Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

Trollminator wrote:

Thanks for this. In my stats class we are trying to piece together the impact of local measures on the spread. What should scare people is what will happen when the measures are inevitably relaxed - what will the rate of spread look like then? The point of the measures is to flatten the curve and thus prolong and break up the massive impact on the health system. The measures will be relaxed at different times in different places depending on the slowdown of cases and deaths. My overall assumption is that in highly populated areas there will be several flare-ups and waves of measures... COVID is not going away quickly.

Sounds more like a sociological study than a statistical one, though many would argue that stats is a soft science.

Sanders took a month or two too long to drop out but at least he finally did the right thing for the nation.

Biden's 6 point lead vs trump has been consistent - the mob boss president has never really been able to get aboe 44% of the electorate to support him - as long as that stays the same we should be rid of him and his crime family in 9 months.

Trollminator wrote:

In other news, Bernie is finally out.

That's bad news for ordinary Americans and bad news for the planet.

I've always loved Joe Biden though. He is as decent as Tiny is corrupt. He will make a great president.

I just worry that he is too much on the side of corporate interests and doesn't clearly understand the climate threat.

Racket wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

Thanks for this. In my stats class we are trying to piece together the impact of local measures on the spread. What should scare people is what will happen when the measures are inevitably relaxed - what will the rate of spread look like then? The point of the measures is to flatten the curve and thus prolong and break up the massive impact on the health system. The measures will be relaxed at different times in different places depending on the slowdown of cases and deaths. My overall assumption is that in highly populated areas there will be several flare-ups and waves of measures... COVID is not going away quickly.

Sounds more like a sociological study than a statistical one, though many would argue that stats is a soft science.

The stats side attempts to draws inferences from relationships, so it has a broad scope. To the extent sociological factors (or any others) can be measured they can be studied statistically, so what is your point?

agip wrote:

Sanders took a month or two too long to drop out but at least he finally did the right thing for the nation.

Biden's 6 point lead vs trump has been consistent - the mob boss president has never really been able to get aboe 44% of the electorate to support him - as long as that stays the same we should be rid of him and his crime family in 9 months.

It's shocking he hasn't been able to elevate his approval rating significantly. Under any crisis the POTUS usually gets a huge default bump. I hope it means something in Nov.

Hopefully Sanders dropping out means the media gives Biden more air time. He's trying to make himself more accessible - holding a live stream townhall session tonight

https://joebiden.com/live/

Trollminator wrote:

Thanks for this. In my stats class we are trying to piece together the impact of local measures on the spread. What should scare people is what will happen when the measures are inevitably relaxed - what will the rate of spread look like then? The point of the measures is to flatten the curve and thus prolong and break up the massive impact on the health system. The measures will be relaxed at different times in different places depending on the slowdown of cases and deaths. My overall assumption is that in highly populated areas there will be several flare-ups and waves of measures... COVID is not going away quickly.

It's a good question. I think most here know of the recent downward revisions of estimates on disease spread on the IHME model. Those estimates presume strict adherence to the current stay-in-place orders through at least August 1. The downward revisions were due to a higher adherence to those measures than expected. Relax those and the model with go right back up.

I do not think that is going to hold. I mean, government can mostly prevent businesses from re-opening, but traffic is already picking up in my town and I think before the end of April people are really going to start flouting them. I hope I am wrong.

Have to ask................... wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

When you look at the number of known infections vs broader population there is reason to remain very concerned. Herd immunity is a great strategy hypothetically... but the reality is letting the virus run its course naturally would result in at least 5 million deaths in a very short period of time, based on a 2% death rate. We are VERY far away from full exposure.

I didn't say we weren't, I was simply answering a question.

Your opinion could very well be correct. Of course, you could be completely wrong too.

I will readily admit I have no idea which direction anything is going. I do have my opinions though.

It amazes me how many people here have to be 'right'.

Well, I have been monitoring the stats for my state closely. I haven't paid too much attention to other states. In my state, about 10% of tests are coming back positive. And of course that is the number among people who are showing some sort of symptoms and meet the testing criteria. A cursory look shows it is higher in other places, which have less tests per population (a matric worldmeters added recently). The stat that only 10% of those tested are coming back positive really argues against the idea that there is some sort of large mass of infected people who are not being tested. Undoubtedly there are some and without seriological testing we won't have a good way to know what that number is. But it would be awfully surprising if the "background number" was higher than the positive percentage. Which means, even for the couple of states I've looked at with much less testing, the prevalence can't be more than 1/3, which is a long, long way from any sort of herd immunity.

Great points. I'm thinking governments MUST relax the orders at some point to continue exposure to CV. The ultimate goal is to achieve immunization, so managed exposure is the only method we have available now. This is necessary until there is an accessible vaccine, otherwise the full gridlock continues and the economic cost of preventing a single death skyrockets. The question to governments was always what is 1 life worth, 10k lives, 1 million. We now know the answer many governments had in mind.

agip wrote:

Sanders took a month or two too long to drop out but at least he finally did the right thing for the nation.

Why do you say he took too long?

The convention isn't until August.

I never got a chance to vote in my state's primary because it has been settled before my state was even scheduled to vote.

I am an outspoken Democrat and never had a say in the choice.

The process is rotten.

I liked Biden four years ago but he hasn't aged well.

Now I'm hoping I like his VP choice.

We need to be clear that the reason we are seeing any curves flattening is because governments began imposing strict measures weeks ago. This is also how they can reliably predict that the rate of case increases will decline in the short run. The biggest unknown for projections is again when and by how much governments will relax their measures and how wide the differences in policy vary between those governments. The most reliable projections we can make are for the potential min and max number of infections.

I think agip wishes bernie had dropped out before he was even born. He feels that bernie’s pregnant mother should have issued a statement: “My child should never challenge the status quo if he’s born healthy.”

Germany update: 500,000 tests a week, trying for more. We should imitate Germany.

agip wrote:

Sanders took a month or two too long to drop out but at least he finally did the right thing for the nation.

Biden's 6 point lead vs trump has been consistent - the mob boss president has never really been able to get aboe 44% of the electorate to support him - as long as that stays the same we should be rid of him and his crime family in 9 months.

Keep dreaming.

First debate question to Biden “Can you name the city & state you’re currently standing in?"

"Ummm, you know, you know the thing. Come on, man!"

Trump falls to the floor in laughter.

#Trumplandslide

"Four more years!"

KAG2020

L L wrote:

agip wrote:

Sanders took a month or two too long to drop out but at least he finally did the right thing for the nation.

Why do you say he took too long?

The convention isn't until August.

I never got a chance to vote in my state's primary because it has been settled before my state was even scheduled to vote.

I am an outspoken Democrat and never had a say in the choice.

The process is rotten.

I liked Biden four years ago but he hasn't aged well.

Now I'm hoping I like his VP choice.

Okay, The Gap is starting to widen a bit, after having closed pretty steadily for a week or two--now back above five points.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

moderates suck wrote:

I do not think that is going to hold. I mean, government can mostly prevent businesses from re-opening, but traffic is already picking up in my town and I think before the end of April people are really going to start flouting them. I hope I am wrong.

My observation as well and this is in particular in areas of the country where the virus hasn't yet been an overall problem. I think the US population's patience for stay at home is already starting to wane except perhaps in virus strongholds. We actually may get to a point in which the governments basically shrug and say that we might as well open things up completely again. I don't think we'll see events such as sporting events and concerts being staged until a vaccine is provided or the virus completely runs out of steam but I can see us getting back to "normal" (maybe school back in session and everyone going back to work with strict instructions on how was scrub up and avoid facial touching) fairly soon.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

agip wrote:

Sanders took a month or two too long to drop out but at least he finally did the right thing for the nation.

Biden's 6 point lead vs trump has been consistent - the mob boss president has never really been able to get aboe 44% of the electorate to support him - as long as that stays the same we should be rid of him and his crime family in 9 months.

Keep dreaming.

First debate question to Biden “Can you name the city & state you’re currently standing in?"

"Ummm, you know, you know the thing. Come on, man!"

Trump falls to the floor in laughter.

#Trumplandslide

"Four more years!"

KAG2020

nitwit...this is Trump vs Trump. Whether Biden says or does anything has zero to do with how the election will turn out. Right now Trump is facing an uphill battle.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

agip wrote:

Sanders took a month or two too long to drop out but at least he finally did the right thing for the nation.

Biden's 6 point lead vs trump has been consistent - the mob boss president has never really been able to get aboe 44% of the electorate to support him - as long as that stays the same we should be rid of him and his crime family in 9 months.

Keep dreaming.

First debate question to Biden “Can you name the city & state you’re currently standing in?"

"Ummm, you know, you know the thing. Come on, man!"

Trump falls to the floor in laughter.

#Trumplandslide

"Four more years!"

KAG2020

Tiny will never agree to a debate with Biden. He will run scared.