And now for the numbers.
Looking at the cumulative totals today. All numbers are for the entire world excluding China.
Cumulative Cases (#), Daily growth (%):
Mar 7: 24,877, N/A
Mar 8: 29,020, 16.7
Mar 9: 33,339, 14.9
Mar 10: 38,119, 14.3
Mar 11: 45,028, 18.1
Mar 12: 53,714, 19.3
Mar 13: 64,521, 20.1
Mar 14: 75,265, 16.7
Mar 15: 88,264, 17.3
Mar 16: 101,419, 14.9
Cumulative Deaths (#), Daily growth (%):
Mar 7: 492, N/A
Mar 8: 704, 43.1
Mar 9: 884, 25.6
Mar 10: 1,133, 28.2
Mar 11: 1,449, 27.9
Mar 12: 1,801, 24,3
Mar 13: 2,239, 24.3
Mar 14: 2,632, 17.6
Mar 15: 3,295, 25.2
Mar 16: 3,929, 19.2
Fatality Rate (Cumulative deaths/cases)
Mar 8: 2.4%
Mar 9: 2.7%
Mar 10: 3.0%
Mar 11: 3.2%
Mar 12: 3.4%
Mar 13: 3.5%
Mar 14: 3.5%
Mar 15: 3.7%
Mar 16: 3.9%
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Notes:
1) I, along with every person who possesses both a heart and a brain, has been looking at these types of numbers and desperately wishing for the day when the growth rates will begin to drop. Could today be that day? Cases; 14.9% daily increase from yesterday's 17.3%. Deaths; 19.2% daily increase from yesterday's 25.2%. It is only one day but let's hope the severe societal/economic measures that nations and states have been putting in place are finally going to get us "off the curve."
2) Note that the incubation period for COVID-19 has been estimated to be as low as 5 days to as high as 24 days. Nobody is too sure on this one. Assuming that it is 10 - 15 days (nothing to back this up), then it would be about 10 - 15 days AFTER the imposition of strict containment measures for the number of new symptomatic cases showing up to reflect that by slowing down. Lockdowns in Italy started about 10 days ago. Hopefully we see a significant slowdown in the growth of cases right about now. Rest of world to follow.
3) Take a look at the cumulative deaths for today (Mar 16) vs two days ago (Mar 14). The raw numbers are 3,929 v 2,632. That means that the # of deaths worldwide have grown by 50% IN TWO DAYS! Take a minute to let that sink in.
4) Fatality rare continues to climb - now up to 3.9%. Not happy news.
5) Take a look at the total number of cases today vs Mar 7. The numbers are 101,419 vs 24,877. That means that 75% of ALL cases were only detected in the last 9 days! Very few of these have run their course (0 - 9 days old) which means that the fatality rate among diagnosed cases is much, much higher than 3.9%.
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Some happy news. Some not so happy. The most important news is the slowdown in the rate of increase. It is only one day but that number is nearly the only thing that matters. Fingers crossed.