Some bad news today: Deaths spiked in Spain to 191. That's far in advance of that country's previous daily totals. Let's hope it was a statistical outlier.
But there's some good news:
In Italy, new case counts have roughly flatlined for four days, and daily death counts have roughly flatlined for three days. Three or four days does not a curve top make, but if a curve were topping out, this is what it might look like.
In Iran new cases have flatlined for around 6 days. Also good. But daily death counts in Iran spiked up even more than usual.
Certainly death counts are probably lagging indicators, so the flatlines in case counts in Italy and Iran could be good news, despite the spike in deaths in Iran. Assuming testing has been consistent.
So we can still see some green shoots among the misery. Would be interesting to look at the top of the curve in China, SK, Japan and see if it looked like this.
Iran, Italy, Spain continue to make up around 85% of daily deaths. The total of deaths outside of those three countries was small: 132 people. But it doubled over five days and will continue to grow. I don't see an acceleration or deceleration in the pace of growth of deaths outside the big three countries.
Notably, Germany had a rough day, continuing to grow in case counts and deaths.