Maserati wrote:And if you think there is no better place on earth, you need to travel more. To each his own, though.
I've travelled very widely. I love Vancouver on a sunnry morning. As you wrote, to each his own.
And no I will never have enough money to buy a condo on English Bay, not now, not in 20-25 years. I am a normal human... ;-)
starting to form that classic v shape on the charts...sp500 up 5.8% in 5 trading days...
.....also referred to as the last gasp of a dying market......
Well, in another hour we will know if Janet can save the market. If she can't do it, next man up, Mark Zuckerberg.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Well, in another hour we will know if Janet can save the market. If she can't do it, next man up, Mark Zuckerberg.
heh
pretty much the only indicator I would listen to completely is if the yield curve inverted. That seems to be a very good predictor of recession.
Right now the curve is fairly steep compared to history, suggesting increased economic activity. But it is the least steep it has been in years.
agip,
The yield curve has been distorted by Fed policies, so I am not sure it tells you much.
Igy
agip,
When I was first in the business the most experienced broker took his cue from the Dow Theory. The transports turned down over a year ago (peak 11/28/2014) and six months later (5/22/2015).
Igy
Dow Theory on Transportation Index:
"In Dow's time, the US was a growing industrial power. The US had population centers but factories were scattered throughout the country. Factories had to ship their goods to market, usually by rail. Dow's first stock averages were an index of industrial (manufacturing) companies and rail companies. To Dow, a bull market in industrials could not occur unless the railway average rallied as well, usually first. According to this logic, if manufacturers' profits are rising, it follows that they are producing more. If they produce more, then they have to ship more goods to consumers. Hence, if an investor is looking for signs of health in manufacturers, he or she should look at the performance of the companies that ship the output of them to market, the railroads. The two averages should be moving in the same direction. When the performance of the averages diverge, it is a warning that change is in the air. Both Barron's Magazine and the Wall Street Journal still publish the daily performance of the Dow Jones Transportation Average in chart form. The index contains major railroads, shipping companies, and air freight carriers in the US."
*Wikipedia, Dow Theory
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Dow Theory on Transportation Index:
"In Dow's time, the US was a growing industrial power. The US had population centers but factories were scattered throughout the country. Factories had to ship their goods to market, usually by rail. Dow's first stock averages were an index of industrial (manufacturing) companies and rail companies. To Dow, a bull market in industrials could not occur unless the railway average rallied as well, usually first. According to this logic, if manufacturers' profits are rising, it follows that they are producing more. If they produce more, then they have to ship more goods to consumers. Hence, if an investor is looking for signs of health in manufacturers, he or she should look at the performance of the companies that ship the output of them to market, the railroads. The two averages should be moving in the same direction. When the performance of the averages diverge, it is a warning that change is in the air. Both Barron's Magazine and the Wall Street Journal still publish the daily performance of the Dow Jones Transportation Average in chart form. The index contains major railroads, shipping companies, and air freight carriers in the US."
*Wikipedia, Dow Theory
meh
dow theory barely worked if it worked at all when manufacturing was a large part of the economy. it at least made some sense back then.
That's changed now that mfgrng is such a small part of the economy so I can't believe the dow theory will produce excess returns.
If it ever did produce excess returns - there is conflicting evidence.
agip,
I am not discounting its relevance, it has done a pretty good job so far. Perhaps a better indicator that S&P operating earnings.
Rest assured that someone will save this market. If not Tim, then Janet. If not Janet then Mark. If not Mark then Reed Hastings. If not Reed, then.......
Igy
$toopid... wrote:
Maserati wrote:And if you think there is no better place on earth, you need to travel more. To each his own, though.I've travelled very widely. I love Vancouver on a sunnry morning. As you wrote, to each his own.
And no I will never have enough money to buy a condo on English Bay, not now, not in 20-25 years. I am a normal human... ;-)
Never say never, even if you are risk-averse. In 20 years that condo might cost a lot less, and you may have a lot more. Life can take many different turns.
Rail transport has increasingly been occupied with oil transport. It could be argued that rail shipment of crude to a refinery, then to other modalities, is a decent indicator of economic activity.
It is IMO a sad state of affairs that we now collectively look to regulators, policymakers, and banks to provide basic popular economic leadership, e.g. Yellen.
Today, those people are "out front", and business is stuck responding. It is the tail wagging the dog, and should be (and used to be) the other way around.
I'm sure everybody is on the edge of their seat waiting for Yellen.
Maserati,
Agreed, but I think Yellin has less power that what people think she does. Keep in mind the Fed was cutting rates throughout the financial crisis. Where is the ammunition today? You can say ZIRP but it hasn't done much for Europe or Japan. It is the antithesis of the tiger that coach d is riding. The tiger eats the rider.
Igy
Zuckerberg! Mark, get over here, now!
Coach Market: What was that about Janet?
Janet Yellin: Well you need to talk to Ben, because he put me in this situation. Besides Mario and Abe aren’t doing any better.
Coach Market: First Tim Cook then you! Mark, Mark…..Zuckerberg you are next man up!
Mark Zuckerberg: But Coach, I don’t think these pads will fit under my t-shirt.
Courtesy of Igy
agip wrote:
pretty much the only indicator I would listen to completely is if the yield curve inverted. That seems to be a very good predictor of recession.
Right now the curve is fairly steep compared to history, suggesting increased economic activity. But it is the least steep it has been in years.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/T10Y2Y
This is the official Treasury Yield Curve chart:
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/Historic-Yield-Data-Visualization.aspxIt is not partially inverted, but it seems headed that way. Compare now with. December 1-15.
Leading indicators (not suggesting any recession any time soon):
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USSLINDI'm expecting a retest of the lows in a month or so, then the following rally will suggest whether we're heading toward a bear market or just ending a correction. In my mind, this time to be repositioning rather than going short until a bear market is confirmed.
The Simple Analytics of Helicopter Money: Why It Works — Always:
http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2014-28/version-2/count
coach d,
It is an experiment of one. Similar to carbohydrate loading for a marathoner. It may work but it is physiological dynamite. In this case economic dynamite.
Igy