So this is probably one of the few areas where I disagree with what sirpoc has written as I understand it (I might just be misunderstand things) but I do not think CTL/Fitness works like this AT ALL. I know sirpoc had a really nice graph that matched his improvement in his 5k times, but I think that is more incidental of how he did his training (ie. extremely intelligently).
I used intervals before doing subthreshold training, and my highest ever Fitness/CTL was during a traditional marathon build just because of the relative volume I was running at (and the amount of hours I put into it). But I was still slow AF. I still am slow AF, but faster than I was then at the higher Fitness/CTL. Like, 30mins in a marathon faster. That is just because I have been running longer while maintaining a relatively high CTL.
My personal opinion is that CTL/Fitness score is ONLY useful as a measure of the volume of work you have done recently, which CAN be useful as a measure of RATE of improvement.
To borrow other exercise science terminology that I know better, assume you have the following values (which are very individualistic):
- MV (Maintenance Volume): Minimum volume required to prevent regression
- MEV (Minimum Effective Volume): Starting point for improvement, varies by training experience
- MAV (Maximum Adaptive Volume): Sweet spot range between MEV and MRV for optimal gains
- MRV (Maximum Recoverable Volume): Upper limit before recovery fails and gains stop
Fitness/CTL is useful for measuring the volume of aerobic work done, and can apply to the above definitions. You need a certain CTL to maintain your fitness, a certain CTL to improve, and there is a maximum CTL that you can handle without injuring yourself. Importantly, as you get more fit, all these values increase (especially when you are really pushing near your genetic limits, where basically all these values converge - the amount you need to improve is more than you are able to recover from, and you basically get stuck with MV being your MRV). So you need more to maintain, and more to keep improving.
I just think Sirpoc was able to increase his CTL at basically the exact rate that he was improving, so that he had near linear growth. He kept his CTL in the MAV area for 2 years (which is insanely impressive) because this training is so well designed to do exactly that, whereas most training you do 2-3 weeks where you end up above your MRV and need to deload or risk burnout or injury.
But when he was an 17:30 5k runner, if he had suddenly taken a week or 2 vacation to do a training camp and push his CTL up to where it was pre-London (which I think is pretty doable), I don't think he would have suddenly been able to run a 15:01 5k. It is the load you maintain OVER TIME that leads to an individual rate of improvement.
So there MIGHT be a way to calculate what someone's rate of improvement from a history of CTL and project a different rate of improvement if they can maintain a slightly higher CTL, but I don't know if that would be very useful as, like I said, you need more load to keep improving anyways.
Also, I think people generally vastly overestimate what MV and MEV are. It is why so-called "Weekend Warriors" can actually get surprisingly fast on surprisingly little volume. It is consistency over time (i.e. maintaining a load for an extended period of time) that is important more so than just hitting a high load/CTL once.
End rant.