Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

Btw our own Sally Vix!:

Did you check the spot prices on oil today? Don’t worry, I did it for you.

Canadian crude was being given away for $5 a barrel!!! Everyone’s got so much, they can’t even store it!

What does that mean for oil-money-dependent Mother Russia? Putin, I wouldn’t want to be him.

Ciro wrote:

Doctored footage trigged?

Nope.

Dementia Joe will NEVER be POTUS.

jesseriley wrote:

Hi jamin,

I’m sorry you couldn’t handle my humorous mockery of you yesterday.

When jamin posts here under his real name it is an oops. He forgot to change handles.

The provide a link from one that isn’t overtly far right wing.

Unrelated.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-suggests-us-treat-germany-134200761.html

These idiots were democrat donors. Trump hater decides to take fish tank cleaner because she has so much faith in what Trump says. She was very smart!

Right ?pole?

LOL!

Yeah, jamin adopted this warm, mature tone with seattle prattle. We were like, are you a cop?

A hospital executive infected with TDS (and former Cankles staffer) posted on her Facebook page that Trump supporters should be forced to "give up their ventilators" and die.

These people are nuts.

https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/local/roswell-park-vice-president-for-external-affairs-fired-over-anti-trump-facebook-posts/71-7c03302b-e908-4da7-a0b1-6568d7cff247

And that’s just ridiculous and wrong.

But then I’ve seen conservatives say similar and in some cases blame the virus on gays, how weird is that?

Sally Vix wrote:

Jeff - I think it is a great idea to shut down everything. I really do. But we are making this much more than it is.

You are still here? You realize that everyone here knows you are an idiot, right? No one here respects any opinion of yours. Why do you continue to post?

An uninformed bullsh!tter.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-trump-got-the-population-of-seoul-wrong-by-millions-2020-3

A disgusting accusation against those on the front lines. This from a man who hides his taxes and can no longer run a charity.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/no-evidence-trump-s-suggestion-masks-are-going-out-back-n1172251

You are an apologist. He didn't have a ban. He allowed everyone and their brother to come here from China. The article says there were enough loopholes to fly a 747 through. The Washington Times actually got this right. I don't actually care that he didn't have a ban, but I do have a problem with Trump and his idiot followers like you saying that he did, insinuating that he was somehow prescient. He's not. He's an idiot as are you. Congratulations.

Sally Vix wrote:

jesseriley wrote:

Trump attempts to prevent other nations from receiving Cuban doctors to assist with virus.

Everything you post, Jesse, is a slam on Trump. Just EVERYTHING you post. You have no objectivity. It is sad. You post 1000 posts a day and everyone one of them is critical of Trump. You know when you post 1000 posts critical of someone and none of the opposite side, it is a very clear sign you are a partisan hack and have no objectivity. Which is it Jesse? You are a partisan hack or you have no objectivity - or, alas, both??!

Trump is an idiot president, a horrible person, and he hasn't done anything during his presidency or before to be praised for. You don't have to be partisan to not like every single thing about Donald J. Trump. Just like how you never say anything that is correct. It's just a fact. Trump is an idiot, horrible person, and you are an idiot jerk who doesn't understand anything at all. Hard to believe, but you are even dumber than Trump is, as you are the stupidest person I have ever encountered. Congratulations!

Italy and the USA

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All case and death numbers below are for Italy only and are cumulative totals.

Where US stands on the "Italy Curve" is shown on a per capita basis.

///

Cumulative Cases (#), Daily growth (%):

Mar 7: 5,883, N/A

Mar 8: 7,375, 25.4

Mar 9: 9,172, 24.4

Mar 10: 10,149, 10.7

Mar 11: 12,462, 22.8 < - Italy institutes nation-wide lock down

Mar 12: 15,113, 21.3

Mar 13: 17,660, 16.9

Mar 14: 21,157, 19.8

Mar 15: 24,747, 17.0

Mar 16: 27,980, 13.1

Mar 17: 31,506, 12.6 < - US is here today (13 days behind Italy)

Mar 18: 35,713, 13.4

Mar 19: 41,035, 14.9

Mar 20: 47,021, 14.6

Mar 21: 53,578, 13.9

Mar 22: 59,138, 10.4

Mar 23: 63,927, 8.1

Mar 24: 69,176, 8.2

Mar 25: 74,386, 7.5

Mar 26: 80,589, 8.3

Mar 27: 86,498, 7.3

Mar 28: 92,472, 6.9

Mar 29: 97,689, 5.6

Mar 30: 101,739, 4.1

Cumulative Deaths (#), Daily growth (%):

Mar 7: 233, N/A

Mar 8: 366, 57.1

Mar 9: 463, 26.5

Mar 10: 631, 36.3 < - US is here today (20 days behind Italy)

Mar 11: 827, 31.1 < - Italy institutes nation-wide lock down

Mar 12: 1,016, 22.9

Mar 13: 1,266, 24.6

Mar 14: 1,441, 13.8

Mar 15: 1,809, 25.5

Mar 16: 2,158, 19.3

Mar 17: 2,503, 16.0

Mar 18: 2,978, 19.0

Mar 19: 3,405, 14.3

Mar 20: 4,032, 18.4

Mar 21: 4,825, 19.7

Mar 22: 5,476, 13.5

Mar 23: 6,077, 11.0

Mar 24: 6,820, 12.2

Mar 25: 7,503, 10.0

Mar 26: 8,215, 9.5

Mar 27: 9,134, 11.2

Mar 28: 10,023, 9.7

Mar 29: 10,779, 7.5

Mar 30: 11,591, 7.5

Fatality Rate (Cumulative deaths/cases)

Mar 7: 4.0%

Mar 8: 5.0%

Mar 9: 5.0%

Mar 10: 6.2%

Mar 11: 6.6%

Mar 12: 6.7%

Mar 13: 7.2%

Mar 14: 6.8%

Mar 15: 7.3%

Mar 16: 7.7%

Mar 17: 7.9%

Mar 18: 8.3%

Mar 19: 8.3%

Mar 20: 8.6%

Mar 21: 9.0%

Mar 22: 9.3%

Mar 23: 9.5%

Mar 24: 9.9%

Mar 25: 10.1%

Mar 26: 10.2%

Mar 27: 10.6%

Mar 28: 10.8%

Mar 29: 11.0%

Mar 30: 11.4%

///

Note 1: Results from Italy's lock down are stunning. Growth in cases from 20% all the way down to 4% today. Growth in deaths from well over 24% down to 7.5%. This is fantastic news!

Note 2: The slowdown in growth is so dramatic in Italy as well as much of the rest of the world that it hints of a warm weather salvation for us all. Certainly does not prove it yet but if anyone wants to get their hopes up now would be an excusable time.

Note 3: US is now only 13 days behind Italy on the # of cases per capita curve. On the "Italy Curve Calendar" the US is now 6 days past the point where Italy went to a nation-wide lock down.

Sally Vix wrote:

jesseriley wrote:

Biden has been well advised to spend some time revealing his vision & drawing some contrasts between himself & adolph, oops, donald I mean.

Biden said the cure was worse than the virus. Jesse - what does he mean by this? My 5-year old niece said that this doesn't make sense. She said, her name is Betty, that the phrase "the cure is worse than the pandemic" just doesnt' make sense.

Jesse - can you explain to my niece who is only 4 that the "cure" is worse than the virus?

Sadly, it isn't your niece who is 4.

Figures for the US show infection rates and death rates continue to go through the roof with health services increasingly struggling to cope. The US is on its way to at least 100,000 plus deaths.

"If anyone wants to get their hopes up this would be an excusable time." Maybe it's more like we are still trying to get off Omaha Beach.

jesseriley wrote:

Seriously, 100,000-200,000 deaths in USA is the number that even trump will admit to. Not definitive of course.

Perhaps P or agip might be slightly useful if they compare/contrast their own predictions, or even when they feel we may reach these numbers, since it’s a breakthrough that fat boy is no longer BS’ing about Easter or hoaxes here.

Reasonable Questions

I present here 4 scenarios.

First, the assumptions common for all scenarios:

1) There is no warm weather miracle about to save us all (see subsequent post)

2) The Agip Coefficient is 2 (2 actual infections for each reported infection)

3) No significant new treatment regimes are instituted that might substantially impact the fatality rate

4) Basically nothing new – just the results of a virus that is not changing very quickly and our own actions

///

Scenario 1) Do Absolutely Nothing. That is, remove all restrictions tomorrow and return instantly to 100% business as usual. Of course this will not happen. It does, however, provide useful information as to how many deaths we are preventing by these “shelter in place” orders.

Scenario 2) Bumble Along. That is, never quite lock things down, remove shelter in place orders prematurely (May 1), start them up again when it becomes too apparent that this was a mistake,…Basically take the approach that one might expect of our commander in chief if he was in charge.

Scenario 3) The Italy Curve. Basically get on the Italy Curve within the next week. Assume that we remove restrictions on movement intelligently and clamp down on outbreaks effectively. This scenario is tough but possible.

Scenario 4) Perfect Lock Down, followed by massive testing and micro-quarantines. Basically do the best that is possible with a serious government in place. Obviously we do not have a serious government in place so this will not happen but, like scenario 1), it is provided as a reference point

///

For each scenario I present a single point projection for US deaths in 2020 (for simplicity sake - recognizing that there is always a range of possible outcomes). I also provide a date for when the worst will come (in terms of deaths/day), the peak numbers for deaths/day and the deaths/day at year end.

///

Scenario 1) Do Nothing – Drop all efforts to slow down COVID-19

Total COVID-19 deaths in 2020: 3.0 million

Date of Peak deaths/day: Early to mid – May

Peak deaths/day: 150,000

Deaths/day at year end: 5 - 20

Scenario 2) Bumble Along – Let’s call this the Trump Approach

Total COVID-19 deaths in 2020: 1.4 million

Date of Peak deaths/day: Mid to late May

Peak deaths/day: 40,000 – 60,000

Deaths/day at year end: 5 - 20

Scenario 3) The Italy Curve

Total COVID-19 deaths in 2020: 100,000

Date of Peak deaths/day: Early to mid – April

Peak deaths/day: 1,000 – 1,500

Deaths/day at year end: 50 - 60

Scenario 4) Perfect Lock Down and Follow-up

Total COVID-19 deaths in 2020: 60,000

Date of Peak deaths/day: Mid – April

Peak deaths/day: 350 - 400

Deaths/day at year end: 120 – 140

///

One minor note that may be of interest to some: Virtually every scenario that one might come up with will show a peak no later than the end of May. It is mostly a question of how horrific that peak will be as opposed to how long we will be under siege.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Figures for the US show infection rates and death rates continue to go through the roof with health services increasingly struggling to cope. The US is on its way to at least 100,000 plus deaths.

"If anyone wants to get their hopes up this would be an excusable time." Maybe it's more like we are still trying to get off Omaha Beach.

I am the official Dr. Gloom here. But even as Dr. Gloom I must say that your post isn't quite right.

Take a look at the following figures for new cases per day as a percentage of cumulative cases to date. Note that exponential growth means that this figure would remain constant. Note further that this figure for most countries and the world as a whole has hovered around 20%. That is, for every 100 infections in total to date one would see 20 new infections the next day.

Here are the numbers for the last 4 days.

World (excluding China)

Mar 26: 16.2%

Mar 27: 13.8%

Mar 28: 13.1%

Mar 29: 10.4%

Mar 30: 9.9%

USA

Mar 26: 29.2%

Mar 27: 19.6%

Mar 28: 19.6%

Mar 29: 16.3%

Mar 30: 15.5%

Spain

Mar 26: 16.7%

Mar 27: 13.7%

Mar 28: 11.4%

Mar 29: 9.4%

Mar 30: 9.8%

Italy

Mar 26: 8.3%

Mar 27: 7.3%

Mar 28: 6.9%

Mar 29: 5.6%

Mar 30: 4.1%

These numbers are absolutely stunning.

Some possibilities:

1) There is a grand conspiracy to suddenly under-report new cases (and day by day under-report by an ever greater amount).

2) Everyone everywhere is simply exhausted and/or has run out of test kits and so fewer cases are being reported by the sheer exhaustion of the system.

3) The warm weather miracle is turning out to be true. Warm weather in the northern hemisphere is about to knock this thing on its butt (until a November resurgence).

4) Sheer coincidence. A product of randomness in the Universe. It must be said that that's a whole lot of randomness all over the world all pointing in the same direction.

Which of these strikes you as most likely?

I will say one thing - I have always said the Warm Weather Miracle and the Agip Hypothesis are the two wild cards in this whole thing (aside from human actions/inventions). I will say with certainty that the above patterns are NOT caused by the Agip Hypothesis.

I am actually surprised that this pattern has not been picked up on in the media. I am certain that IF it continues for another 3 days then everyone will be talking about it.

P wrote:

I will say one thing - I have always said the Warm Weather Miracle and the Agip Hypothesis are the two wild cards in this whole thing (aside from human actions/inventions).

You need to understand that viruses do not die with warm weather. Your body and becomes immune, if it has time, when it developed antibodies against a specific virus. The antibodies stay with you after the virus dies.

With COV several things can happen.

One is new strains come along next season (COVID-20) and you can get sick again—this is how influenza works; get a flu shot each season that is updated to deal with new virus strains.

Two is what appears to be an oddity with COV. You can get sick to the same virus again. This oddity is probably related to the human body having a hard time developing antibodies. People are being released as cured when they can still have a relapse. No one knows how long it actually takes to develop antibodies against COV-19.

Basically, a cure needs to be developed and tested, and that usually requires an entire year. Some drug companies are working hard to try to start clinical testing this September, which, unfortunately, won't make a COV-shot available for next flu season (assuming COV is a cool/cold weather virus, but this not known yet).