Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

There is no doubt in my mind that scholars in the future will regard Trump as the very worst president we've ever had to this point. At least since WW2 anyway.

Before that the game was different.

Well, at least agip can spell F-D-R.

Couple of weeks ago he claimed to have never heard of him.

They say you suppress traumatic memories...

Speaking of FDR, he followed a ‘pub who did nothing about the Depression.

Now we’ve got another Depression and another do-nothing ‘pub.

Gas is $1.01 here in Arkansas today. They still don’t have many customers.

Amazing, the lack of leadership from Trump and company:

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/a-plan-to-defeat-coronavirus-finally-emerges-but-its-not-from-the-white-house/

Adjusted for inflation, that’s an all-time low.

Or as sally would say, It’s not an all-time low! We’ve only had gasoline for 150 years!

Nationwide we’ve seen gas as low as 93 cents, about a third of the Depression price, inflation-adjusted.

Buy up those oil futures, agip. It can’t go much lower.

Conundrum wrote:

Are these Republican ministers so determined not to miss out on their big money maker day that they are endangering everyone's wellbeing?

God has plans for everything.

If some of those church goers get Covid-19, that's what God intended.

Just ask Richard Mourdock.

agip wrote:

jesseriley wrote:

It’s academic, since we’ll continue to get information from other countries. It’s not going well for the “herd immunity” faction.

The people thinking that other countries don’t affect us are the first to be surprised that anti-virus supplies don’t arrive on time.

Not able to say yet where we are on the herd immunity issue.

The IHME model keeps dropping the expected death toll by large amounts...several reasons for that but one could be that herd immunity is starting to take hold in densely populated areas.

INCORRECT! (as FP likes to say).

We know for certain that we are a very long way from "herd immunity". That is a known fact for anyone who understands what the numbers are telling us.

The rate of growth of COVID-19 is WAY down for one reason and one reason only - SIP.

agip wrote:

data reporting is not smooth...even nations with huge central gpv't like france have crazy swings. based on things you would not be able to guess.

We can't really believe the data on a day to day basis...but we can look for trends.

CORRECT!

As far as looking for trends though, one would have to be blind to not be able to see the big trend going on worldwide that I told you folks about more than a week ago. Does anybody still really not see this? The big trend is good - very good.

P wrote:

agip wrote:

Not able to say yet where we are on the herd immunity issue.

The IHME model keeps dropping the expected death toll by large amounts...several reasons for that but one could be that herd immunity is starting to take hold in densely populated areas.

INCORRECT! (as FP likes to say).

We know for certain that we are a very long way from "herd immunity". That is a known fact for anyone who understands what the numbers are telling us.

The rate of growth of COVID-19 is WAY down for one reason and one reason only - SIP.

I specifically added the term 'in densely populated areas.' In NYC something like 50% of tests are coming back positive. While in upstate NY it's far lower.

I don't believe we don't have evidence yet to absolutely rule out some herd immunity starting to help the situation in NYC. Not necessarily the dominant factor but one of the factors, along with social distancing.

Yosinglerlt wrote:

jesseriley wrote:

Exactly, even these horrific numbers aren’t complete, and some states are late in instituting virus countermeasures (Florida), so the future looks worse.

Trump’s gameplan is always to delay bad news, not prevent it from happening.

And some states who don't have statewide countermeasures are prolonging the peak period.

Iowa - projected to reach peak in 17 days

Arkansas - 18 days

Oklahoma -15 days

Nebraska - 17 days

------

Georgia - 12 days

Florida - 12 days

----

NY - 0 days

NJ - 2 days

This is not a result of prolonging the peak period. It is a result of COVID-19 getting a later start in other states as compared to NY/NJ.

Indeed, effective countermeasures tend to prolong the peak period, not the other way around. That is the whole idea behind "flattening the curve."

agip wrote:

P wrote:

INCORRECT! (as FP likes to say).

We know for certain that we are a very long way from "herd immunity". That is a known fact for anyone who understands what the numbers are telling us.

The rate of growth of COVID-19 is WAY down for one reason and one reason only - SIP.

I specifically added the term 'in densely populated areas.' In NYC something like 50% of tests are coming back positive. While in upstate NY it's far lower.

I don't believe we don't have evidence yet to absolutely rule out some herd immunity starting to help the situation in NYC. Not necessarily the dominant factor but one of the factors, along with social distancing.

I'm sorta making that up, which is a mistake. But certainly we will know more soon as many studies are underway trying to determine how many of us have already had the disease.

agip wrote:

There is no doubt in my mind that scholars in the future will regard Trump as the very worst president we've ever had to this point. At least since WW2 anyway.

Before that the game was different.

You mean, the very best president in history?

All the "experts" had been predicting that more than 100,00 Americans would die under the best possible scenario.

But now the projection is about 60,000, thanks to President Trump's superb leadership.

No one could have handled this crisis better.

This ^ (x1000)

jesseriley wrote:

Nationwide we’ve seen gas as low as 93 cents, about a third of the Depression price, inflation-adjusted.

Buy up those oil futures, agip. It can’t go much lower.

In ten years or so, gasoline for cars will be in demand like oats for horses.

Trump has refused to provide virus relief funds to the USPS. Mail revenue is down over 30%. Trump says, "raise the prices by, actually a lot."

A collapse of the USPS will live people who receive and pay bills by mail at risk of defaulting on everything. And which type of people receive and pay bills by mail? Older people, especially in rural areas. In other words, people who vote for Trump.

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1248314375406080000

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/04/09/trump-postal-workers-dont-deserve-financial-lifeline

P wrote:

agip wrote:

Not able to say yet where we are on the herd immunity issue.

The IHME model keeps dropping the expected death toll by large amounts...several reasons for that but one could be that herd immunity is starting to take hold in densely populated areas.

INCORRECT! (as FP likes to say).

We know for certain that we are a very long way from "herd immunity". That is a known fact for anyone who understands what the numbers are telling us.

The rate of growth of COVID-19 is WAY down for one reason and one reason only - SIP.

Correct!

At least probably correct. It's possible that there is some seasonal-related slowdown as well. We may never know.

A collapse of the USPS will CAUSE people who receive ...

Mostly true. The main point being that "It will take extraordinary measures to bring this terrible disease under control."

The numbers are a bit odd, though.

1) It would be much, much worse than 2,000/day without mitigation measures. Horrifyingly worse.

2) Probably you did not mean this but thinking of 2,000/day (or 500/day) continuing for a year is kind of silly. That is not at all how these curves work.

3) The disease has in fact peaked. At least peaked in terms of its growth rate. From that perspective (and that is the sensible way to look at it in that it allows us to see what the future holds), it has been on the decline for weeks now.

4) Assuming that SIP stays in place and remains as strong as it has been over the last two weeks, we will indeed see deaths/day drop below 500 within a month.

But yes, there is a very real danger of a second wave if we ease up on SIP too soon. :-(