Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

Trollminator wrote:

Sally Vix wrote:

Very easy to manage both those statements. One is me being critical of the president in his response. The other is the hypocrisy of Liberals in never giving Trump credit for when the markets were going like gangbusters and now attributing the market's demise solely on Trump. You can't have it both ways.

If you haven't noticed, everyone is pointing to and mocking HIS hypocrisy of trying to claim credit for any market performance to begin with... but I see you obviously still don't get it. Funny we never once saw you reject his insane idea that somehow he was causing the markets to rally... in fact, you bought into his con job 100%, congratulations.

I know you are very busy here posting your thoughtful posts, so I have linked something to help you with your studies (no thanks needed!):

Sally Vix wrote:

L L wrote:

trump celebrating stock market

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxmIZ26kSig

It goes both ways, right?

I am not saying you specifically, LL, but just about every LIberal here who was saying the stock market was doing great despite Trump are now ALL declaring the tanking is Trump's fault.

Agreed. The libs were praising Obama when it was going up & now blame Trump for going down. Well, when the stock markets reverse and it starts going up again, it is because of Trump.

agip wrote:

I'm curious why there don't seem to be any stories about the flatlining for several days of Italian new cases and deaths. Is that a wrong way to look at the data? Or are journos not comfortable putting anything comforting in their stories?

Also, Iran has had multiple days of flatlined new cases. Deaths continue to rise though.

Don't mean to call you out retroactively but Italy's death/cases just went up substantially. I'd blame it on the difficulty in collecting/reporting data amidst a lockdown but honestly don't really know.

CountChocula wrote:

agip wrote:

I'm curious why there don't seem to be any stories about the flatlining for several days of Italian new cases and deaths. Is that a wrong way to look at the data? Or are journos not comfortable putting anything comforting in their stories?

Also, Iran has had multiple days of flatlined new cases. Deaths continue to rise though.

Don't mean to call you out retroactively but Italy's death/cases just went up substantially. I'd blame it on the difficulty in collecting/reporting data amidst a lockdown but honestly don't really know.

It's fine to call him out. Its only about the millionth time he has been wrong about the whole thing.

Don't worry, it won't deter him, he will be back posting misleading gibberish tonight or tomorrow morning.

Have to ask.... wrote:

I think it's time to start looking at the important data... that is instead of arguing...

Here are the questions I have to ask...

1) How many in the US will get Covid-19?

2) Of those how many will require hospitalization?

3) Of those what percentage will recover?

If we can get a handle on those answers it will provide far more clarity and may allow us to get back to some sense of normal life.

Best of luck to all and stay healthy!

(Also, as a side note, I'm certainly no fan of Trump but to continue the blame game doesn't help cure anything.)

Good questions. As you might imagine, the answers are not quite so straightforward. Here I will give a reasonable shot at your three questions with a few very large caveats. The value in the numbers presented is not that this is what will come to pass. It is in noting that this is what we are trying to avoid (and we will no doubt avoid the worst case scenario which is the first thing I present).

Note: All scenarios and numbers are for the US only.

Caveat 1: I am making no prediction regarding the change in weather slowing this thing down. Such a change as things warm up may well be enormous. I am not modeling any change.

Caveat 2: The numbers below represent "do nothing" scenarios. Of course, we are already doing something to limit people's close interactions. So, without any doubt, we are already on pace to do better than the numbers below. Again, these numbers represent what we are avoiding. Hopefully we avoid them by a whole lot.

Caveat 3: I am not assuming any improvement in care due to the societal learning process.

Caveat 4: Any projection on these numbers depends on the time frame. I am assuming that we are talking about over the next 12 months ( not the next 50 years).

///

The numbers and dates presented here assume a 2% fatality rate. As you have seen in my earlier posts, we are currently experiencing a 4% fatality rate worldwide. If anyone wishes to assume a smaller (or larger) fatality rate simply multiply the deaths as appropriate. Do note, however, that my 2% fatality rate is based off of reported, symptomatic cases - it is NOT based off of total cases, including undiagnosed cases. This is an important distinction to understand.

I have modeled three cases, depending on the big unknown - number of undiagnosed cases as a multiple of diagnosed cases.

Case 1: # undiagnosed cases is equal to the number of diagnosed cases. That is, total cases = 2x the number of cases currently being reported.

Case 2: # undiagnosed cases is 9x the number of diagnosed cases. That is, total cases = 10x the number of cases currently being reported.

Case 3: # undiagnosed cases is 99x the number of diagnosed cases. That is, total cases = 100x the number of cases currently being reported. This I call the "Agip Hypothesis". And no, agip, I am not mocking you here. I sincerely hope that you are right about this. Would be the best news ever!

///

Case 1: Total actual infected individuals = 2x what is being reported.

- 165 million Americans will get COVID-19. Of these, 82 million will show symptoms and be diagnosed.

- 16 million will require hospitalization

- 90% of those hospitalized (14.4 million) would recover IF there were sufficient hospital facilities to properly care for them. Under this scenario, there will be nowhere near enough hospital facilities and the death toll will be much higher than the 1.65 million projection.

- The peak of the pandemic would occur BEFORE THE END OF MAY. At its peak the reported new cases would be about 3.5 million PER DAY (IF we had the capacity to process that information).

///

Case 2: Total actual infected individuals = 10x what is being reported.

- 165 million Americans will get COVID-19. Of these, 16 million will show symptoms and be diagnosed.

- 3.3 million will require hospitalization

- 90% of those hospitalized (3 million) would recover IF there were sufficient hospital facilities to properly care for them. Under this scenario, there will be nowhere near enough hospital facilities and the death toll will be much higher than the 330,000 projection.

- The peak of the pandemic would occur BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF MAY (a bit earlier). At its peak the reported new cases would be about 700,000 PER DAY (IF we had the capacity to process that information).

///

Case 3: The Agip Hypothesis: Total actual infected individuals = 100x what is being reported.

- 165 million Americans will get COVID-19. Of these, 1.6 million will show symptoms and be diagnosed.

- 335,000 will require hospitalization

- 90% of those hospitalized (300,000) would recover IF there were sufficient hospital facilities to properly care for them. There might be enough hospital beds, ICU beds and intubation capacity to give everyone the best possible chance.

- The peak of the pandemic would occur NEAR THE END OF APRIL (a bit earlier again – less than six weeks away from today). At its peak the reported new cases would be nearly 100,000 PER DAY.

///

None of these scenarios will happen. These are what we are avoiding by taking action.

Next, if I get some time, I will present a couple of “take action” scenarios to show how large of a difference we are making by taking this thing seriously.

There are some honest Republicans speaking out against don the con.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gJgmkWJ6es

UNFIT.

Impressive post, P. Just curious - what kind of background do you have?

Ciro wrote:

There are some honest Republicans speaking out against don the con.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gJgmkWJ6es

UNFIT.

Were there any "honest" Democrats speaking out against Adam Schiff and the impeachment hearings?

Has he drained the swamp yet?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_cyQE36DTU

Conservative group The Lincoln Project are speaking out for decent Americans.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

Well, when the stock markets reverse and it starts going up again, it is because of Trump.

And if the stocks don't get back to where they were ...?

Sally Vix wrote:

I agree with everything you said. His response to this crisis is really souring me on him. He is not leading the country.

Really?

Honest question - could you not have foreseen his response to this crisis based on everything you had seen from him prior to now?

Sally I had somehow missed your Dow Jones thread until now, comedy gold ?

You never fail to disappoint.

Yeah, they’re speaking out against impeachment:

the ‘pubs all want to change their votes.

Moscow Mitch surrenders, passes House stimulus bill.

Sally Vix wrote:

L L wrote:

No. Us liberals aren't saying that. The stock tanking is not Trump's fault. I know.

Maybe you can quote posts where people said that Trump's actions have caused the markets to collapse.

What I am saying is that while the stocks were going up, he said look what I did.

As they crash, he'll say look what what happened to me. Or even look what the Chinese did.

But look how smug and self congratulating he was when things were good.

You ever see a football player celebrating before crossing the end zone?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0o_-GGDNIVg

I agree with everything you said. His response to this crisis is really souring me on him. He is not leading the country.

You have said stuff like this before, showing that perhaps you aren't a partisan ass, but then you have always failed. I won't hold my breath here. He has shown no leadership at any time in his Presidency. Not sure what has potentially tipped the scales for you, but again, we'll see. I predict you will be praising him and defending him and slamming well-meaning Democrats very soon.

Trump has now said he knew this was a pandemic even before it was called that. Such lying. Such BS. He has lied like that from day 1, and you have vehemently supported him. It does take dumb people much longer than others to see the light. I hope that time has come for you. He's a con man and not capable as President. We will see how you behave from now on, and I'll be sure to let you know how you're doing.

1100 wrote:

Sally Vix wrote:

I agree with everything you said. His response to this crisis is really souring me on him. He is not leading the country.

Really?

Honest question - could you not have foreseen his response to this crisis based on everything you had seen from him prior to now?

Honestly, he was not up for this type of crisis. Again, he appears disinterested. Just so lackluster his response. And the ones appearing with him on these press conferences are equally as unimpressive. I still say that the virus crisis is overblown but the tangential effects are wrecking havoc on the economy and the markets. To state again, I see him on these press conferences and he looks terrible. Like he would like to be anywhere but behind that lectern. Just a terrible, terrible response to a very real crisis.

CountChocula wrote:

agip wrote:

I'm curious why there don't seem to be any stories about the flatlining for several days of Italian new cases and deaths. Is that a wrong way to look at the data? Or are journos not comfortable putting anything comforting in their stories?

Also, Iran has had multiple days of flatlined new cases. Deaths continue to rise though.

Don't mean to call you out retroactively but Italy's death/cases just went up substantially. I'd blame it on the difficulty in collecting/reporting data amidst a lockdown but honestly don't really know.

Well, the reality of the situation in the U.S. is that Trump has classified the top level meetings. Meetings were decisions are made to how many infected Americans there are (Sharpie edited version).

Earlier today, the U.S. stopped tracking number of people recovered. It was set at 0 recovered.

Now, the tracking data from Johns Hopkins has entirely disappeared.

I believe the U.S. data just blew up, and someone doesn't want anyone to know because PANIC!

It blows my mind how inconvenienced he seems. He has no concern for the country and what is happening. He just emits a defiant tone and just wishes he was anywhere but at that press conference. The country is hurting and he is not up to the task.

Ciro wrote:

Sally I had somehow missed your Dow Jones thread until now, comedy gold ?

You never fail to disappoint.

Thanks! I am at the Bally on Wednesdays and Saturdays! Remember to tip your waitresses!