agip wrote:
04/05 data
It's Sunday so all this should be taken with a punch of salt and a raised eyebrow.
But massive improvement yesterday.
I do not trust the Sunday data. It is just too far of an outlier from the consistent trends.
The Saturday data actually appears to be in line.
It is for sure looking, well, not better, but worse more slowly.
moderates suck wrote:
agip wrote:
04/05 data
It's Sunday so all this should be taken with a punch of salt and a raised eyebrow.
But massive improvement yesterday.
I do not trust the Sunday data. It is just too far of an outlier from the consistent trends.
The Saturday data actually appears to be in line.
It is for sure looking, well, not better, but worse more slowly.
I do worry a lot about a second bump as the virus spreads, just as there was a great leveling out of the trends once China, South Korea, Japan started plateauing.
If Indonesia, the Philipines, etc. start to accelerate, those trends will start rapidly going up again.
I actually really, really hope warm weather does slow this thing way down. That would be terrific news. The evidence for that is not very compelling, but it may be our best hope.
moderates suck wrote:
moderates suck wrote:
I do not trust the Sunday data. It is just too far of an outlier from the consistent trends.
The Saturday data actually appears to be in line.
It is for sure looking, well, not better, but worse more slowly.
I do worry a lot about a second bump as the virus spreads, just as there was a great leveling out of the trends once China, South Korea, Japan started plateauing.
If Indonesia, the Philipines, etc. start to accelerate, those trends will start rapidly going up again.
I actually really, really hope warm weather does slow this thing way down. That would be terrific news. The evidence for that is not very compelling, but it may be our best hope.
So many mysteries about this disease. Must be both fascinating and frustrating to medical professionals trying to give good advice.
Why does it affect men more than women?
Why does it have no affect on so many people?
Why is it so serious for just a fraction...while barely a problem for most?
Why does the downslide happen so fast?
Why does it not affect children but kills older people?
Then all the standard stuff...heat, humidity, seasonal stuff.
Although I've been reading about the seasonal side of viruses...apparently it's not settled science why some viruses are seasonal, in cycles. People have opinions but it's not settled.
Runningart2004 wrote:
You can make the right call and still be wrong. Rigged is right. There are procedures in place if he had concerns. I would also guess this wasnt the first time he's conducted himself outside of proper procedures.
Here's an example:
Army asked DOD if they could suspend basic training, DOD said no. What if the post commander just decided for himself to suspend basic training. Would he be right? Such action would surely limit the spread.
Alan
So, I haven't really read that much about this situation on the ship. If the commander? (I do not know ranks well) first went and wrote this letter, then I surely think that he was in the wrong.
Having worked in a lot of bureaucratic institutions, my guess (but it is only that) is that he had already followed the proper chain or reporting and command and got fucky all as a response and that is why he leaped the chain.
But I don't know.
moderates suck wrote:
L L wrote:
This has all kinds of issues.
Among them a violation of the First Amendment.
Preventing Fauci from answering a question may be stupid (what else do we expect) but it isn't a first amendment violation.
It certainly is a violation of the spirit of the amendment, which states that Congress can't make a law prohibiting freedom of speech and the of the press.
He's not Congress making a law, but he's the president effectively acting as the law.
The president stepped in and prohibited free speech and free press in one moment.
L L wrote:
moderates suck wrote:
Preventing Fauci from answering a question may be stupid (what else do we expect) but it isn't a first amendment violation.
It certainly is a violation of the spirit of the amendment, which states that Congress can't make a law prohibiting freedom of speech and the of the press.
He's not Congress making a law, but he's the president effectively acting as the law.
The president stepped in and prohibited free speech and free press in one moment.
-1
Trump telling an executive branch employee to shut up is not a 1A violation.
agip wrote:
Runningart2004 wrote:
You can make the right call and still be wrong. Rigged is right. There are procedures in place if he had concerns. I would also guess this wasnt the first time he's conducted himself outside of proper procedures.
Here's an example:
Army asked DOD if they could suspend basic training, DOD said no. What if the post commander just decided for himself to suspend basic training. Would he be right? Such action would surely limit the spread.
Alan
To me the most fascinating part of the problem is that the captain no doubt knew he was going to be punished but did it anyway. He knew that it was the 'wrong' thing to do by the rules, but the 'right' thing to do as an officer responsible for the lives of everyone on that ship. Such a classic military leadership problem. I think there's little doubt Crozier will be remembered as a hero who fell on his sword to save his crew.
I suspect this might be a case study at the academies for a long time.
Also, there seems to be some conflict between civilians in control of the Navy and Naval officers. Seems that many Naval officers feel Crozier should have been reprimanded but not this much.
A "fascinating...problem", and a "case study at the academies"? You talk as though the captain is a subject on a Petri dish.
Austria’s solution is to track everyone electronically after re-opening. It wouldn’t work here, but of course nothing will work here: we’ve already fundamentally lost confidence in trump.
agip wrote:
So many mysteries about this disease. Must be both fascinating and frustrating to medical professionals trying to give good advice.
Why does it affect men more than women?
Why does it have no affect on so many people?
Why is it so serious for just a fraction...while barely a problem for most?
Why does the downslide happen so fast?
Why does it not affect children but kills older people?
Then all the standard stuff...heat, humidity, seasonal stuff.
Although I've been reading about the seasonal side of viruses...apparently it's not settled science why some viruses are seasonal, in cycles. People have opinions but it's not settled.
Yes. And even some of these questions are not at all settled.
In my state, among confirmed cases, they are 47% men and 51% women (with the 2% not reported). The site doesn't have a breakdown of deaths by gender, just cases, so I don't know if it is just deaths that are skewed or if the early result of more cases in men was an anomaly or related to local conditions? I can find news reports that reference both more cases among men and more deaths among men.
Such is the nature of real time reporting. Many of these questions will not be answered for many years. And yet the answers have great practical import.
Fat hurts wrote:
L L wrote:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/06/coronavirus-fauci-trumpdrugs/This has all kinds of issues.
Among them a violation of the First Amendment.
A reporter asked the doctor a question to confirm or deny Trump's thoughts on a drug he is promoting (probably has stock in it) and Trump steps in to shut the question down and prevent the doctor from answering it.
Is this America?
Trump has suggested people take this drug even if before they have symptoms, as a preventative measure for nurses and such.
Tiny even said he might take it himself. And he's just dumb enough to do it.
Clearly Navarro is pushing this to appease Trump's "hunch". I know two people who tried to treat CV with this malaria drug and they stopped after a few days because they felt worse... nobody knows if it works and there is no strong scientific backing for yet. Also this drug can have severe side effects. It is dumb to continue pushing it as some solution, just call it what it is - throwing anything at the wall to see if sticks. I think it should continue being discussed but the admin is starting to put all its eggs in one basket. Fauci will be gone soon if he continues to do the right thing.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1247145165640343552agip wrote:
moderates suck wrote:
I do worry a lot about a second bump as the virus spreads, just as there was a great leveling out of the trends once China, South Korea, Japan started plateauing.
If Indonesia, the Philipines, etc. start to accelerate, those trends will start rapidly going up again.
I actually really, really hope warm weather does slow this thing way down. That would be terrific news. The evidence for that is not very compelling, but it may be our best hope.
So many mysteries about this disease. Must be both fascinating and frustrating to medical professionals trying to give good advice.
Why does it affect men more than women?
Why does it have no affect on so many people?
Why is it so serious for just a fraction...while barely a problem for most?
Why does the downslide happen so fast?
Why does it not affect children but kills older people?
Then all the standard stuff...heat, humidity, seasonal stuff.
Although I've been reading about the seasonal side of viruses...apparently it's not settled science why some viruses are seasonal, in cycles. People have opinions but it's not settled.
I'll be really interested in your opinion once you've contracted the disease - assuming, of course, that you hopefully come out the other side.
Armstronglivs wrote:
agip wrote:
To me the most fascinating part of the problem is that the captain no doubt knew he was going to be punished but did it anyway. He knew that it was the 'wrong' thing to do by the rules, but the 'right' thing to do as an officer responsible for the lives of everyone on that ship. Such a classic military leadership problem. I think there's little doubt Crozier will be remembered as a hero who fell on his sword to save his crew.
I suspect this might be a case study at the academies for a long time.
Also, there seems to be some conflict between civilians in control of the Navy and Naval officers. Seems that many Naval officers feel Crozier should have been reprimanded but not this much.
A "fascinating...problem", and a "case study at the academies"? You talk as though the captain is a subject on a Petri dish.
I hear you. But case studies are a key way leaders learn. I did an MBA and the case studies were probably the most useful way to put yourself in a situation and have to come to the best real world solution. You can't just say 'save the most lives possible' and walk away, like a pundit. You have to work in the real world.
There's a thing called the War College where they study things like this. And I'm not sure but probably at the academies they teach how officers have made decisions with limited information.
Is your view that future officers should not be taught what past officers have done?
Armstronglivs wrote:
agip wrote:
So many mysteries about this disease. Must be both fascinating and frustrating to medical professionals trying to give good advice.
Why does it affect men more than women?
Why does it have no affect on so many people?
Why is it so serious for just a fraction...while barely a problem for most?
Why does the downslide happen so fast?
Why does it not affect children but kills older people?
Then all the standard stuff...heat, humidity, seasonal stuff.
Although I've been reading about the seasonal side of viruses...apparently it's not settled science why some viruses are seasonal, in cycles. People have opinions but it's not settled.
I'll be really interested in your opinion once you've contracted the disease - assuming, of course, that you hopefully come out the other side.
you are a weird dude.
Your view is that no curiosity or investigation should be done?
I don't get you at all, other than you have some urge to shoot missiles at me.
Ok man, fire away.
The tight grip trump's stupidity has on the administration is unreal. They are fearing for their lives if they are seen as not praising the president's awesome ideas. These people are anti-science and that is straight up scary. Who to trust on CV - Trump, Kushner, Navarro, Rudy and Hannity, or Fauci and the scientists and doctors?
Trollminator wrote:
The tight grip trump's stupidity has on the administration is unreal. They are fearing for their lives if they are seen as not praising the president's awesome ideas. These people are anti-science and that is straight up scary. Who to trust on CV - Trump, Kushner, Navarro, Rudy and Hannity, or Fauci and the scientists and doctors?
Kushner, obvi.
Trollminator wrote:
The tight grip trump's stupidity has on the administration is unreal. They are fearing for their lives if they are seen as not praising the president's awesome ideas. These people are anti-science and that is straight up scary. Who to trust on CV - Trump, Kushner, Navarro, Rudy and Hannity, or Fauci and the scientists and doctors?
Oh and add Pence the HIV denier to the list of experts.
agip wrote:
-1
Trump telling an executive branch employee to shut up is not a 1A violation.
I corrected it to violating the "spirit" of the amendment.
The president jumping in on that was very unAmerican.
Dr Fauci had answered the question before in a different setting, but this time he was asked his medical opinion while standing next to the president.
His opinion is contrary to what Trump just said on that stage.
Trump did not want the visual of being contradicted by a respected medical professional standing right next to him in front of the media.
This is what a dictator would do.
Or a child who has power.
L L wrote:
agip wrote:
-1
Trump telling an executive branch employee to shut up is not a 1A violation.
I corrected it to violating the "spirit" of the amendment.
The president jumping in on that was very unAmerican.
Dr Fauci had answered the question before in a different setting, but this time he was asked his medical opinion while standing next to the president.
His opinion is contrary to what Trump just said on that stage.
Trump did not want the visual of being contradicted by a respected medical professional standing right next to him in front of the media.
This is what a dictator would do.
Or a child who has power.
ok
The thing about Trump is that he is always selling.
The thing he is very, very, very good at is selling.
And he knows that when he is selling something and has a junior employee along on the sales call...and the junior employee starts muddying the sales pitch...you shut up the junior guy and get the customer back to looking at the senior guy.
That is how trump does everything...he's selling, his third of the nation is buying, and anyone who gets in the way of his sales pitch is doomed.
While Trump is selling his BS, the media is trying to sell the truth. Some media isn't.
If you allow people to speak through the media, the public can make their own determination of what to believe.
The question was related to the health of the public and Trump shut it down.
I am using this forum to point that out.
agip wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
I'll be really interested in your opinion once you've contracted the disease - assuming, of course, that you hopefully come out the other side.
you are a weird dude.
Your view is that no curiosity or investigation should be done?
I don't get you at all, other than you have some urge to shoot missiles at me.
Ok man, fire away.
Depends what you think is weird. What I find weird is someone talking about a crisis like this - which is destroying lives - as though it is something that merely invites intellectual curiosity. Detachment without empathy. The human dimension is completely absent.