Revisiting Italy v USA - with emphasis on Fat Hurts' important point and the typically excellent questions of Have to ask....
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All case and death numbers below are for Italy only and are cumulative totals.
Exact percentage growth is shown for last few days. Estimated daily average growth rates provided for earlier dates.
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Cumulative Cases (#), Daily growth (%):
Mar 7: 6,000, N/A <- USA here on Mar 22 (15 days behind)
Mar 8: 7,176, 19.6 *
Mar 9: 8,582, 19.6 * * Mar 8 - Mar 11 Italy instituted a nation-wide lockdown including closing bars..
Mar 10: 10,265, 19.6 * <- USA here on Mar 24 (now 14 days behind)
Mar 11: 12,277, 19.6 *
Mar 12: 14,683, 19.6
Mar 13: 17,561, 19.6
Mar 14: 20,195, 15.0
Mar 15: 23,224, 15.0
Mar 16: 26,707, 15.0
Mar 17: 30,714, 15.0
Mar 18: 35,321, 15.0
Mar 19: 41,035, 16.2
Mar 20: 47,021, 14.6
Mar 21: 53,578, 13.9
Mar 22: 59,138, 10.4
Mar 23: 63,927, 8.1
Mar 24: 69,176, 8.2
Cumulative Deaths (#), Daily growth (%):
Mar 7: 347, N/A < - USA here on March 24 (17 days behind)
Mar 8: 419, 20.7 *
Mar 9: 505, 20.7 * Mar 8 - Mar 11 Italy instituted a nation-wide lockdown including ...
Mar 10: 610, 20.7 *  ... the closing of all bars and restaurants
Mar 11: 736, 20.7 *
Mar 12: 889, 20.7
Mar 13: 1,073, 20.7
Mar 14: 1,295, 20.7
Mar 15: 1,563, 20.7
Mar 16: 1,886, 20.7
Mar 17: 2,277, 20.7
Mar 18: 2,748, 20.7
Mar 19: 3,405, 23.9
Mar 20: 4,032, 18.4
Mar 21: 4,825, 19.7
Mar 22: 5,476, 13.5
Mar 23: 6,077, 11.0
Mar 24: 6,820, 12.2
Fatality Rate (Cumulative deaths/cases)
Mar 8: 5.8%
Mar 9: 5.9%
Mar 10: 5.9%
Mar 11: 6.0%
Mar 12: 6.1%
Mar 13: 6.1%
Mar 14: 6.4%
Mar 15: 6.7%
Mar 16: 7.1%
Mar 17: 7.4%
Mar 18: 7.8%
Mar 19: 8.3%
Mar 20: 8.6%
Mar 21: 9.0%
Mar 22: 9.3%
Mar 23: 9.5%
Mar 24: 9.9%
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Note 1: US population is roughly 5.5x that of Italy. In respecting Fat Hurts' excellent point about cases/population I track where USA cases/population and death/population line up with Italy's
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Have to ask... #1:  "My question at this point is we may or may not be like Italy.. could be same, worse, or even better.. don't you think there are other factors at play here which help to determine exactly how this will all turn out.. meaning other factors beyond the virus and the move to SIP?
I certainly do... and I'm sure you do too except your model and conclusion which follow don't seem to include other factors ... well you did mention smoking habits and average ave.. but you ended up discounting that with ...'hospitals being overrun., etc'... and then moved to 'horrors as a nation'..."
A) Sorry, I did not mean to discount "smoking habits and average age". My apologies if it came across that way. In summary, regarding other factors - Yes, other factors seem to impact fatality rates a great deal. I would be shocked if the fatality rate in the US ever approaches that of Italy
B) On the other hand, the rate of spread of the virus has been incredibly consistent across the vast majority of nations. The growth rate is 17 - 22% nearly everywhere you look UNTIL REAL ACTIONS ARE TAKEN TO SLOW IT DOWN. Italy was no exception. The US is no exception. It should be clear to all by now that we are all on the same curve (until we choose to get off).
Have to ask... #1: "I don't know where it will all end up, but this entire mess is filled with uncertainty and lack of clear understanding of this virus..... thus rendering all predictions closer to just guessing. "
I fundamentally disagree. I have been in the business of building mathematical models for business, environmental and health issues for over 25 years. This is what I do. The model of the spread of this virus is actually quite simple and the numbers are quite predictable. The only real unknowns as far as virus spread are:
1) The "Agip Ratio" - how many cases exist for every one reported.
2) The impact of changes in the weather
3) Government intervention - how serious will it be and when will it be applied.
Regarding 1), the Agip Ratio - it is true that this is unknown but, unless it is enormous (100x) it really doesn't impact much for the next several weeks. I provided a summary of the impacts of the Agip Ratio several days back (in answer to one of your questions). It's impacts are well understood.
Regarding 2), impact of weather - this could be a game changer. So far we have not seen much to be optimistic about here so I am choosing to ignore it. But I grant that it may turn out to be our salvation.
Regarding 3) Government intervention - It is clear that the US is not reacting as forcefully, as quickly or in as coordinated a fashion as pretty much any European country. Leaving aside the wild card of a warm weather miracle, I have no doubt that the US is headed for a worse outcome than Italy as far as cases go. We will almost certainly do better in terms of fatality rates as posted to date. And a bit more analysis could see where total deaths are likely to end up but ALL DEPENDS ON THE NATIONAL RESPONSE TO THIS THING.
So, no, it is not guesswork, other than the guesswork as to the timing and intensity of lockdowns. Given a lockdown scenario it is not difficult to be reasonably certain as to the path that we will be on.
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As I said, modeling such systems is what I do. It is what I have done for a long time. And every company, government entity and NGO (including WHO, CDC and NIH) that I have ever provided modeling solutions for has started off claiming that their case is so unique and their data is so unreliable that my colleagues and I could not possibly model it. And every time we do. The models involved in the spread of COVID-19 are simpler than 95% of the models that we develop for our clients. And the data available for COVID-19 is in better shape than that of 80% of our clients. So, no, this is not an intractable problem, the LRC peanut gallery notwithstanding.