Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

The key will be the gender vote...Women are far less likely to be Trumpists....will Joe give them a way out and let them vote for a D? I think so. But for sure, Rs will be trying to pry women away from Joe, with stories of touching and whatnot. Gonna be ugly.

Any optimists out there, for god’s sake please don’t look at those jobless claims (6.6M!).

In 3 weeks we’ve had close to 5 months’ worth of job losses, if EVERY week were a record like the former record of 700K.

People who like to count dead bodies won’t like to count that I bet.

jesseriley wrote:

Any optimists out there, for god’s sake please don’t look at those jobless claims (6.6M!).

.

You're not wrong..one interesting thing about those giant job loss numbers is that just the fact that unemployment insurance infrastructure is working and not completely jammed up and failing is good news.

It means society/gov't is functioning...and it means that unemployment insurance checks will start going out quickly. Which will give people money to spend, which will help the economy.

Much worse would be if the numbers were suspiciously small because websites were crashing or staffers not doing their jobs.

agip wrote:

Much worse would be if the numbers were suspiciously small because websites were crashing or staffers not doing their jobs.

I have read reports that this is exactly what is happening in Florida. Republicans made it especially hard to file for unemployment. So the state has limited capacity to handle claims.

agip wrote:

The key will be the gender vote...Women are far less likely to be Trumpists....will Joe give them a way out and let them vote for a D? I think so. But for sure, Rs will be trying to pry women away from Joe, with stories of touching and whatnot. Gonna be ugly.

What woman would vote for Trump because she thought Trump was more appropriate with women?

That's a woman who was going to vote for him anyway.

I see the latest two pulls (12:05pm and 6:06pm) as having 329 deaths and the two earlier pulls (12am and 6am) having 294.

Regardless, according to the GDPH, it was from from an increase in labs reporting and improvements from other labs and the data was inserted into that day's report.

Exactly, even these horrific numbers aren’t complete, and some states are late in instituting virus countermeasures (Florida), so the future looks worse.

Trump’s gameplan is always to delay bad news, not prevent it from happening.

L L wrote:

agip wrote:

The key will be the gender vote...Women are far less likely to be Trumpists....will Joe give them a way out and let them vote for a D? I think so. But for sure, Rs will be trying to pry women away from Joe, with stories of touching and whatnot. Gonna be ugly.

What woman would vote for Trump because she thought Trump was more appropriate with women?

That's a woman who was going to vote for him anyway.

it's more complex than that...

imagine a white suburban woman who tends to vote R because she doesn't fit in with D's push for transgender bathrooms, constant talk of gay issues, constant PC talk etc. That is her issue, not specifically how trump is with women. So if she thinks Biden would go down that road she might hold her nose and vote for trump.

if she thinks biden would be less PC, then she would vote Biden.

So the R defense will be to make Biden too icky to consider...to create another wedge issue...to get that white suburban woman not to be able to get past the accusations vs. biden.

another thing is just the all-out Trumpist desire to say 'hey we're all corrupt and disgusting. just vote for the tribal white political party and be on team white people'

jesseriley wrote:

Exactly, even these horrific numbers aren’t complete, and some states are late in instituting virus countermeasures (Florida), so the future looks worse.

Trump’s gameplan is always to delay bad news, not prevent it from happening.

And some states who don't have statewide countermeasures are prolonging the peak period.

Iowa - projected to reach peak in 17 days

Arkansas - 18 days

Oklahoma -15 days

Nebraska - 17 days

------

Georgia - 12 days

Florida - 12 days

----

NY - 0 days

NJ - 2 days

Yes, I’m in Arkansas. Haven’t seen any large groups of people in a long time, but cases are slowly growing with only voluntary measures, and the economy is still crashing. Even if people aren’t eligible for unemployment benefits (rules are strict here), they’re still even poorer than people in other states who have them.

" (the) D's push for transgender bathrooms, constant talk of gay issues, constant PC talk etc."

Name one Democrat that is campaigning on those issues.

Also, what is "PC talk" and provide an example of where not being PC is beneficial.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

" (the) D's push for transgender bathrooms, constant talk of gay issues, constant PC talk etc."

Name one Democrat that is campaigning on those issues.

Also, what is "PC talk" and provide an example of where not being PC is beneficial.

I don't think Trump's quote about grabbin' by the pu$$y" was very PC, but I think it probably benefited him.

Maybe not so much on the Dem. side. Although Gillebrand taking on sexual harassment seems to have sunk her candidacy before it began (not sure if she would have been a strong candidate without that though).

To the fellow who asked about the definition of the Agip Coefficient. This was obviously named in honor of agip and his early emphasis on the question of whether there are vastly more people who have been infected with COVID-19 than are actually being officially reported.

Definition: Agip Coefficient = # ACTUAL COVID-19 Infections / # REPORTED COVID-19 Infections

Today, worldwide there are about 1.6 million reported cases of COVID-19. If the Agip Coefficient is 2 then there are about 3.2 million infections worldwide. With an Agip Coefficient of 100 there would be 160 million infections worldwide.

Even with an Agip Coefficient of 100, the 160 million actual infections worldwide does very little to flatten the curve when seen in the context of a total population of 7.8 billion.

There are some hints (not yet conclusive) that the actual value of the Agip Coefficient is on the order of 10 - not large enough to do us much good at this point with respect to herd immunity.

As a Trump hater his base is built on an anti PC platform to a great degree. It doesn't need to be spoken. As a for example, my MIL is a Trump fan for a few different reasons one of which is that I think she's smitten with the perceived celebrity of him but she also typically supports men who have charges of being a sexual predator and that includes criminal charges and attributes those charges to more Liberal ideals. However I think these people were always going to vote for Trump anyway so there should be little concern that a Democrat would be "losing" someone who thinks this way.

Trollminator wrote:

We need to be clear that the reason we are seeing any curves flattening is because governments began imposing strict measures weeks ago. This is also how they can reliably predict that the rate of case increases will decline in the short run. The biggest unknown for projections is again when and by how much governments will relax their measures and how wide the differences in policy vary between those governments. The most reliable projections we can make are for the potential min and max number of infections.

This ^ is exactly right!

interested reader wrote:

Hey agip, here is a basis for estimating growth rate from the daily proportional change, measured either as doubling period, in days, which some people use, or else % daily change:

https://ibb.co/1fLHXtt

We can look at reported cases and fatalities to see how the 9% daily change (based on a 5-day average in my illustration below) corresponds really well with an observed peak:

https://ibb.co/c35d4SR

Both peaks for cases and fatalities correspond very well with the day that daily change dropped below 9%. We can also look at Canada and US:

https://ibb.co/Ytfbt1Xhttps://ibb.co/mykKhN6

Both have approximately reached peaks for new cases, but look to be a few days, maybe a week, from peak fatalities. So a few more bad days, then things should start to look progressively better.

Unless I'm an idiot, which is entirely possible...

No, you are not an idiot. That was an excellent post!

realism smacks you in the mouth wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

" (the) D's push for transgender bathrooms, constant talk of gay issues, constant PC talk etc."

Name one Democrat that is campaigning on those issues.

Also, what is "PC talk" and provide an example of where not being PC is beneficial.

I don't think Trump's quote about grabbin' by the pu$$y" was very PC, but I think it probably benefited him.

Maybe not so much on the Dem. side. Although Gillebrand taking on sexual harassment seems to have sunk her candidacy before it began (not sure if she would have been a strong candidate without that though).

No, I meant an example of not being PC being for the greater good.

Trump saying "Grab them by the pu**y" was not about being PC. Except for the most fanatical members of his base, people were disgusted when they heard it.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

realism smacks you in the mouth wrote:

I don't think Trump's quote about grabbin' by the pu$$y" was very PC, but I think it probably benefited him.

Maybe not so much on the Dem. side. Although Gillebrand taking on sexual harassment seems to have sunk her candidacy before it began (not sure if she would have been a strong candidate without that though).

No, I meant an example of not being PC being for the greater good.

Trump saying "Grab them by the pu**y" was not about being PC. Except for the most fanatical members of his base, people were disgusted when they heard it.

Within his base it was locker room talk. A bit extreme maybe but still an example of an issue his base is/was tired of dealing with. His base wants to be able to run their lives exactly as they did when they were much younger. Probably mid 1980's and prior.