Down goes the Dow

Day ain't over.

agip,

We can lump him in with Huffman in being wrong.

Igy

everybody has turned to the task of modeling the recovery

Quant,

Where is the recovery do tell me?

Igy

you kill me ghost

at least you understand that it's not a question of if, but when

gotta go I actually have a job

Quant,

Model the declining market internals would be a better bet.

Igy

It is not just oil:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/china-s-stocks-fall-amid-concern-capital-outflows-may-accelerate

Igy

Another China story written by a Wall Street Journal reporter, via the evil and wrong David Stockman Website.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/sinking-rmb-reflects-deeper-trouble-in-the-red-ponzi-its-choking-on-debt-and-zombie-factories-apartments-infrastructure-and-other-malinvestments/

Igy

the US seems to be decoupling a bit from China - it had a terrible day and we're up solid. Maybe it's a one day thing but maybe it's meaningful.

My understanding is that the chinese stock exchange is like the nasdaq pink sheets - just nutso momentum traders. not sure how much it should be used as a guide to the chinese economy.

Meanwhile, big earnings day and week - these numbers will be interesting. Although the 1Q earnings will be more important to see if the earnings recession is ending.

agip wrote:

the US seems to be decoupling a bit from China - it had a terrible day and we're up solid.

Meanwhile, big earnings day

Yep. APPLE earnings call will give a good indication if Chinese have stopped buying US goods in the past quarter or not.

My assumption is that the last quarter was still ok but by now they have started to slow down with buying ... We'll see in an hour.

Janet Yellin save us, no, no Tim Cook save us......... please!

Speaking of mal-investments... what happens to the massive 'luxury' apartment/condo projects that are being, or have been recently completed around the country? How are they going to be filled, and how are the companies that built these complexes, going to move into the black in the time-frames set pre-project? Have we not done essentially the same thing that China has, but on a smaller scale? And btw, this will be my only post... the immature trolls are just that, immature.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Another China story written by a Wall Street Journal reporter, via the evil and wrong David Stockman Website.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/sinking-rmb-reflects-deeper-trouble-in-the-red-ponzi-its-choking-on-debt-and-zombie-factories-apartments-infrastructure-and-other-malinvestments/

Igy

Marty,

Here in Boise more than a dozen large apartment complexes that have been constructed since the financial crisis. Along with these project we have had three very large constructions projects in various stages of completion during that same period. My analysis is that when the constructions comes to a halt there will be an exodus of residents from those apartment building.

If nothing else it steals future demand.

Igy

my understanding is that people from all over the world are buying those high priced luxe apartments as a store of value. it's dollars, it's quality US real estate, and it bloody well isn't yuan, rubles and euros. So they have a built in buffer - hard times may drive money toward them. (this is true in NYC, seattle, vancouver, los angeles, Miami, etc, not Houston and KC obvi)

Martin Armstrong wrote:

Speaking of mal-investments... what happens to the massive 'luxury' apartment/condo projects that are being, or have been recently completed around the country? How are they going to be filled, and how are the companies that built these complexes, going to move into the black in the time-frames set pre-project?

Have we not done essentially the same thing that China has, but on a smaller scale?

And btw, this will be my only post... the immature trolls are just that, immature.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Another China story written by a Wall Street Journal reporter, via the evil and wrong David Stockman Website.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/sinking-rmb-reflects-deeper-trouble-in-the-red-ponzi-its-choking-on-debt-and-zombie-factories-apartments-infrastructure-and-other-malinvestments/

Igy

agip wrote:

my understanding is that people from all over the world are buying those high priced luxe apartments as a store of value. it's dollars, it's quality US real estate, and it bloody well isn't yuan, rubles and euros.

So they have a built in buffer - hard times may drive money toward them.

(this is true in NYC, seattle, vancouver, los angeles, Miami, etc, not Houston and KC obvi)

Vancouver would be CAD not US$, so I am pretty sure Y/Y the Return on Investment would be negative. At least for a US buyer - for a Chinese buyer, maybe there still is a bit left, but not much, considering how much the CAD has lost over the last year.

Not a Canadian wrote:

agip wrote:

my understanding is that people from all over the world are buying those high priced luxe apartments as a store of value. it's dollars, it's quality US real estate, and it bloody well isn't yuan, rubles and euros.

So they have a built in buffer - hard times may drive money toward them.

(this is true in NYC, seattle, vancouver, los angeles, Miami, etc, not Houston and KC obvi)

Vancouver would be CAD not US$, so I am pretty sure Y/Y the Return on Investment would be negative. At least for a US buyer - for a Chinese buyer, maybe there still is a bit left, but not much, considering how much the CAD has lost over the last year.

right, sorry

I always hear about Vancouver real estate being attractive to asian money.

In a recent six-month period about 70 per cent of all detached homes sold on Vancouver’s west side were purchased by Mainland China buyers, an academic case study shows.

Even more stunning, the study shows that of all self-declared occupations among owners — on homes worth an average $3.05 million — 36 per cent were housewives or students with little income.

And 18 per cent of the 172 homes purchased were not mortgaged by banks. That means roughly $100 million in questionable cash was poured into Vancouver’s west side from August 2014 to February 2015, much of it from China. Total value of all homes sold in the study period was $525 million.

agip wrote:

right, sorry

I always hear about Vancouver real estate being attractive to asian money.

I'm sure it is (or was for that matter).

Even more stunning, the study shows that of all self-declared occupations among owners — on homes worth an average $3.05 million — 36 per cent were housewives or students with little income.

Makes sense:

- wives: if you make millions, why would you want to live in China, unless you have biz there. So they send the wives and kids over to enjoy North American standard of living and education, while the hubby remains in China making money.

- students: not familiar with Canadian law but I'd imagine they buy themselves into residency/citizenship so they can take advantage of the Canadian University system...?

Not a Canadian wrote:

agip wrote:

right, sorry

I always hear about Vancouver real estate being attractive to asian money.

I'm sure it is (or was for that matter).

Even more stunning, the study shows that of all self-declared occupations among owners — on homes worth an average $3.05 million — 36 per cent were housewives or students with little income.

Makes sense:

- wives: if you make millions, why would you want to live in China, unless you have biz there. So they send the wives and kids over to enjoy North American standard of living and education, while the hubby remains in China making money.

- students: not familiar with Canadian law but I'd imagine they buy themselves into residency/citizenship so they can take advantage of the Canadian University system...?

well that's the optimistic view

the more likely issue is that the money comes from oligarchs who don't want it known that they are hiding money overseas so they find shills to do the transaction.

I mean, schoolteachers buying $3 million homes????

agip wrote:

the more likely issue is that the money comes from oligarchs who don't want it known that they are hiding money overseas so they find shills to do the transaction.

I mean, schoolteachers buying $3 million homes????

I thought that's what they use shell companies for...maybe only in the US?