Down goes the Dow

Not a Canadian wrote:

agip wrote:

the more likely issue is that the money comes from oligarchs who don't want it known that they are hiding money overseas so they find shills to do the transaction.

I mean, schoolteachers buying $3 million homes????

I thought that's what they use shell companies for...maybe only in the US?

dunno

Tim Cook can't save us....Janet Yellin save us now....please!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Tim Cook can't save us....Janet Yellin save us now....please!

meh - much of apple's problem is currency related - they say Net income woulda been 8% higher but for the strong dollar.

stock owners understand that currency swings are ephemeral and will swing back the other way at some point, adding to earnings.

This is my area from the Los Angeles Times today:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-home-prices-case-shiller-20160126-story.html

.

This goes along with auto sales at a record high in 2015, so there are a lot of things that are not collapsing.

coach d,

Home prices jumping up and auto sales at record highs gives you confidence. It seems like you many others have forgotten the lessons of 2007.

Igy

And I am sure Apples IPhone sales were affected by the drop in oil.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

And I am sure Apples IPhone sales were affected by the drop in oil.

Igy

The Apple numbers are interesting.

Basically, iPad and Mac sales declining, iPod pretty much non-existant. iPhone sales GROWTH at lowest level since the initial iPhone.

Worth noticing they have a 40% profit margin overall (likely much higher, maybe 50% for iPhone).

They could easily accelerate growth of iPhone by lowering price by $200 per device.

Apple Guy,

Profit margin is better because component prices have been falling. If it wasn't for the profit margin improvement Apple may have missed on the EPS. That should tell you something about demand.

Igy

Apple Guy wrote:

The Apple numbers are interesting.

Basically, iPad and Mac sales declining, iPod pretty much non-existant. iPhone sales GROWTH at lowest level since the initial iPhone.

Worth noticing they have a 40% profit margin overall (likely much higher, maybe 50% for iPhone).

They could easily accelerate growth of iPhone by lowering price by $200 per device.

Interesting. Average sales price of iPhones is $691 - pretty impressive - and this number includes sales to partners like ATT, Verizon etc

Apple Guy,

If the economy declines the prices will come down.

Igy

Apple Guy wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

And I am sure Apples IPhone sales were affected by the drop in oil.

Igy

The Apple numbers are interesting.

Basically, iPad and Mac sales declining, iPod pretty much non-existant. iPhone sales GROWTH at lowest level since the initial iPhone.

Worth noticing they have a 40% profit margin overall (likely much higher, maybe 50% for iPhone).

They could easily accelerate growth of iPhone by lowering price by $200 per device.

apple strategy has never been to lower prices - that would probably crush the stock

the usual apple pattern is to come oyt with a new iphone at a high price and drop the price of the older ones.

but clearly apple hasn't had much innovation for years...harder and harder to wow people into paying 2x what other phones cost.

that's why the stock has always had a low PE.

re: Hongcouver

I lived there for many years, and did a law degree there. RE is absurd there, all (ALL) Chinese, and a few older British ex-pat families.

My father-in-law just bought a beachfront condo, for millions. Idiot. He has lived there for 30 years while doing business there, China, and Mexico, and buys now? At the peak? Ridiculous. He can't even rent it out when he's gone (which is most of the time) according to the condo bylaws. Since he bought (4 months ago), the CAD has dropped precipitously. He is a guy who always knows better, and has wasted money like a pro athlete. I'm absolutely certain that we will end up supporting him when he burns through all he has.

It is incredible how quickly some people can burn through money.

So much RE there is vacant. Yes teenagers live in $3M homes. It's been going on for a long time. I was going to buy a condo or two before I left, but at that time, the issue was (and still is), mold. They put up 6-story stick condos in the rain, then a few years later they have to tear off all the crap stucco sheathing and roof, do mold abatement on what's left, and try to seal the whole thing back up. Which will only last so long. So I didn't. I know people who did, and it has been a huge headache.

Older houses were a better deal, but they had their problems. Already when I left, 32' lots were selling for $500k, with a small house, 800-1M, in the area in which I lived. Too rich for my blood. Old guy, friend of mine, was a developer who did houses one at a time, good quality. He showed me some of the shxt that was out there, by other guys. Ouch. But the Chinese don't care, AT ALL.

Older concrete condos have all had their problems as well, with leakage. I know somebody who just got a $85k assessment on their condo, for repairs. Poured concrete.

I could go on forever, but I won't. Hongcouver--nice place to visit, but I wouldn't want to live there, although I do stand to inherit (in maybe 20 years, if I live that long) a beachfront condo that I can't rent out, that I will have to pay tax on. By then it may well be worth...nothing. TONS of rain, lots of smog, and way too many people--wait for a sunny day, and they all emerge from hiding, and you realize just how many there are. The only peace I had there was up in the mountains, or sailing way out in the inlet or the strait, well away from land.

Maserati,

I have a similar story in my family. My brother and nephew started to buy rental property at the end of last year. I think their timing is horrible. On top of that, it is in Southern California. I am sure they think it is reasonable risk. I have my concerns.

Igy

Igy, a friend of mine from HS in Toronto dropped out after grade 12 (we had grade 13 back then), got a crap job in a hardware store, borrowed some family starter money, and bought RE. It used to be cheap in certain areas but with high interest rates, then got expensive in certain areas with Chinese showing up at your door with a briefcase full of cash (literally). If you could get renters to pay your mortgage, you were OK.

Never went to college, lived at home in his room for YEARS, just kept adding to his RE portfolio.

Today, 30 years later, he is worth north of CAD 60M, on paper at least.

In TO, rents are not what property values are. I told him to cash out, already at the end of last year. He just might do it, and good for him if he does.

DJIA continues in the range I predicted.

Wow time goes fast, we are already closing in on the end of the first month of 2016

Maserati,

I have had several clients do well in real estate. The general theme has been buying low, selling at the high, reallocating. Similar to my view of what one should do with more liquid assets like stocks and bonds.

Igy

Maserati wrote:re: Hongcouver

I lived there for many years, and did a law degree there. RE is absurd there, all (ALL) Chinese, and a few older British ex-pat families.

ALL Chinese and a few older British ex-pat familes? OK now you're making $hit up. Yes, Vancouver is expensive, the most expensive RE market in Canada. But you are exaggerating grossly. I know quite a few people who own homes in Vancouver, none of whom are Chinese OR British ex-pats.

And to me, there is no better place on earth to walk to work in the morning on a sunny day in downtown Vancouver. Morning sunshine in that city puts a smile on my face that lasts all day.

I'm talking about the places you would actually want to live, not PoCo. British Properties, Point Grey, SW Marine Dr, West Van, etc.

Yes, of course there are other people there, no shxt Sherlock. I lived there for many, many years, as well as on the island and up the valley.

And if you think there is no better place on earth, you need to travel more. To each his own, though.

Maybe you would like to buy an English Bay condo with an ocean view in 20 or 25 years? Heck, I will sell you a right of first refusal TODAY. What about it? You sound like a real player.

*****************************************

Thank God we have had this snowmageddon on the east coast, it will give the morons the perfect reason for decreased economic indicators in January, maybe even in 2016 Q1. That's even more bull than linking everything to oil.