You have TDS. Stage 4. Seek help.
agip wrote:
I live in a big city in lockdown, and it's all anecdote but it sure seem that the air is cleaner right now. We've had the most amazing spring days I can remember.
I am 100% certain that the air is cleaner. Take most of the cars off the road and reduce the demand for electricity. What you get is less fossil fuel burned and cleaner air.
Just think, with a fraction of what we spent on the recent stimulus bill, we can convert to electric cars and renewable power. Then we can have clean air all the time and save countless lives.
kibitzer wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
You included Joe BIden. Are you really as stupid as to not see that? You included "other leberals". Here;s my promise: you are dead to me. I will no longer take anything you say seriously.,
So long.
Well, better late than never. Now if the rest of you could just stop feeding the troll (aka SV)--just entirely stop responding to it--then this thread, and the level of discussion, would improve.
+1000
I’ll say this for trumpanzees, they have tied trump to his performance in this crisis just like we have.
And it’s destroying him & them.
Another interesting site visualizing the COVID-19 data.
Crisis tends to help a presidency. His bungling the corona virus response might help him get reelected. Crazy times.
A few more links:
Another heatmap:
Take note, P. THESE are models. Remember the saying though, "all models are wrong, but some are useful."
Yosinglerct wrote:
Another interesting site visualizing the COVID-19 data.
http://www.casualhacker.net/covid19/#USA
Thanks for that. Very interesting indeed. That makes it very easy to come up with rough estimates of where this is going.
I graphed Italy vs. US on a per capita basis. If you shift by 14 days you get almost exactly the same curve. This suggests that as a nation, we are two weeks behind Italy.
Then when you switch from cumulative cases to daily cases you see that Italy seems to be stuck at around 10 new daily cases per 100,000 population.
So here is what will happen in two weeks. If we stay on Italy's curve we will start to see around 32,000 new cases each day in the US. And at that point we will have about half a million total cases.
Roughly 6 percent of all COVID-19 patients end up on a ventilator. So in two weeks we will need 30,000 ventilators nationwide. Sound like a familiar number? That's how many Governor Cuomo said New York would need at the high end of the expert estimates. Given that New York has over 40 percent of the nation's cases, 30,000 is probably a good high end number.
Disclaimer: All of the above estimates are very rough and I did them very quickly. But they do seem in line with what the experts are saying.
I just realized something.
Right now we are 14 days behind Italy on the curve. 20 days ago, Italy was put on nationwide lockdown. We didn't do that or anything close to that six days ago.
This means that in all likelihood, we won't stay on Italy's curve going forward. We will be much worse off. That's very scary.
Italy has seen unimaginable horrors. But it looks like ours will be even worse. I hope someone can convince me I'm wrong.
Politically, the virus is an anarchist & a suicidal assassin. It can put trillions of protesters in the streets, in the homes, everyone everywhere. It will out-troll every troll, it will crush stupid politicians in USA/UK/Russia/Iran/Brazil.
Biologically it’s a darwinist. To survive, we have to out-think a mutant with no brain; work together (yes, socialism) because we’re outnumbered & outgunned.
Please, Donald, don’t mobilize the military.
Let’s just destroy ourselves to save other countries from trying it.
Fat hurts wrote:
I just realized something.
Right now we are 14 days behind Italy on the curve. 20 days ago, Italy was put on nationwide lockdown. We didn't do that or anything close to that six days ago.
This means that in all likelihood, we won't stay on Italy's curve going forward. We will be much worse off. That's very scary.
Italy has seen unimaginable horrors. But it looks like ours will be even worse. I hope someone can convince me I'm wrong.
we've seen variation by nation...variables a model doesn't take into consideration:
1) quality of healthcare
2) later cases will have the benefit of learning from earlier cases. and we hope a cure will be found.
3) demographics
4) rate of smoking, diabetes, obesity
5) weather. if it is cold and rainy people will stay home more.
6) testing/quarrantine/following lockdown instructions etc
jesseriley wrote:
It will out-troll every troll,...
No way it out trolls you. Not a chance.
Yes, variation, and I’ve said from the start that Germany is the best-prepared nation on Earth.
It’s not a free ride for Germany, but it will be worse in proportion to how little we imitate them. There’s your fvcking equation agip.
If better-governed nations with more solidarity end up dominating USA, I can only be the messenger.
With all the data that is being collected from the COVID-19 pandemic. I don't want to hear any student (in any field) for the next 5 years say they can't seem to find a topic for their thesis or dissertation.
Yes thanks professor.
I always hear how “complex” issues are. You simplify by imitating people who know more than you (Germans). Role models, such a complex idea.
Listening to the MD David Katz being interviewed by Fareed Zakariah who wrote the article that fuelled Trump' s claim that "the cure could be worse than the disease". Dr Katz said his arguments had been caricatured, and that his main point is that all decisions should be data-driven. He added "I can't be personally responsible for a President who deals with nuanced public health policy in tweets with all the refinement of farts".
Hmmm. Perhaps, Germany is not so dissimilar???