I remember Reagan struggled to deal with AIDS, went years without even saying the word. Politically he was fortunate that he could just demonize the victims.
Trump is comfortable milking the virus as a publicity machine, there’s no real strategy to stop it.
They could hire them as nurses lol.
They always had lots of Personal Protective Equipment! Wrong kind?
NY Gov Cuomo is into whips & chains.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUa3qE6XgAANFGN?format=jpg&name=medium
mirrors wrote:
P wrote:
I will say one thing - I have always said the Warm Weather Miracle and the Agip Hypothesis are the two wild cards in this whole thing (aside from human actions/inventions).
You need to understand that viruses do not die with warm weather. Your body and becomes immune, if it has time, when it developed antibodies against a specific virus. The antibodies stay with you after the virus dies.
The warm weather miracle is possible. We don't actually know why there is a flu season but we know it exists. That is, flu spreads more rapidly in colder weather.
One hypothesis to explain flu season is that a flu virus dies faster when exposed to warm, humid air. That slows the spread of the disease, making it harder to catch and pass along.
We don't know enough about this novel coronavirus to say if it might behave in the same way as the common flu, but it is possible. So far, I haven't heard about any signs of a warm weather miracle, but it's not irrational to hold out hope at this point.
3/30 was a mostly average day in terms of daily deaths. Mostly matching 3 or 4 week long trends.
But it did not disturb the short term trend of improvement.
The good news is Italy, the bad news is the USA.
3 day average of new daily deaths:
World: +5% (v 15% longer term trend)
World ex-USA: +3% (vs 12% longer term trend)
USA: +19% (34% longer term trend)
So that's the problem...the Italy France Spain cluster is barely growing now but fast growth in the US is going to fill that gap if trends continue.
Italy continues to brighten, with its 3 day average of daily deaths now *negative* at -4%.
And now 13 days in a band in new cases. Actually Italy's 3/30 data might be a break *below* that band. Great news.
Spain is gettng worse much less quickly. - recent days have been far, far better than what we have seen. They seem to be a few days behind Italy. 3 day growth:+6%, longer term +13%. France has messy data that are not as good. They seem behind Spain on the curve.
The broadest measure I use - five day change in deaths - continues to moderate nicely.
The top number is the oldest, the bottom number is yesterday compared to 5 days ago. I like this trend. But the US will soon start driving the numbers up unless things get better here very quickly.
% increases:
96%
104%
153%
93%
127%
117%
167%
95%
59%
100%
92%
120%
76%
72%
100%
88%
31%
55%
I’m certainly hoping for a warm-weather miracle:
that trump will wise up.
jesseriley wrote:
I’m certainly hoping for a warm-weather miracle:
that trump will wise up.
Amen to that.
Trump's abysmal handling of the crisis will be directly responsible for tens of thousands of excess American deaths. I hate to be that blunt, but it's painfully obvious.
He's doing a little better now, but the time when good leadership could have made a big difference has largely passed.
agip wrote:
So that's the problem...the Italy France Spain cluster is barely growing now but fast growth in the US is going to fill that gap if trends continue.
Why are you still doing this silly grouping thing? The UK has reported 400 deaths today. Switzerland, Belgium and the Netherlands have higher case rates and higher death rates than France.
Please just stop.
agip, this isn't mean to call you out but I am curious. You removed Iran from your grouping last week because the data was suspiciously flat. Now that they have started reporting an increase in cases again, would it make sense to include them?
For what it's worth, I think that the government downplayed their cases until their numbers were surpassed by the western world.
CountChocula wrote:
agip, this isn't mean to call you out but I am curious. You removed Iran from your grouping last week because the data was suspiciously flat. Now that they have started reporting an increase in cases again, would it make sense to include them?
For what it's worth, I think that the government downplayed their cases until their numbers were surpassed by the western world.
Don't question Agip's data decisions or he will call you names and curse at you.
Agip’s groupings are random & prejudicial, but often his agenda is to support the status quo, which involves some extreme contortions of the data. Let’s face it, the status quo is in deep trouble.
CountChocula wrote:
agip, this isn't mean to call you out but I am curious. You removed Iran from your grouping last week because the data was suspiciously flat. Now that they have started reporting an increase in cases again, would it make sense to include them?
For what it's worth, I think that the government downplayed their cases until their numbers were surpassed by the western world.
At the beginning of the plague, Iran was one of two major problems (with Italy)...now it's just another nation. 100-150 deaths per day isn't a standout anymore, so it's not worth focusing on.
Plus I don't trust its data.
Just to be clear, Iran is counted in the world data I use...I just dont' consider it in isolation anymore, or in a subgroup.
mirrors wrote:
P wrote:
I will say one thing - I have always said the Warm Weather Miracle and the Agip Hypothesis are the two wild cards in this whole thing (aside from human actions/inventions).
You need to understand that viruses do not die with warm weather. Your body and becomes immune, if it has time, when it developed antibodies against a specific virus. The antibodies stay with you after the virus dies.
With COV several things can happen.
One is new strains come along next season (COVID-20) and you can get sick again—this is how influenza works; get a flu shot each season that is updated to deal with new virus strains.
This oddity is probably related to the human body having a hard time developing antibodies. People are being released as cured when they can still have a relapse. No one knows how long it actually takes to develop antibodies against COV-19.
Basically, a cure needs to be developed and tested, and that usually requires an entire year. Some drug companies are working hard to try to start clinical testing this September, which, unfortunately, won't make a COV-shot available for next flu season (assuming COV is a cool/cold weather virus, but this not known yet).
1) Everybody knows that humans develop resistance after a bout with a virus. Well, maybe not Sally, but everybody else.
2) Some viruses do in fact die off or at least have a dramatically reduced ability to infect new victims. Everybody knows this too (although your post suggests that you do not - perhaps I am misreading your post).
3) Everybody knows that new strains come along.
4) Regarding "Two is what appears to be an oddity with COV. You can get sick to the same virus again." - Dr. Fauci believes this to be false. I am in agreement with Dr. Fauci.
5) "Basically, a cure needs to be developed and tested". We are all hoping for this.
Let’s not forget it started in China, with plenty of problems then & now in reporting. Then Italy was the “outlier”, ha ha. Italy is connected to, I don’t know, everywhere. Subsequently it has spread through many, many nations who are impossible (yes, impossible) to generalize in their strategy; politics; culture; reporting methods; and wealth/preparedness.
Then, consider that the virus spread east from China to USA simultaneously. Again, impossible to generalize even at what point of a mythical curve we are on, since within our borders we contain all he same problems mentioned above. As many have said, USA is like Europe, only bigger.
Then you have to statistically analyze trump, not just impossible, but unprecedented.
Then, as I keep saying, there is the widespread difficulty of fake data.
So you have a bias of arrogance, for instance, just in trying to do the impossible.
I think you will like me better, agip, when I stick to one-liners.
Moscow Mitch puts the blame for the slow response to the virus squarely on impeachment!
Funny, I saw it on ‘pubs: they failed in their oath to the Constitution, and now trump has no accountability. Disaster.
Smorbun wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Jeff - I think it is a great idea to shut down everything. I really do. But we are making this much more than it is.
You are still here? You realize that everyone here knows you are an idiot, right? No one here respects any opinion of yours. Why do you continue to post?
My mom forces me to post. She will scold me if I fail to deliver.
I know the feeling. My mom practically grew up in bomb shelters underneath Vienna in World War 2.
The last thing we need is another hitler.
The dumbing down of America, aided by Trump and Fox News. Not exclusively responsible by any means but they are just not helping.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/president-gave-us-much-hope-232747729.html
Fat hurts wrote:
jesseriley wrote:
I’m certainly hoping for a warm-weather miracle:
that trump will wise up.
Amen to that.
Trump's abysmal handling of the crisis will be directly responsible for tens of thousands of excess American deaths. I hate to be that blunt, but it's painfully obvious.
He's doing a little better now, but the time when good leadership could have made a big difference has largely passed.
He isn't doing better. The arguments by the health experts left him with nowhere to go. But the misleading and inaccurate statements, the rewriting of history, the boasts, the bluster, the blaming and the attacks on the media continue. He is incapable of leading. America will survive this crisis despite him, as leadership falls increasingly on state governors, but he will add to Americans' suffering and the toll of lives - as he has already.