We understand the difference between deaths from the flu and from the coronavirus.
Do you understand that the stock market has crashed because of fears of the economic impact of people staying home to minimize the spread of this new virus?
Doesn’t matter if the fear of dying from this is rational, what matters is the reality of the actions being taken right now.
And the president is sending mixed signals.
Calling it a Democrat hoax while appointing Pence to oversee it.
agip wrote:
P wrote:
Daily Update
Daily case growth (%):
Mar 8: 16.7
Mar 9: 15.8
Mar 10: 15.3
Mar 11: 16.0
This means the total number of cases doubles every five days
Daily death growth (%):
Mar 8: 43.1
Mar 9: 34.0
Mar 10: 32.1
Mar 11: 31.0
Fatality Rate (Cumulative deaths/cases)
Mar 8: 2.4%
Mar 9: 2.7%
Mar 10: 3.0%
Mar 11: 3.2%
///
Q1: At the current rates of growth in cases, (16% daily), when will the number of worldwide cases outside of China exceed 100 million?
A1: COVID-19 cases worldwide will exceed 100 million in 52 days (on May 2) if the current growth rates continue.
Q2: If we wanted to keep the total cases below 1 Billion by the time a vaccine is widely available (assuming one becomes widely available - further assuming that the vaccine is available worldwide in 18 months), how low does the case growth rate (currently 16%) have to go?
A2: COVID-19 cases worldwide will remain below 1 Billion for the next 18 months only if the compound average daily growth rate goes below 1.85%
Q3: What level of economic disruption would it take to bring the current 16% down to 1.85%
A3: I don't know.
///
I make no prediction as to how these rates will evolve over time. But if folks could stop with the "But it's cold in Maine." posts that would be nice.
your numbers don't match up with those on worldometers so not sure what to say.
They have change in daily deaths
march 10 +37%
march 9 minus 13%
march 8 +117%
march7 minus 2%
march 6 +5%
but I'm starting to see your argument
Do you understand basic math concepts such as exponential growth and compound growth rates? If so, you could replicate my numbers exactly since we are using the same data source. I assure you that my numbers are accurate.
BTW - change in daily deaths is NOT what I am reporting. I am reporting change in total cases/deaths. When I say that the number is 16% that means that the average compound gain in cases has been 16% daily over the period over which I have specified that I am reporting. Do the numbers - it is simple.
Total non-China cases as of March 7 = 24,877
Total non-China cases as of March 11 = 45,028.
45,028/24,877 = 1.81
1.81^(1/4) = 1.16 = 16% daily growth rate
There is no mystery here. No slight of hand.
agip wrote:
P wrote:
WHO you gonna believe?
- - -
agip: "Seems that this thing is not a massive killer. "
WHO: "Fatality rate estimate has been revised upward from 2.0% to 3.4%
///
agip: "The number of deaths is neither alarming nor scary. "
WHO: "Our best estimate regarding the number of deaths is 3.4% of individuals contracting the virus will die. That is about 30x the fatality rate of the seasonal flu."
///
agip: " ok it's 12:40 est and the death stats are still miniscule except for iran, italy and china."
WHO: "316 people died today outside of China. This is the greatest daily loss of life outside China since this started and represents a jump of 28% in a single day from the day before. The previous high was yesterday. Before that the high was from the day before . . . Over the last 5 days the average jump in such deaths has been 31% per day. Such a growth rate corresponds to doubling roughly every 3 days."
///
agip: "italy data is in now.
Big drop in new cases, which is what you'd expect when you shut down the country.
yesterday 1800 new cases
today 1000 new cases. "
WHO: "Wrong. Italy new cases reached 2,313 in one day. Even after shutting down the country this represented a growth rate of 23% in total cases in one day.
///
agip: "it sure seems to me that this will be remembered as an illness that was contagious but not particularly deadly."
WHO: "We are now declaring COVID-19 to be a global pandemic."
///
agip: "I am a bit of a hack on this thing since I don't know much about the subject. "
WHO: "Then STFU"
- - -
WHO = World Health Organization
you are misrepresenting what I'm saying so I probably you should stop citing me by name.
Those are exact quotes. Perhaps you have misrepresented yourself?
The Gap is now 10.9 percentage points. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
P wrote:
There is no mystery here. No slight of hand.
The word is "sleight."
L L wrote:
We understand the difference between deaths from the flu and from the coronavirus.
Do you understand that the stock market has crashed because of fears of the economic impact of people staying home to minimize the spread of this new virus?
Doesn’t matter if the fear of dying from this is rational, what matters is the reality of the actions being taken right now.
And the president is sending mixed signals.
Calling it a Democrat hoax while appointing Pence to oversee it.
Yeah, I'm not even going to respond to Sally directly on this one. Not my job to educate the dumb.
voted 3rd party before wrote:
Yosinglerct wrote:
Do you think this is funny somehow?
Apparently homophobia is OK for some progressives, I guess. Or moderates.
Yeah. I’ve realized that he is just a troll posing as Dem. Calling a group of African-Americans in a photo “trumpanzees,” wishing death to someone, and now this. Only troll-like activity. Back on the ignore troll list.
p.n. wrote:
P wrote:
There is no mystery here. No slight of hand.
The word is "sleight."
Thanks! I honestly appreciate the correction.
Cheers
P wrote:
agip wrote:
your numbers don't match up with those on worldometers so not sure what to say.
They have change in daily deaths
march 10 +37%
march 9 minus 13%
march 8 +117%
march7 minus 2%
march 6 +5%
but I'm starting to see your argument
Do you understand basic math concepts such as exponential growth and compound growth rates? If so, you could replicate my numbers exactly since we are using the same data source. I assure you that my numbers are accurate.
BTW - change in daily deaths is NOT what I am reporting. I am reporting change in total cases/deaths. When I say that the number is 16% that means that the average compound gain in cases has been 16% daily over the period over which I have specified that I am reporting. Do the numbers - it is simple.
Total non-China cases as of March 7 = 24,877
Total non-China cases as of March 11 = 45,028.
45,028/24,877 = 1.81
1.81^(1/4) = 1.16 = 16% daily growth rate
There is no mystery here. No slight of hand.
Post the raw numbers.
P wrote:
agip wrote:
you are misrepresenting what I'm saying so I probably you should stop citing me by name.
Those are exact quotes. Perhaps you have misrepresented yourself?
yeah I'm not feeling so good about my previous posts.
I don't know and I should probably not give too many opinions on the subject. I'll try to stop.
But on the other hand we should all read about swine flu and other pandemics and understand that using Spanish Flu as a standard rather than Swine Flu as a standard tells something about human fear.
You did a good job poking at me - good job.
“Russian Trolls Call Virus Hoax, Demand To Re-Elect Trump”
Yosinglerct wrote:
P wrote:
Do you understand basic math concepts such as exponential growth and compound growth rates? If so, you could replicate my numbers exactly since we are using the same data source. I assure you that my numbers are accurate.
BTW - change in daily deaths is NOT what I am reporting. I am reporting change in total cases/deaths. When I say that the number is 16% that means that the average compound gain in cases has been 16% daily over the period over which I have specified that I am reporting. Do the numbers - it is simple.
Total non-China cases as of March 7 = 24,877
Total non-China cases as of March 11 = 45,028.
45,028/24,877 = 1.81
1.81^(1/4) = 1.16 = 16% daily growth rate
There is no mystery here. No slight of hand.
Post the raw numbers.
Thanks for the request.
Raw numbers are from here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/I pull numbers as late in the day as is practical for me for this purpose.
Here are the numbers behind the numbers.
Date; worldwide cases; China cases; worldwide deaths; China deaths
Mar 7; 105,529; 80,652; 3,562; 3,070
Mar 8; 109,723; 80,703; 3,802; 3,098
Mar 9; 114,078; 80,739; 4,004; 3,120
Mar 10; 118,880; 80,761; 4,269; 3,136
Mar 11; 125,818; 80,790; 4,607; 3,158
All numbers cumulative since start of outbreak.
Daily numbers from late afternoon my time (CA). Small differences from official day-end numbers certainly exist but are of no consequence.
agip wrote:
yeah I'm not feeling so good about my previous posts.
I don't know and I should probably not give too many opinions on the subject. I'll try to stop.
But on the other hand we should all read about swine flu and other pandemics and understand that using Spanish Flu as a standard rather than Swine Flu as a standard tells something about human fear.
You did a good job poking at me - good job.
You remain my favorite poster.
Cheers.
Yosinglerct wrote:
voted 3rd party before wrote:
Apparently homophobia is OK for some progressives, I guess. Or moderates.
Yeah. I’ve realized that he is just a troll posing as Dem. Calling a group of African-Americans in a photo “trumpanzees,” wishing death to someone, and now this. Only troll-like activity. Back on the ignore troll list.
Is that you trigged?
p.n. wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
Russian trolls are also helping on twitter
BINGO.
It would be helpful if more people would keep this in mind.
Based on the primary results, I guess the Russian twitter trolls haven’t had much success. Fabricated division.
Our closest ally are laughing at Trump and his cult.
Ciro wrote:
Our closest ally are laughing at Trump and his cult.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51840227
Our closest ally "is" laughing at your grammar.
P wrote:
Yosinglerct wrote:
Post the raw numbers.
Thanks for the request.
Raw numbers are from here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/I pull numbers as late in the day as is practical for me for this purpose.
Here are the numbers behind the numbers.
Date; worldwide cases; China cases; worldwide deaths; China deaths
Mar 7; 105,529; 80,652; 3,562; 3,070
Mar 8; 109,723; 80,703; 3,802; 3,098
Mar 9; 114,078; 80,739; 4,004; 3,120
Mar 10; 118,880; 80,761; 4,269; 3,136
Mar 11; 125,818; 80,790; 4,607; 3,158
All numbers cumulative since start of outbreak.
Daily numbers from late afternoon my time (CA). Small differences from official day-end numbers certainly exist but are of no consequence.
Thanks. I thought that’s where you pulled it. Do you think your % data is reliable or valid at this point?
Sally Vix wrote:
Our closest ally "is" laughing at your grammar.
And just yesterday to spelled 5'2" as 5. 2.
Yosinglerct wrote:
P wrote:
Thanks for the request.
Raw numbers are from here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/I pull numbers as late in the day as is practical for me for this purpose.
Here are the numbers behind the numbers.
Date; worldwide cases; China cases; worldwide deaths; China deaths
Mar 7; 105,529; 80,652; 3,562; 3,070
Mar 8; 109,723; 80,703; 3,802; 3,098
Mar 9; 114,078; 80,739; 4,004; 3,120
Mar 10; 118,880; 80,761; 4,269; 3,136
Mar 11; 125,818; 80,790; 4,607; 3,158
All numbers cumulative since start of outbreak.
Daily numbers from late afternoon my time (CA). Small differences from official day-end numbers certainly exist but are of no consequence.
Thanks. I thought that’s where you pulled it. Do you think your % data is reliable or valid at this point?
It is up to you if "you think" the data not reliable to provide a link to what "you think" is reliable. Otherwise, you are simply trolling the way Sally does .... refusing to believe data because of the Trumpian scientific method of "gut feel."