I have serious doubts about how good the reporting of case numbers is. My state is only reporting 1 case in my city and none in the county. The local health department has confirmed 3 cases in the city and an additional 3 in the county. Not big numbers by any stretch, but if you start to multiply that out... I'm sure these cases will be added in after a delay, but these were all confirmed several days ago.
moderates suck wrote:
I have serious doubts about how good the reporting of case numbers is. My state is only reporting 1 case in my city and none in the county. The local health department has confirmed 3 cases in the city and an additional 3 in the county. Not big numbers by any stretch, but if you start to multiply that out... I'm sure these cases will be added in after a delay, but these were all confirmed several days ago.
agreed, and that's why I'm only looking at deaths.
agip wrote:
agreed, and that's why I'm only looking at deaths.
You are looking at whatever numbers you think you can spin into whatever narrative you are pushing.
Deaths are rising, agip’s lying.
jesseriley wrote:
Plus Iran is lying. The mullahs don’t want to give up power, don’t want to admit they’ve wasted time & money supporting all these wars while people need healthcare. Secular rule could be coming.
I honestly cannot understand why anyone would expect the numbers from Iran (or China for that matter) to be at all accurate.
You should look at more than the deaths.
Death rates aren’t the reason for the economic catastrophe we are getting into.
It’s the uptick in exams and treatments caused by this virus. And the pressure that had put on the system.
I’m curious to see how the pace of people seeking medical care changed week over week since the beginning of this year.
I’m not even interested in official CV case numbers since we know people are being denied tests in most instances.
If you only look at deaths, it looks like a huge overreaction to shut things down.
But if you find the entire medical field is being strained beyond capacity because people have CV symptoms, it becomes understandable to close things down to slow down the spread rate.
Fat hurts wrote:
Have to ask......... wrote:
Any clue why the death rate (or whatever the correct term is here) seems to be substantially higher in Italy than anywhere else? Even Iran is lower...
It could be for some or all of these reasons:
* Older population in Italy
* Health care system was overwhelmed faster
* Italy is seeing a more virulent strain of the virus
* Italy is gathering statistics in a way that is different. That is, they may have a different criteria for what counts as a coronavirus case and/or what counts as a coronavirus death.
No doubt some or all of these reasons.
Unfortunately, because there isn't accurate information coming from anywhere it's still nearly impossible to draw conclusions. Folks are still guessing... some certainly have more insight than others but still guessing.
I still maintain the key statistics we will want to have a handle on (meaning accurate statistics) are:
1) how many (%) in a population will get the disease
2) of those how many (%) will need hospitalization
3) of those how many (%)) will recover
I know P has calculated that using a few different variables which was a lot of work, however, we still don't have an actual handle on those numbers.
btw, I personally am annoyed when I hear someone like G Newsom saying up to 56% of Californians may get the disease because to many that means (in their brains) that up to 56% of will die. To me, there needs to be more clear explanations or at least an attempt. Of course, maybe they'd rather just scare people into following the SIP order..... who knows.?
And that's the problem, no one seems to...
Agree. One can always look at democratic countries that have healthcare, who have less reason to lie. They’re taking more & more precautions, even when the politicians resist.
For instance Germany, very well prepared, is considering shelter-in-place because people are slow to follow the rules on social distancing.
moderates suck wrote:
agip wrote:
agreed, and that's why I'm only looking at deaths.
You are looking at whatever numbers you think you can spin into whatever narrative you are pushing.
I'm pessimistic when the numbers are bad and optimistic when the numbers are good.
I have no narrative. I post good news and bad news.
agip wrote:
moderates suck wrote:
You are looking at whatever numbers you think you can spin into whatever narrative you are pushing.
I'm pessimistic when the numbers are bad and optimistic when the numbers are good.
I have no narrative. I post good news and bad news.
well that's sort of half true.
If I have a narrative, it is that Italy, Span and Iran might well be considered as their own individual hellscape, that should not be projected onto every nation.
There is some evidence that the relatively high per capita deaths in those countries will not repeat in every country.
We'll see. It's too early to say.
For example: Yesterday Italy had a very bad day, which made the global numbers look bad.
But if you look at the world minus Italy. Spain, Iran, there was only a 2% rise in deaths. 318 on Friday vs, 311 on Thursday.
I'd like to know that fact. It's an interesting fact. Should be considered.
Have to ask....... wrote:
I personally am annoyed when I hear someone like G Newsom saying up to 56% of Californians may get the disease because to many that means (in their brains) that up to 56% of will die.
I don't know how many of us will get Coronavirus, but I can guarantee you that 100% of us will die. Some sooner than later.
Forgotten Man wrote:
Have to ask....... wrote:
I personally am annoyed when I hear someone like G Newsom saying up to 56% of Californians may get the disease because to many that means (in their brains) that up to 56% of will die.
I don't know how many of us will get Coronavirus, but I can guarantee you that 100% of us will die. Some sooner than later.
Yes. I failed to put 'from Covid-19' at the end of my sentence. Nice point. Boy, I sure hope people knew what I meant.
agip wrote:
agip wrote:
I'm pessimistic when the numbers are bad and optimistic when the numbers are good.
I have no narrative. I post good news and bad news.
well that's sort of half true.
If I have a narrative, it is that Italy, Span and Iran might well be considered as their own individual hellscape, that should not be projected onto every nation.
There is some evidence that the relatively high per capita deaths in those countries will not repeat in every country.
We'll see. It's too early to say.
For example: Yesterday Italy had a very bad day, which made the global numbers look bad.
But if you look at the world minus Italy. Spain, Iran, there was only a 2% rise in deaths. 318 on Friday vs, 311 on Thursday.
I'd like to know that fact. It's an interesting fact. Should be considered.
or even closer...I think we need to understand that so far, Italy, Spain, Iran are different statistically than the rest of the world. The ramifications of that go in many directions. I've made some speculations about how that divergence should be viewed. The divergence could be good, could be bad. I'm trying to see what the numbers say about that.
My biggest fault is that I'm dead focused on day to day numbers that are noisy.
Got it. You’re not blind, you just close your eyes.
agip’s statistical outliers are easy to understand if you assume time stands still. Crazy people believe there was a “last month” (China outlier); or a “future” (additional outliers).
Another WH press conference starts way late. They’re struggling to get fat boy dressed in time.
Just the numbers:
Who are you & what have you done with Trigged?
No deep state? No trash talk? No hoax? No fake news? No libs, commies, nor dems?
I am still here.
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America first!
KAG2020