got to be very challenging! So hard to tell who is running 'just enough' and who is going all out.
Compounding it is I think often the top runners are running easy but the 4th and 5th (and other teams) are running hard - so the logic rates the top runners poorly
yes, that is crazy...I sympathize with the challenge of dealing with those running hard and those not
Yes and Mccabe is #14.
It has got to be very challenging! So hard to tell who is running 'just enough' and who is going all out.
It's almost impossible. I'm tweaking a few parameters in hopes that it may improve things a bit. In the off season I may experiment with taking into account your finishing place. I have a few ideas on how to do this