Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

Revisiting Italy v USA - with emphasis on Fat Hurts' important point and the typically excellent questions of Have to ask....

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All case and death numbers below are for Italy only and are cumulative totals.

Exact percentage growth is shown for last few days. Estimated daily average growth rates provided for earlier dates.

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Cumulative Cases (#), Daily growth (%):

Mar 7: 6,000, N/A <- USA here on Mar 22 (15 days behind)

Mar 8: 7,176, 19.6 *

Mar 9: 8,582, 19.6 * * Mar 8 - Mar 11 Italy instituted a nation-wide lockdown including closing bars..

Mar 10: 10,265, 19.6 * <- USA here on Mar 24 (now 14 days behind)

Mar 11: 12,277, 19.6 *

Mar 12: 14,683, 19.6

Mar 13: 17,561, 19.6

Mar 14: 20,195, 15.0

Mar 15: 23,224, 15.0

Mar 16: 26,707, 15.0

Mar 17: 30,714, 15.0

Mar 18: 35,321, 15.0

Mar 19: 41,035, 16.2

Mar 20: 47,021, 14.6

Mar 21: 53,578, 13.9

Mar 22: 59,138, 10.4

Mar 23: 63,927, 8.1

Mar 24: 69,176, 8.2

Cumulative Deaths (#), Daily growth (%):

Mar 7: 347, N/A < - USA here on March 24 (17 days behind)

Mar 8: 419, 20.7 *

Mar 9: 505, 20.7 * Mar 8 - Mar 11 Italy instituted a nation-wide lockdown including ...

Mar 10: 610, 20.7 * ... the closing of all bars and restaurants

Mar 11: 736, 20.7 *

Mar 12: 889, 20.7

Mar 13: 1,073, 20.7

Mar 14: 1,295, 20.7

Mar 15: 1,563, 20.7

Mar 16: 1,886, 20.7

Mar 17: 2,277, 20.7

Mar 18: 2,748, 20.7

Mar 19: 3,405, 23.9

Mar 20: 4,032, 18.4

Mar 21: 4,825, 19.7

Mar 22: 5,476, 13.5

Mar 23: 6,077, 11.0

Mar 24: 6,820, 12.2

Fatality Rate (Cumulative deaths/cases)

Mar 8: 5.8%

Mar 9: 5.9%

Mar 10: 5.9%

Mar 11: 6.0%

Mar 12: 6.1%

Mar 13: 6.1%

Mar 14: 6.4%

Mar 15: 6.7%

Mar 16: 7.1%

Mar 17: 7.4%

Mar 18: 7.8%

Mar 19: 8.3%

Mar 20: 8.6%

Mar 21: 9.0%

Mar 22: 9.3%

Mar 23: 9.5%

Mar 24: 9.9%

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Note 1: US population is roughly 5.5x that of Italy. In respecting Fat Hurts' excellent point about cases/population I track where USA cases/population and death/population line up with Italy's

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Have to ask... #1: "My question at this point is we may or may not be like Italy.. could be same, worse, or even better.. don't you think there are other factors at play here which help to determine exactly how this will all turn out.. meaning other factors beyond the virus and the move to SIP?

I certainly do... and I'm sure you do too except your model and conclusion which follow don't seem to include other factors ... well you did mention smoking habits and average ave.. but you ended up discounting that with ...'hospitals being overrun., etc'... and then moved to 'horrors as a nation'..."

A) Sorry, I did not mean to discount "smoking habits and average age". My apologies if it came across that way. In summary, regarding other factors - Yes, other factors seem to impact fatality rates a great deal. I would be shocked if the fatality rate in the US ever approaches that of Italy

B) On the other hand, the rate of spread of the virus has been incredibly consistent across the vast majority of nations. The growth rate is 17 - 22% nearly everywhere you look UNTIL REAL ACTIONS ARE TAKEN TO SLOW IT DOWN. Italy was no exception. The US is no exception. It should be clear to all by now that we are all on the same curve (until we choose to get off).

Have to ask... #1: "I don't know where it will all end up, but this entire mess is filled with uncertainty and lack of clear understanding of this virus..... thus rendering all predictions closer to just guessing. "

I fundamentally disagree. I have been in the business of building mathematical models for business, environmental and health issues for over 25 years. This is what I do. The model of the spread of this virus is actually quite simple and the numbers are quite predictable. The only real unknowns as far as virus spread are:

1) The "Agip Ratio" - how many cases exist for every one reported.

2) The impact of changes in the weather

3) Government intervention - how serious will it be and when will it be applied.

Regarding 1), the Agip Ratio - it is true that this is unknown but, unless it is enormous (100x) it really doesn't impact much for the next several weeks. I provided a summary of the impacts of the Agip Ratio several days back (in answer to one of your questions). It's impacts are well understood.

Regarding 2), impact of weather - this could be a game changer. So far we have not seen much to be optimistic about here so I am choosing to ignore it. But I grant that it may turn out to be our salvation.

Regarding 3) Government intervention - It is clear that the US is not reacting as forcefully, as quickly or in as coordinated a fashion as pretty much any European country. Leaving aside the wild card of a warm weather miracle, I have no doubt that the US is headed for a worse outcome than Italy as far as cases go. We will almost certainly do better in terms of fatality rates as posted to date. And a bit more analysis could see where total deaths are likely to end up but ALL DEPENDS ON THE NATIONAL RESPONSE TO THIS THING.

So, no, it is not guesswork, other than the guesswork as to the timing and intensity of lockdowns. Given a lockdown scenario it is not difficult to be reasonably certain as to the path that we will be on.

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As I said, modeling such systems is what I do. It is what I have done for a long time. And every company, government entity and NGO (including WHO, CDC and NIH) that I have ever provided modeling solutions for has started off claiming that their case is so unique and their data is so unreliable that my colleagues and I could not possibly model it. And every time we do. The models involved in the spread of COVID-19 are simpler than 95% of the models that we develop for our clients. And the data available for COVID-19 is in better shape than that of 80% of our clients. So, no, this is not an intractable problem, the LRC peanut gallery notwithstanding.

Yonsinglerct wrote:

A question for you. You've dodged it twice already and I'll assume you'll dodge it again, but I'll give it another try.

Do you think the data is reliable?

The data is reliable enough for those who know how to use it. Any serious mathematical modeler would look at the data available today and consider it a dream - much better than is typically available in our day-to-day jobs.

Ciro wrote:

P,

Are those US or global percentages?

Thanks.

Global

Thanks for the heads up on the late-in-the-day change in numbers. For me it is of no importance at all. What comes in one day versus the next impacts single day data points. These are of no interest to me. I look at the overall pattern which is not affected by whether a large number of cases or deaths get recorded today versus tomorrow.

But again, a sincere thanks for the heads up.

Any chance they impeach Trump again after this whole virus thing settles down? I feel like there has to be something Dems can go after him on with his handling of this crisis.

Smorbun wrote:

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

If Botox Pelosi keeps obstructing this, the Dems may lose the House. They might anyway.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/losing-the-optics-democrats-risk-voter-backlash-with-holdup-of-coronavirus-aid-package

Katy Perry uses botox. Big deal. How many men do you know who wear orange makeup? You want to go the route of making fun of Pelosi for that but your lame excuse for a man President whom you love wears orange makeup?

Seriously. Shut up, idiot.

Settle down Sourbuns.

He’ll leave office after his two terms are done. That is two democratically terms.

You left out the response of banning Chinese’s flights very early in the game.

Be responsible, stay home.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/kentucky-resident-tests-positive-covid-032643825.html

PresidentTrump wrote:

He’ll leave office after his two terms are done. That is two democratically terms.

You left out the response of banning Chinese’s flights very early in the game.

Yeah that worked a treat, well done.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

Smorbun wrote:

Katy Perry uses botox. Big deal. How many men do you know who wear orange makeup? You want to go the route of making fun of Pelosi for that but your lame excuse for a man President whom you love wears orange makeup?

Seriously. Shut up, idiot.

Settle down Sourbuns.

I'll do what I want.

PresidentTrump wrote:

He’ll leave office after his two terms are done. That is two democratically terms.

You left out the response of banning Chinese’s flights very early in the game.

Oh, another dumba$$ Trumper.

Trump never banned flights from China.

Even one of the biggest Trump supporter newspapers says so:

You are just an idiot. Do any of you Trumpers actually know anything? I have not seen any evidence that you do. You are dumb like Sally and not cut out for the discussion here.

agip wrote:

agip wrote:

withdrawn.

Spain just updated data that made the picture much worse for them and the world.

P I think you probably need to rerun your numbers.

Now...there is no good news that I can see. Instead of things getting worse less quickly, they are getting worse more quickly. Today, anyway.

Maybe time to relearn your flndamentals and work on 3 days moving averages for cumulative data updated every 24h?

So the "wartime president" is already bored with the war and has declared hostilities will come to an end Easter Sunday. We all know viruses are religious and peace-loving.

Wartime President: "Hey, guys - Normandy is off. I have a gut-feeling that the Nazis will go home. D-Day will be such a 'beautiful day'".

Flagpole wrote:

When he prematurely gives the all clear, dumba$$ Trumpers will go out and gather together, believing it is an anti-Democrat activity.

That's a very good point.

When Tiny gives the all clear, hundreds of thousands of idiot Trumpers are going to gather together as a sign that they love and trust their hero. There will be small rallies all across America in celebration and triumph. Then, just as a parade in Philadelphia set off a torrent of the 1918 Spanish flu, this will be a death sentence for many Trumpers.

Here is the central question:

Do we want to shut down the economy now because we shelter in place or do we want to shut down the economy later because everyone is sick?

Joe Blow wrote:

Any chance they impeach Trump again after this whole virus thing settles down? I feel like there has to be something Dems can go after him on with his handling of this crisis.

First, it is unlikely that this whole thing is going to "settle down" before the election. We are not doing the things we need to do to stop the spread. We may slow it down over the summer, but it will probably come raging back in the fall.

Second, I don't see any impeachable offense related to his handling of the crisis. There is no provision in the constitution to remove a president for doing a terrible job.

We all know that one of the best ways to stop the spread of the virus is social distancing. But there is another simple thing we can do that hasn't been talked about much at all. That is, you can boost your immune system by getting plenty of sleep. This is thoroughly proven. It works and it costs us nothing. From mayoclinic.org:

Yes, lack of sleep can affect your immune system. Studies show that people who don't get quality sleep or enough sleep are more likely to get sick after being exposed to a virus, such as a common cold virus. Lack of sleep can also affect how fast you recover if you do get sick.

Rest well my friends. Get at least 7 hours of sleep each night.

I don’t know what all the hub-buh is about in the USA. This thing has been under control for almost a month in the USA. FACT! Source.....

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1232058127740174339?s=12

Also, it is projected that we will surpass China in total cases by early next week and in both deaths and total deaths per million people by late next week. Therefore, early this AM the WHO, CDC, and various other public health agencies announced a name change for the virus. The virus will now be known as the novel Trump-virus. Everyone agrees!

First, FH, thanks for the reminder about sleeping. It's enormously important in resisting/recovering from a virus. But second, unfortunately, this bespeaks a continuing confusion:

Fat hurts wrote: There is no provision in the constitution to remove a president for doing a terrible job.

YES, THERE IS: IMPEACHMENT.

Impeachment is a political process, not a legal process. A high crime or misdemeanor is whatever a majority of the House says it is, and under the Constitution there is no government body with the authority to gainsay the House's definition. Only the voters, eventually, have that power.

Extreme example: Suppose a president simply got tired of "presidenting" and refused to work anymore. Congress absolutely would have the power to impeach-convict-remove that president, even though s/he might have done nothing that matched the legal definition of any crime.