Trump is a looser wrote:
Boris Johnson, UK Prime Minister, and believe in Trump's COV hoax, has been place in intensive care with a bad case of COV.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/uk/boris-johnson-coronavirus-hospital-gbr-intl/index.html
For the leader of a nuclear power to lose control of the government is a very, very serious problem.
agip wrote:
Trump is a looser wrote:
Boris Johnson, UK Prime Minister, and believe in Trump's COV hoax, has been place in intensive care with a bad case of COV.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/uk/boris-johnson-coronavirus-hospital-gbr-intl/index.htmlFor the leader of a nuclear power to lose control of the government is a very, very serious problem.
Which leader are you talking about?
Armstronglivs wrote:
agip wrote:
For the leader of a nuclear power to lose control of the government is a very, very serious problem.
Boris.
Which leader are you talking about?
agip wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
Which leader are you talking about?
Boris.
"Mr Johnson has asked Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab to deputise "where necessary", the spokesman added."
Yosinglerlt wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
Hence the large provision being set aside by FOX for the incoming avalanche of lawsuits.. they opted for propaganda instead of truth. Their reputation has become worse than RT's.
They can sue all they want, but they have no chance.
What would anyone even sue for?
A lot.. here’s one of the most recent examples and I wouldn’t call it a nothingburger just yet since even FOX management seemed concerned about the BS they were feeding the public.
“the suit claims the “defendants acted in bad faith to willfully and maliciously disseminate false information denying and minimizing the danger posed by the spread of the novel Coronavirus, or COVID-19, which is now recognized as an international pandemic.” WASHLITE board member Arthur West justified the suit by accusing Fox News of goading Americans into ignoring social distancing measures, thus exacerbating the outbreak. “That’s the real evil of this type of programming,” he told the Times of San Diego. “We believe it delayed and interfered with a prompt and adequate response to this coronavirus pandemic.””
“ This time, however, might be very different from the Rich case. During a Sunday appearance on MSNBC, my colleague Gabriel Sherman said Fox insiders had expressed “real concern...that their early downplaying of the coronavirus actually exposes Fox News to potential legal action by viewers who maybe were misled and actually have died from this.””
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/fox-news-prepares-coronavirus-misinformation-lawsuitsFat hurts wrote:
Yes, it is good news. But the better news is that more big red states like Florida and Georgia have finally issued stay at home orders. Everywhere around the world, the one thing that has proven to work is for everyone to stay home.
New Deaths lags New Cases
Decline in New Case Growth lags Stay at Home Orders
. . . .
Agreed 100%
agip wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Yes, it is good news. But the better news is that more big red states like Florida and Georgia have finally issued stay at home orders. Everywhere around the world, the one thing that has proven to work is for everyone to stay home.
New Deaths lags New Cases
Decline in New Case Growth lags Stay at Home Orders
I haven't done the state-by-state analysis, but I expect that states like California who shut down early will fare much better than states who waited. I expect the data will eventually show that during a pandemic you are much better off having a Democrat as governor.
A Democrat is going to react sooner and take more decisive action to protect the people while a Republican is going to protect businesses as long as possible.
Democrats care about people. Republicans care about profits.
P when we see stories of 7-10 day backups in testing programs, and 160,000 test backlogs...isn't there a large chance the conclusions you are drawing are just a mirage? Based on test results that don't reflect what is going on out there?
No. Not only is there not a “large chance” that the conclusions I'm drawing are a mirage, there is no chance at all. Zero.
1) The problems in testing are not new. Indeed, there is very little doubt that the testing regime has improved over time. It would only be if testing used to be good and now it is significantly worse that it would be a problem. But in fact the situation is the opposite of that.
2) We know when the US first started imposing SIP orders. We know how long these take to have an impact. We have seen this all before in countries around the world. So, unless everyone everywhere is just making up all this data it is very clear what is going on. And what is going on is what I have been telling you is going on. Everything in the US has been improving since SIP orders started coming into effet.
Armstronglivs wrote:
P wrote:
USA - Good News! (Really)
///
Yes, I know the headlines today will be that this is the greatest number of deaths in the US in one day by a long shot. But as usual, the headlines miss the real news. For those who understand that imperfect data is not the same thing as useless data, today continues a very positive trend for the US.
///
First, the numbers
All case/death numbers below represent daily percentage growth in overall cases/deaths.
USA Daily percentage growth in cases
Mar 8: 33.9%
Mar 9: 24.5%
Mar 10: 27.4%
Mar 11: 20.6%
Mar 12: 24.8%
Mar 13. 28.7%
Mar 14: 27.7%
Mar 15: 27.0%
Mar 16: 26.8%
Mar 17: 36.0%
Mar 18: 46.2%
Mar 19: 48.8%
Mar 20: 39.1%
Mar 21: 24.6%
Mar 22: 35.3%
Mar 23: 34.3%
Mar 24: 22.6%
Mar 25: 23.6%
Mar 26: 29.2%
Mar 27: 19.6%
Mar 28: 19.6%
Mar 29: 16.3%
Mar 30: 15.5%
Mar 31: 14.6%
Apr 01: 14.5%
USA Daily percentage growth in deaths
Mar 8: 12.0%
Mar 9: 14.3%
Mar 10: 12.5%
Mar 11: 19.4%
Mar 12: 2.3%
Mar 13: 15.9%
Mar 14: 13.7%
Mar 15: 17.2%
Mar 16: 26.5%
Mar 17: 23.3%
Mar 18: 42.5%
Mar 19: 37.1%
Mar 20: 20.3%
Mar 21: 20.9%
Mar 22: 37.5%
Mar 23: 31.6%
Mar 24: 26.4%
Mar 25: 35.7%
Mar 26: 38.0%
Mar 27: 23.1%
Mar 28: 28.3%
Mar 29: 21.2%
Mar 30: 27.5%
Mar 31: 22.3%
Apr 01: 32.3%
USA Fatality Rate (Cumulative deaths/cases)
Mar 7: 4.5%
Mar 8: 3.8%
Mar 9: 3.5%
Mar 10: 3.1%
Mar 11: 3.0%
Mar 12: 2.5%
Mar 13: 2.2%
Mar 14: 2.0%
Mar 15: 1.8%
Mar 16: 1.8%
Mar 17: 1.7%
Mar 18: 1.6%
Mar 19: 1.5%
Mar 20: 1.3%
Mar 21: 1.3%
Mar 22: 1.3%
Mar 23: 1.3%
Mar 24: 1.3%
Mar 25: 1.4%
Mar 26: 1.5%
Mar 27: 1.6%
Mar 28: 1.7%
Mar 29: 1.7%
Mar 30: 1.9%
Mar 31: 2.1%
Apr: 01: 2.4%
///
Note 1: Fatality rate is rising rather dramatically from a low of 1.3% to 2.4% now. This is seriously bad news, right? No, it is actually good news. The fatality rate was being kept artificially low by the extremely rapid increase in the number of reported cases. The fact that it is rising so rapidly at this time primarily reflects the good news that the growth rate in the number of cases has fallen significantly.
Note 2: The real news (what everybody should be focusing on) is in the steady decline in the growth rate for reported cases. Everything is a lagging indicator in this but the case numbers are a less lagging indicator than the death numbers. The pattern for the US looks a great deal like that seen elsewhere. Look for the percentage growth in deaths to start to drop within a week and possibly within the next few days.
Note 3: Growth rate of reported cases, growth rate of deaths, fatality rate - these are the only three numbers to watch if you want to understand what is going on. Right now, reported cases is telling the story (which the "news" will pick up on eventually). And the story is good news right now.
"For those who understand that imperfect data is not the same thing as useless data, today continues a very positive trend for the US."
The crisis has yet to peak and we are told by the health experts will get worse - much worse - before it gets better.
Your infatuation with your figures and your illusory "water-divining" capacities blind you to what is happening in front of your face and what is obvious to so many others. Not only are your posts virtually unreadable, they essentially propagate insights you don't have - you have no epidemiological knowledge or qualifications and this crisis absolutely calls for such knowledge - and your predictions actively mislead. You could be working in the White House.
I assume by now you are very aware how completely wrong you were with this ^ post. And how 100% correct I was with my own. If not, I will make that abundantly clear shortly.
No hard feelings. You are just wrong. Unable to see the forest. And quite incapable of understanding beyond the media headlines as to what is really going on. What is going on is good. Very good. At least from the perspective of getting COVID-19 under control.
Have to ask............,,, wrote:
I won't comment on how useful or useless the poster analysis is here because as I have maintained from the beginning there hasn't been and still isn't enough information available (doesn't mean someone's guess isn't correct though) but I'll say this, I find it entertaining that P and agip seem to have flipped positions here.
For weeks agip was positive guy and P had end of the world predictions, now both of their narratives have flipped.
I could be wrong, and am often, but it seems to me that eventually we all have to be exposed to this so beyond the positive aspect of flattening the curve in the short term, at some point, we all are going to have to get back to normal life and ultimately be exposed to this virus.
Sorry, but you are simply wrong about there being not enough information to go on. In fact, there is an abundance of information. I would go further to say that there is an overabundance of information and that much of it is worthless and/or misleading. Unfortunately many, including many on this thread, have difficulty focusing on the information that matters. Even when told repeatedly what to focus on they still get distracted by the trees (and flowers and mushrooms and rotting logs…) and fail to see the forest which is staring us all right in the face.
And as far as narratives getting flipped – My narrative is correct, has been correct and will continue to be correct. The only reason that it may appear flipped is that the facts on the ground have changed. And changed quite dramatically.
I told you, when there were only a relative handful of cases out there, that this thing was going to hit us like a tsunami. That it was going to effectively shut this country down. I was right.
And now I am telling you, doom and gloom headlines notwithstanding, that we are clearly winning the war on COVID-19. And it isn’t close. At some point you will realize that I am right about that too. I am not sure exactly when you will recognize you will, sooner or later.
Have to ask............ wrote:
P,
While I'm very pleased to see your numbers and hoping your conclusions are correct. I am a bit concerned that the test results are not really arriving in a timely manner and therefore the drop in case numbers isn't accurate. Hope i'm wrong about that.
Yes, my hope aligns with yours. However, I am not really hoping. I am certain. The data we have is far more than enough to see that the downturn is real.
Armstronglivs wrote:
P wrote:
Pretty Sure I Told You Folks What Was Going to Happen
- Any Questions? -
///
USA Daily percentage growth in cases
Mar 8: 33.9%
Mar 9: 24.5%
Mar 10: 27.4%
Mar 11: 20.6%
Mar 12: 24.8%
Mar 13. 28.7%
Mar 14: 27.7%
Mar 15: 27.0%
Mar 16: 26.8%
Mar 17: 36.0%
Mar 18: 46.2%
Mar 19: 48.8%
Mar 20: 39.1%
Mar 21: 24.6%
Mar 22: 35.3%
Mar 23: 34.3%
Mar 24: 22.6%
Mar 25: 23.6%
Mar 26: 29.2%
Mar 27: 19.6%
Mar 28: 19.6%
Mar 29: 16.3%
Mar 30: 15.5%
Mar 31: 14.6%
Apr 01: 14.5%
Apr 02: 13.9%
USA Daily percentage growth in deaths
Mar 8: 12.0%
Mar 9: 14.3%
Mar 10: 12.5%
Mar 11: 19.4%
Mar 12: 2.3%
Mar 13: 15.9%
Mar 14: 13.7%
Mar 15: 17.2%
Mar 16: 26.5%
Mar 17: 23.3%
Mar 18: 42.5%
Mar 19: 37.1%
Mar 20: 20.3%
Mar 21: 20.9%
Mar 22: 37.5%
Mar 23: 31.6%
Mar 24: 26.4%
Mar 25: 35.7%
Mar 26: 38.0%
Mar 27: 23.1%
Mar 28: 28.3%
Mar 29: 21.2%
Mar 30: 27.5%
Mar 31: 22.3%
Apr 01: 32.3%
* * Apr 02: 15.5%< - * *
USA Fatality Rate (Cumulative deaths/cases)
Mar 7: 4.5%
Mar 8: 3.8%
Mar 9: 3.5%
Mar 10: 3.1%
Mar 11: 3.0%
Mar 12: 2.5%
Mar 13: 2.2%
Mar 14: 2.0%
Mar 15: 1.8%
Mar 16: 1.8%
Mar 17: 1.7%
Mar 18: 1.6%
Mar 19: 1.5%
Mar 20: 1.3%
Mar 21: 1.3%
Mar 22: 1.3%
Mar 23: 1.3%
Mar 24: 1.3%
Mar 25: 1.4%
Mar 26: 1.5%
Mar 27: 1.6%
Mar 28: 1.7%
Mar 29: 1.7%
Mar 30: 1.9%
Mar 31: 2.1%
Apr 01: 2.4%
Apr 02: 2.4%
///
Note 2: The real news (what everybody should be focusing on) is in the steady decline in the growth rate for reported cases. Everything is a lagging indicator in this but the case numbers are a less lagging indicator than the death numbers. The pattern for the US looks a great deal like that seen elsewhere. Look for the percentage growth in deaths to start to drop within a week and possibly within the next few days.
Note 3: Growth rate of reported cases, growth rate of deaths, fatality rate - these are the only three numbers to watch if you want to understand what is going on. Right now, reported cases is telling the story (which the "news" will pick up on eventually). And the story is good news right now.
So you think you can make accurate predictions on partial data? Dr Birx is considerably more humble than you are. But we know that already.
https://amp-cnn-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/02/politics/birx-task-force-coronavirus-testing/index.html?amp_js_v=a2&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15858875116072&_ct=1585887518062&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2020%2F04%2F02%2Fpolitics%2Fbirx-task-force-coronavirus-testing%2Findex.html
I am not making predictions. I am stating mathematical certainties. I assume that you can see that by now.
And as far as humility goes – humility is nice, but the truth is what matters. I am providing everyone here with truth at a time when misleading crap is all around. If you value truth, pay attention. If you enjoy misleading crap, that is on you.
agip wrote:
P seriously...the testing data is so flawed as to be meaningless. Between huge numbers of false negatives, 7 day waits for results, hundreds of thousands of tests in a backlog....
Not sure why you won't address this.
Even the death data I use is flawed...turns out France has only been counting deaths in hospital, so today they said another 885 people died in retirement homes over the past few weeks, and just added the new deaths to 4/2.
Sorry, agip, I love you dude, but you are wrong again. The data available is not only adequate to do the job, it is spectacular. Better than any serious modeler could ever hope for.
France has updated how they count deaths? Russian data is garbage? ... That is all noise. To state that "the testing data is so flawed as to be meaningless." is to show a level of ignorance that is almost hard to believe.
If the testing data is meaningless, how is it that we see the exact same pattern emerge in country after country both before SIP orders are put in place and afterwards? Think about it - that makes absolutey zero sense. And if it is all so unusable then how is it that I have used it to make startlingly accurate predictions on this thread (in case anyone is actually paying attention).
Agip - a true statement would be that the data is so flawed that YOU cannot make any sense of it. That is an entirely different statement than saying that nobody can make sense of it, (i.e., it is meaningless)
jesseriley wrote:
US Intelligence estimates are 42,000 actual dead in Wuhan.
Fake data will continue to be a problem, P & agip.
Fake data from China, Russia, N Korea… and imperfect data from elsewhere do not change the fact that we have more than enough data to see what is going on at a macro level. I understand that you do not understand mathematics and so are unable to understand this. But your ignorance does not change reality.
jesseriley wrote:
Says the guy posting long lists of fake numbers? About bright spots in trump’s response to the pandemic?
Agip is not a Trumpette. He is also an honest poster – the very best on LRC
#FireFauci wrote:
The prediction models are using bad data and worst case scenario assumptions.
The real totals will much less than the average flu season.
#FireFauci
You are simply wrong. The 12 month total for Covid-19 will certainly be much worse than a typical flu season. If you don’t understand this by now then you simply don’t understand numbers. Either that or you have not been paying attention.
Still, things are improving thanks to some very good efforts at the state level.
P wrote:
Note 2: The real news (what everybody should be focusing on) is in the steady decline in the growth rate for reported cases. Everything is a lagging indicator in this but the case numbers are a less lagging indicator than the death numbers. The pattern for the US looks a great deal like that seen elsewhere. Look for the percentage growth in deaths to start to drop within a week and possibly within the next few days.
This ^ was posted on April 1. So, let's look at the average compound growth rate in US deaths up to the point of my statement of fact above and since then.
Average compound growth rate in deaths in US
5 days prior to my "prediction": 26%
5 days since my "prediction": 16%
Wanna see another "prediction"? That number will continue to decline from here. That is a mathematical certainty. Odd that one can post mathematical certainties with data that is meaningless, no?
P wrote:
agip wrote:
P seriously...the testing data is so flawed as to be meaningless. Between huge numbers of false negatives, 7 day waits for results, hundreds of thousands of tests in a backlog....
Not sure why you won't address this.
Even the death data I use is flawed...turns out France has only been counting deaths in hospital, so today they said another 885 people died in retirement homes over the past few weeks, and just added the new deaths to 4/2.
Sorry, agip, I love you dude, but you are wrong again. The data available is not only adequate to do the job, it is spectacular. Better than any serious modeler could ever hope for.
France has updated how they count deaths? Russian data is garbage? ... That is all noise. To state that "the testing data is so flawed as to be meaningless." is to show a level of ignorance that is almost hard to believe.
If the testing data is meaningless, how is it that we see the exact same pattern emerge in country after country both before SIP orders are put in place and afterwards? Think about it - that makes absolutey zero sense. And if it is all so unusable then how is it that I have used it to make startlingly accurate predictions on this thread (in case anyone is actually paying attention).
Agip - a true statement would be that the data is so flawed that YOU cannot make any sense of it. That is an entirely different statement than saying that nobody can make sense of it, (i.e., it is meaningless)
heh.
I hear you.
The data you are looking at does correlate with the death data I am looking at, so there's at least correlation. And you did see the improvements before they were in the death data. I think you did anyway.
I still do worry about taking testing data too seriously. Nate Silver has been worrying about testing data too. but your argument might be that we're not looking for precise to the 10th decimal point info...we are looking for trends, which you have identified.
agip wrote:
agip wrote:
Boris.
"Mr Johnson has asked Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab to deputise "where necessary", the spokesman added."
Yes, I know you were talking about Boris. But with the disarray and ineptitude coming out of Washington, it could just as easily apply to Trump.
P wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
So you think you can make accurate predictions on partial data? Dr Birx is considerably more humble than you are. But we know that already.
https://amp-cnn-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/02/politics/birx-task-force-coronavirus-testing/index.html?amp_js_v=a2&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15858875116072&_ct=1585887518062&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2020%2F04%2F02%2Fpolitics%2Fbirx-task-force-coronavirus-testing%2Findex.htmlI am not making predictions. I am stating mathematical certainties. I assume that you can see that by now.
And as far as humility goes – humility is nice, but the truth is what matters. I am providing everyone here with truth at a time when misleading crap is all around. If you value truth, pay attention. If you enjoy misleading crap, that is on you.
A disease is not a "mathematical certainty" - particularly when the data is limited. You can only make an educated guess as to what the trends suggest. It would help if you are an epidemiologist - that would make it an educated guess. Your view of the "truth" is not very different from the White House "social scientist" correcting a world-leading epidemiologist on the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine, because he can "read the figures". Reading numbers doesn't make you an expert on a disease that health experts are still trying to understand.
P wrote:
Have to ask............,,, wrote:
I won't comment on how useful or useless the poster analysis is here because as I have maintained from the beginning there hasn't been and still isn't enough information available (doesn't mean someone's guess isn't correct though) but I'll say this, I find it entertaining that P and agip seem to have flipped positions here.
For weeks agip was positive guy and P had end of the world predictions, now both of their narratives have flipped.
I could be wrong, and am often, but it seems to me that eventually we all have to be exposed to this so beyond the positive aspect of flattening the curve in the short term, at some point, we all are going to have to get back to normal life and ultimately be exposed to this virus.
Sorry, but you are simply wrong about there being not enough information to go on. In fact, there is an abundance of information. I would go further to say that there is an overabundance of information and that much of it is worthless and/or misleading. Unfortunately many, including many on this thread, have difficulty focusing on the information that matters. Even when told repeatedly what to focus on they still get distracted by the trees (and flowers and mushrooms and rotting logs…) and fail to see the forest which is staring us all right in the face.
And as far as narratives getting flipped – My narrative is correct, has been correct and will continue to be correct. The only reason that it may appear flipped is that the facts on the ground have changed. And changed quite dramatically.
I told you, when there were only a relative handful of cases out there, that this thing was going to hit us like a tsunami. That it was going to effectively shut this country down. I was right.
And now I am telling you, doom and gloom headlines notwithstanding, that we are clearly winning the war on COVID-19. And it isn’t close. At some point you will realize that I am right about that too. I am not sure exactly when you will recognize you will, sooner or later.
P -
I'm sorry I wasn't clear enough... I readily admit that I don't know where this is going. Therefore I wouldn't presume to say someone is wrong. That's honestly the truth. I mostly ask questions because something doesn't seem right to me... doesn't mean it's wrong at all.
The other thing I wasn't clear on was when I said you flipped positions with agip. I didn't mean to say it that way... what i was saying is you both were analyzing the data with your preferred methodology... at the beginning your analysis was doom and gloom because that's what your model was showing... agip was looking for positives and was finding them with his technique... then on the same day he says it's going to be very bad in the US or something like that your prediction model indicated we might have turned a corner.... so I guess, what I meant each of your predictive models had flipped directions.. at least at that time when I wrote that