Down goes the Dow

agip wrote:

I listened to the David Kelley (JPM) conf call yesterday. he tried to be reassuring, saying that the US was nowhere near recession, that China was a financial/paper problem, not an economic crisis, that we aren't vulnerable t china slowdown, the chinese eeconomy is decellerating but not falling off a cliff, in teh US we have a new positive in the higher government spending after it had been flat for years, housing is fine, consumer spending is fine...hard to see a place were the US economy will fail. Everything is going along pretty well.

Valuations are fine....

You could have said, and people like him did say exactly the same thing in early 2008.

Maserati wrote:

coach d wrote:

I wonder when the wizards of wall street are going to realize that all that money people are not spending on oil/gas/energy they can spend on other things. The market goes up as soon as oil stabilizes, and managers need to get off this obsession with declining oil being a negative. Yes the market is a little undervalued if oil stabilizes or people stop thinking about it all the time.

Savings on gas are way more than consumed by increased medical insurance costs, and increased property tax/local fees, or rents.

hah

um er this is a wild guess - you have no idea if this is true

Aristotle of LRC wrote:

agip wrote:

I listened to the David Kelley (JPM) conf call yesterday. he tried to be reassuring, saying that the US was nowhere near recession, that China was a financial/paper problem, not an economic crisis, that we aren't vulnerable t china slowdown, the chinese eeconomy is decellerating but not falling off a cliff, in teh US we have a new positive in the higher government spending after it had been flat for years, housing is fine, consumer spending is fine...hard to see a place were the US economy will fail. Everything is going along pretty well.

Valuations are fine....

You could have said, and people like him did say exactly the same thing in early 2008.

yeah I hear you

he addressed that. His thesis is that to knock down the stock market seriously you need a recession

He named four types of recessions, per history:

Financial Crisis

Inventory build

one over extended sector

fed tightening

He asked if any of these were fulfilled today. Can we name one of these four that is on the radar?

his answer was no.

Do you disagree?

I don't know what he would have said in 2007 tho.

That's correct, it is simply an "educated guess".

I saw somewhere that the average household "saved" $550 on gas in 2015.

Somewhere else I read that the MMI increased $1,456 in 2015.

Add some natural gas savings to the $550, and it is still less than $1,456 in all probability.

And don't even get me started on what the figures will be in 2016. WAY worse.

And that doesn't include the increases in property taxes and local levies, and fees.

You be the judge. I stopped overthinking things a long time ago, at the same time as I stopped underthinking them, as some here seem to do.

Try to keep up wrote:

Real K5 wrote:

Down, down, down.

Dow soon to fall below 16k

Actually it's up today.

Nope. It has gone below 16k as we all suspected it would. Well, except maybe for you.

Check the date stamp on those messages, bucko.

In 2000 and 2008 the market went down in advance of the recession.

Why shouldn't i buy a stock that tries to mirror the cost of oil? Prices cannot stay this low forever.

S&P 500 below August/September low.

Oh no, say it isn't so!

I'm a poet, and I know it.

My feet show it.

They're Longfellows.

Dow down 520 pts.

Watch for falling prices!

Also agip, wasn't it you who was excited about retail sales in 2015? I may be wrong, but I remember that I was sour on it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-15/retail-sales-in-u-s-decrease-to-end-weakest-year-since-2009

"People" just don't have money to spend. Credit cards maxxed, HELOC's run their course, take-home pay totally stagnant or going backwards, aging cars requiring more repairs, medical insurance and expenses out of control, etc.

It's not good. As Igy might say, where will the blame be placed this time? On the weather?

Today's is a BIG move, down over 500 and still going down. Although the day is not over, it is almost sure to end up in the red.

Surprisingly quiet in this thread, considering the magnitude of the week, capped off by the magnitude of the day so far.

hmmm, wonder what volumes are...

Looks like volumes are there

ok, VIX is 30, I'm buying

lmao seriously? Someone else just called me and told me he was buying at VIX30.

We will see if my guess is vindicated and if the day closes above 16k

Maserati wrote:

Also agip, wasn't it you who was excited about retail sales in 2015? I may be wrong, but I remember that I was sour on it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-15/retail-sales-in-u-s-decrease-to-end-weakest-year-since-2009

"People" just don't have money to spend. Credit cards maxxed, HELOC's run their course, take-home pay totally stagnant or going backwards, aging cars requiring more repairs, medical insurance and expenses out of control, etc.

It's not good. As Igy might say, where will the blame be placed this time? On the weather?

Today's is a BIG move, down over 500 and still going down. Although the day is not over, it is almost sure to end up in the red.

well you can pretend that consumers are tapped out, but the numbers show nothing like that.

Consumer debt service is at historical lows - they have very low debt burdens.

Holiday spending was up 3% - not great, but not bad either.

wages are going up 2.5% per year. Not great, not bad either.

"While average hourly earnings were flat in December, they were sharply higher than a year earlier and rose at a 2.5 per cent annual rate in the fourth quarter, according to Reuters calculations of Labor Department data released on Friday."

Maser you are such a mix of "I know everything and am a very sophisticated guy" and "I make up a lot of stuff and don't really know what I am talking about"

You haven't registered your name, so maybe there are 3 or 4 Masers out there.

Maserati wrote:

We will see if my guess is vindicated and if the day closes above 16k

Looking more like it will approach 15k.

Down to 15,852 as of 1:00 PM

Try to keep up wrote:

Check the date stamp on those messages, bucko.

So when I wrote it will soon be under 16k two days ago and now it is you spin this as my not being right how exactly?

By calling me bucko?