Exactly, temperature screening/testing is the first step. Once you know who has it, you put resources in their contact area. We haven’t even started in USA of course.
Exactly, temperature screening/testing is the first step. Once you know who has it, you put resources in their contact area. We haven’t even started in USA of course.
Here is the reason we are going to be like Italy instead of like China or South Korea:
WE HAVE NO PLAN!!!!
There is no coherent plan to contain this virus in the United States. "Run and hide" is not a plan.
German Gov’t confirms, trump tried to poach Tubingen virologists working on vaccine!!!!!!!
Offered large sums of money.
TREASON
Original story on trump’s scam was Welt am Sonntag, then Guardian live blog, then Philip Oltermann of Guardian tweeted confirmation from German gov’t.
I googled tubingen, then news. The company is CureVac, they just fired their CEO without explanation. Deutsche Welle (German public television website) has coverage in English.
Fat hurts wrote:
Have to ask.... wrote:
Here's my question, which actually doesn't have much to do with your latest group of statistics, but since you seem pretty sharp maybe you can shed some light on something I've been wondering.
And, certainly my facts may be incorrect so that may be the main issue here.
So assuming China's numbers are correct. As far as I understand it they shut down the entire province where the disease started and limited commerce elsewhere in China. By doing this they seem to have gotten a handle the disease... seemingly no longer is there the exponential growth of those getting it and those dying from it. And ultimately the disease hasn't overrun their entire country... which clearly is a good thing. As I understand it they are beginning to open things up there, allowing people to start work again and to get things rolling again there.
What confuses the heck out of me is what is preventing all of those people who weren't exposed and who didn't get the disease from the massive exponential growth that is happening everywhere else in the world. I mean what's to stop it from taking off there again???
I'll take your answer off the air, thanks!
I'm sure if you did a bit of research you could find a better answer, but from what I've gathered, the Chinese just have a much better handle on this than we do. Every citizen has a centralized medical record. They know who has been tested. They know who has recovered from COVID-19 and is presumed immune. They take your temperature everywhere you go.
If you have a fever you go directly to a fever clinic. You don't leave until they have determined that you don't have COVID-19. If you do have it, you are sent directly to a COVID-19 facility where non-critical patients are given care. You do not get to see your family until you have recovered.
So to answer your question, they are relying on a combination of technology, rigorous screening, and strict containment. If there is another outbreak they believe that they can stop it quickly before it spreads out of control.
As I understand it, viral epidemics do exactly what you said...they flare up, die out and then come back on a regular basis, preying on people who are not immune. Nothing much you can do to stop it other than test and isolate when the first new hotspots reappear.
The goal is to use the gap between waves to develop the vaccine and innoculate as many millions as you can. I think that's the goal here.
Trollminator wrote:
agip wrote:
deaths per day
3/8 228
3/9 198
3/10 271
3/11 332
3/12 353
3/13 448
3/14 406
Certainly that is a large percentage gain over a week and not good news.
We can hope today's fall in deaths will be a trend but that's not likely.
I don’t think these stats on their own are very meaningful in terms of predictive power. I would want to know where, and I mean in which municipalities/cities the new cases are popping up. Seeing a trend of new cases mostly in the same place, depending on where may actually be a sign that it’s being ringfenced successfully. Now seeing a small number of new cases popping up all over would be an alarming stat.
Yes, these are worldwide.
I think I agree that death totals count differently where they are. Another 20 deaths in in Iran would be less meaningful than a sudden 20-death day in Turkey, for example. Because, as you say, mass deaths in Turkey would indicate a new front.
Maybe I'll try to come up with a 'daily deaths excluding Iran, Italy and Spain' to see if that looks any different. Maybe this thing isn't really growing outside those three centers.
you do have to roll your eyes at why countries like Turkey say they have zero cases or deaths. I mean that's crazy and obviously false. Poor nations with bad governments aren't reporting data, I'm sure.
jesseriley wrote:
I googled tubingen, then news. The company is CureVac, they just fired their CEO without explanation. Deutsche Welle (German public television website) has coverage in English.
I saw this. So our piece of sh!t potus thinks it’s a good idea to poach a German invention that is intended to save people, but to hoard it exclusively for the US. Sounds to me like just another grifter move. He fkd up by cutting funding and taking his sweet time to react on CV. Our efforts have thus been delayed and underfunded, so now he will try to screw other millions of people to weasel his way out of responsibility. He has no moral code, there is only an inflated ego driving him. This is all because he doesn’t want to look bad, won’t own his errors and doesn’t want people to see he’s nothing but a sh!tbag. It has nothing to do with actually helping people, because if he did he would do something sensible like argue for co-ownership with Germany and partner with other countries and organization, a concept he has no understanding of.
No Donny, we don’t want you flying around cutting corrupt and unethical deals with our taxpayer money. Man up and take responsibility and get your fkn orange head in the game for once. The best you can do is stock up on Big Macs and self quarantine until Nov while real men and women take care of this crisis uninhibited by your recklessness and incompetence.
agip wrote:
you do have to roll your eyes at why countries like Turkey say they have zero cases or deaths. I mean that's crazy and obviously false. Poor nations with bad governments aren't reporting data, I'm sure.
Meanwhile trump envies these leaders for being able to get away with it.
agip wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
I don’t think these stats on their own are very meaningful in terms of predictive power. I would want to know where, and I mean in which municipalities/cities the new cases are popping up. Seeing a trend of new cases mostly in the same place, depending on where may actually be a sign that it’s being ringfenced successfully. Now seeing a small number of new cases popping up all over would be an alarming stat.
Yes, these are worldwide.
I think I agree that death totals count differently where they are. Another 20 deaths in in Iran would be less meaningful than a sudden 20-death day in Turkey, for example. Because, as you say, mass deaths in Turkey would indicate a new front.
Maybe I'll try to come up with a 'daily deaths excluding Iran, Italy and Spain' to see if that looks any different. Maybe this thing isn't really growing outside those three centers.
I’m thinking even more locally. I’m doing a master’s in Data Science and taking a statistical modeling course right now. if I were modeling the cases I would be checking new case count against number of cities/municipalities. I would expect to see a bunch of new outliers in the data representing new breakouts - soon to be no longer outliers though. As long as the model continued to indicate new outliers over time it would be indicative of continued spread. Additional cases in the same cities are less meaningful if we can assume the local government is taking action. Herd immunity will play a massive role in helping prevent further deaths from new outbreaks down the road. As crazy as it sounds, given those at risk are not exposed, the best thing that could happen is that healthy people get this virus and build immunity to it (not all at once to not overwhelm the hospitals). I think this is actually the only strategy available until a vaccine is ready.
IMO, this is being done the wrong way. All focus should have been to quarantine the at risk population - shield them from everybody else while they ride out the virus. Instead we are trying to do it the hard way, isolate the masses in hopes those at risk don’t get it. It’s a poor strategy for minimizing the death toll. I do however agree with minimizing the wave of new cases to ensure the health care system has capacity to deal with it. The messaging on this has been very wrong and we volunteered a much bigger than necessary economic shutdown over this. Basically no government wants to look bad so they are throwing the whole kitchen sink at this, but not getting the best results relative to the cost.
Trollminator wrote:
agip wrote:
Yes, these are worldwide.
I think I agree that death totals count differently where they are. Another 20 deaths in in Iran would be less meaningful than a sudden 20-death day in Turkey, for example. Because, as you say, mass deaths in Turkey would indicate a new front.
Maybe I'll try to come up with a 'daily deaths excluding Iran, Italy and Spain' to see if that looks any different. Maybe this thing isn't really growing outside those three centers.
I’m thinking even more locally. I’m doing a master’s in Data Science and taking a statistical modeling course right now. if I were modeling the cases I would be checking new case count against number of cities/municipalities. I would expect to see a bunch of new outliers in the data representing new breakouts - soon to be no longer outliers though. As long as the model continued to indicate new outliers over time it would be indicative of continued spread. Additional cases in the same cities are less meaningful if we can assume the local government is taking action. Herd immunity will play a massive role in helping prevent further deaths from new outbreaks down the road. As crazy as it sounds, given those at risk are not exposed, the best thing that could happen is that healthy people get this virus and build immunity to it (not all at once to not overwhelm the hospitals). I think this is actually the only strategy available until a vaccine is ready.
IMO, this is being done the wrong way. All focus should have been to quarantine the at risk population - shield them from everybody else while they ride out the virus. Instead we are trying to do it the hard way, isolate the masses in hopes those at risk don’t get it. It’s a poor strategy for minimizing the death toll. I do however agree with minimizing the wave of new cases to ensure the health care system has capacity to deal with it. The messaging on this has been very wrong and we volunteered a much bigger than necessary economic shutdown over this. Basically no government wants to look bad so they are throwing the whole kitchen sink at this, but not getting the best results relative to the cost.
the bolded thing is exactly what the UK is doing. Exactly.
It's controversial and they are taking fire for it. Can't wait to see how it turns out.
agip wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
I’m thinking even more locally. I’m doing a master’s in Data Science and taking a statistical modeling course right now. if I were modeling the cases I would be checking new case count against number of cities/municipalities. I would expect to see a bunch of new outliers in the data representing new breakouts - soon to be no longer outliers though. As long as the model continued to indicate new outliers over time it would be indicative of continued spread. Additional cases in the same cities are less meaningful if we can assume the local government is taking action. Herd immunity will play a massive role in helping prevent further deaths from new outbreaks down the road. As crazy as it sounds, given those at risk are not exposed, the best thing that could happen is that healthy people get this virus and build immunity to it (not all at once to not overwhelm the hospitals). I think this is actually the only strategy available until a vaccine is ready.
IMO, this is being done the wrong way. All focus should have been to quarantine the at risk population - shield them from everybody else while they ride out the virus. Instead we are trying to do it the hard way, isolate the masses in hopes those at risk don’t get it. It’s a poor strategy for minimizing the death toll. I do however agree with minimizing the wave of new cases to ensure the health care system has capacity to deal with it. The messaging on this has been very wrong and we volunteered a much bigger than necessary economic shutdown over this. Basically no government wants to look bad so they are throwing the whole kitchen sink at this, but not getting the best results relative to the cost.
the bolded thing is exactly what the UK is doing. Exactly.
It's controversial and they are taking fire for it. Can't wait to see how it turns out.
As long as they are quarantining the ask risk population this will turn out ok. Hopefully they don’t overwhelm their hospitals though.
agip wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
I’m thinking even more locally. I’m doing a master’s in Data Science and taking a statistical modeling course right now. if I were modeling the cases I would be checking new case count against number of cities/municipalities. I would expect to see a bunch of new outliers in the data representing new breakouts - soon to be no longer outliers though. As long as the model continued to indicate new outliers over time it would be indicative of continued spread. Additional cases in the same cities are less meaningful if we can assume the local government is taking action. Herd immunity will play a massive role in helping prevent further deaths from new outbreaks down the road. As crazy as it sounds, given those at risk are not exposed, the best thing that could happen is that healthy people get this virus and build immunity to it (not all at once to not overwhelm the hospitals). I think this is actually the only strategy available until a vaccine is ready.
IMO, this is being done the wrong way. All focus should have been to quarantine the at risk population - shield them from everybody else while they ride out the virus. Instead we are trying to do it the hard way, isolate the masses in hopes those at risk don’t get it. It’s a poor strategy for minimizing the death toll. I do however agree with minimizing the wave of new cases to ensure the health care system has capacity to deal with it. The messaging on this has been very wrong and we volunteered a much bigger than necessary economic shutdown over this. Basically no government wants to look bad so they are throwing the whole kitchen sink at this, but not getting the best results relative to the cost.
the bolded thing is exactly what the UK is doing. Exactly.
It's controversial and they are taking fire for it. Can't wait to see how it turns out.
As long as they are quarantining the ask risk population this will turn out ok. Hopefully they don’t overwhelm their hospitals though.
I'm pretty sure I'm going to regret posting this, but the numbers out of europe today so far are really positive - showing very large drops in case counts and in some cases death counts.
I fully understand that the data could be bad and there could be a shortage of test kits or capacity to test, but it's not bad news.
I'm not believing it yet, but it will keep me sane until the 7:30 PM EST data dumps.
TREASON because:
-Spending our money to destroy peaceful relations with allies
-Benefits trump politically (but hurts us, for above reasons)
-“Contrary to public interest”, a basic foundation of illegal acts
-Opportunity cost of failing to invoke atual, helpful measures
Etc etc
agip wrote:
I'm pretty sure I'm going to regret posting this, but the numbers out of europe today so far are really positive - showing very large drops in case counts and in some cases death counts.
I fully understand that the data could be bad and there could be a shortage of test kits or capacity to test, but it's not bad news.
I'm not believing it yet, but it will keep me sane until the 7:30 PM EST data dumps.
We need a week of a improving trend. Also, problematic in the power of this data will be that at some point there is no more lockdown and that will be another test to understand the potency of further breakouts. Italy took a desperate measure to minimize the shock and buy time, so I don’t buy the numbers until they lift this lock down which is inevitable.
CNBC picks up CureVac story. One of CureVac’s investors (private company) is Bill Gates, who just stepped down from the Board of his Foundation yesterday!
Possible conflict of interest.
Fat hurts wrote:
Here is the reason we are going to be like Italy instead of like China or South Korea:
WE HAVE NO PLAN!!!!
There is no coherent plan to contain this virus in the United States. "Run and hide" is not a plan.
Of course, we have a plan. At least President Trump does.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/487623-trump-calls-for-national-day-of-prayer-to-monitor-online-service