Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

agip wrote:

the kicker here is the 15% threshold...if you don't get 15% of the vote you get zero delegates. It's possible that the only people getting delegates in many states are bernie and biden. If that happens, everyone will quit the day after super tuesday. Except bernie and biden.

which might mean bernie has a big lead after super tuesday but then the moderate vote finally lines up behind one person (biden) and he spends all spring catching up slowly. Then we get to the convention with neither having 50% but biden catching up.

cat 5 merdestorm

Ah, yes, the long hoped-for moderate lane consolidation...there is a lot of evidence that shows this to be very, very unlikely:

L L wrote:

I missed it.

Did they discuss the deficit and foreign relations at all?

Or was it the same as every other debate?

I didn't listen to the whole thing but it was almost all news headline driven - Bberg's women problems, bernie's socialism problems, pete's policing problems, etc. And warren had a lecture for each of them. Although she softballed bernie - she clearly wants to be his Veep.

there was a generic 'why are you qualified to be CinC' question. Not sure if there were more foreign affairs questions.

moderates suck wrote:

agip wrote:

the kicker here is the 15% threshold...if you don't get 15% of the vote you get zero delegates. It's possible that the only people getting delegates in many states are bernie and biden. If that happens, everyone will quit the day after super tuesday. Except bernie and biden.

which might mean bernie has a big lead after super tuesday but then the moderate vote finally lines up behind one person (biden) and he spends all spring catching up slowly. Then we get to the convention with neither having 50% but biden catching up.

cat 5 merdestorm

Ah, yes, the long hoped-for moderate lane consolidation...there is a lot of evidence that shows this to be very, very unlikely:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-establishment-cant-bank-on-moderate-voters-consolidating-against-sanders/

I withdrew that post.

L L wrote:

I missed it.

Did they discuss the deficit and foreign relations at all?

Or was it the same as every other debate?

Is there every any substance at these debates? The public is looking for entertainment, not serious discourse. People are picking the one they like the most and that they feel has momentum. Warren, despite being most qualified is neither likable enough nor exciting. Why would we expect this to work any differently?

agip wrote:

L L wrote:

I missed it.

Did they discuss the deficit and foreign relations at all?

Or was it the same as every other debate?

I didn't listen to the whole thing but it was almost all news headline driven - Bberg's women problems, bernie's socialism problems, pete's policing problems, etc. And warren had a lecture for each of them. Although she softballed bernie - she clearly wants to be his Veep.

there was a generic 'why are you qualified to be CinC' question. Not sure if there were more foreign affairs questions.

What do you think voters in SC want to hear? About policy and foreign affairs, or drama/simple stuff?

Trollminator wrote:

agip wrote:

I didn't listen to the whole thing but it was almost all news headline driven - Bberg's women problems, bernie's socialism problems, pete's policing problems, etc. And warren had a lecture for each of them. Although she softballed bernie - she clearly wants to be his Veep.

there was a generic 'why are you qualified to be CinC' question. Not sure if there were more foreign affairs questions.

What do you think voters in SC want to hear? About policy and foreign affairs, or drama/simple stuff?

yeah that's the question - what is the point of the debates? To make money for the network? Public service to help the electorate make its choice? To entertain?

I certainly wish the news people stepped up and forced some dignity on the situation. Debating has nothing to do with governing so the whole thing is stupid.

Sanders is not a Democrat. Outsider.

Trollminator wrote:

People are picking the one they like the most and that they feel has momentum. Warren, despite being most qualified is neither likable enough nor exciting. Why would we expect this to work any differently?

She is far and away the best candidate in my opinion.

I have no idea why people say she is not likeable. She is quite sincere, warm, and engaging.

moderates suck wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

People are picking the one they like the most and that they feel has momentum. Warren, despite being most qualified is neither likable enough nor exciting. Why would we expect this to work any differently?

She is far and away the best candidate in my opinion.

I have no idea why people say she is not likeable. She is quite sincere, warm, and engaging.

she's always lecturing and blaming. Not presidential.

Yosingleryx wrote:

Sanders is not a Democrat. Outsider.

Bloomberg is not a Democrat. Outsider.

jesseriley wrote:

I think the consensus was no one did particularly well, so bernie’s retaining his advantage.

I find a contradictions in Bernie.

His voting record on gun control and immigration reform are a turn off for me. Two big progressive issues.

With all the polls coming out lately and being used for the Dems as the barometer for which to decide who could take on Trump, it's worth noting that the more specific polls (state by state, candidate vs candidate, etc) were actually the most inaccurate and/or biased against Trump in 2016.

Found some old data lying around about how much the state by state polls were off:

Missouri- Had Trump winning by 11.0, with the largest gap being 15. He won by 19.1!

So an 8.1 swing for Trump.

Wisconsin- Not a single poll ever had Trump even tying HRC. The average on RCP was 6.5 for HRC. He won by 0.8.

So a 7.3 swing for Trump.

Minnesota- HRC always had 6-12 points on Trump. She won by 1.5.

So a 7.0 swing toward Trump. (If Gary Johnson doesn't run, Trump likely wins the state.)

Iowa- Trump averaged 3.0 over HRC. He won by 9.5.

So 6.5 swing for Trump.

Ohio- Had Trump winning by 3.5. He won by 8.0.

So 5.5 swing for Trump.

Michigan- Always had HRC up by at least 5.0, and usually closer to 10.0. Trump won by 0.2.

So let's say 6-9 swing for Trump.

Pennsylvania- Same as Michigan. Except Trump won by 1.2.

So another 5-6 swing for Trump.

North Carolina- Only had Trump winning with a very late surge by 1.0, after being down consistently 2-4 for months. He won by 3.2.

So a 2.7 swing for Trump.

So, put faith in what you wish, but don't be shocked if the results are similar this time around.

agip wrote:

moderates suck wrote:

She is far and away the best candidate in my opinion.

I have no idea why people say she is not likeable. She is quite sincere, warm, and engaging.

she's always lecturing and blaming. Not presidential.

Are you an actual real person?

Or are you just a caricature posting for laughs?

I find it difficult to believe that there is a real person so lacking in self awareness.

moderates suck wrote:

agip wrote:

she's always lecturing and blaming. Not presidential.

Are you an actual real person?

Or are you just a caricature posting for laughs?

I find it difficult to believe that there is a real person so lacking in self awareness.

I've been saying that for YEARS about him. Even when he changed his named after the election to Eric A Blair for some odd reason, his posts were always so silly. there's not a lot of original or critical thought going on there. It's read, regurgitate, repeat.

I agree with your points except the part in bold.

The right will not kick and scream under Bernie as much as Obama. And the reason is as plain as the nose on his face. (More precisely, the color of that nose)

Good post. This time around, Trump will win by even larger margins. If Bernie is the nominee, the Dems will suffer an absolute blowout

Yosingleryx wrote:

Sanders is not a Democrat. Outsider.

Trump is not a republican. He has dictator dreams.

semsurrrrr wrote:

Good post. This time around, Trump will win by even larger margins. If Bernie is the nominee, the Dems will suffer an absolute blowout

Hitler v2, Trump, ain't winning anything except being locked up at the end of Jan 2021.

Dictator Trump wrote:

semsurrrrr wrote:

Good post. This time around, Trump will win by even larger margins. If Bernie is the nominee, the Dems will suffer an absolute blowout

Hitler v2, Trump, ain't winning anything except being locked up at the end of Jan 2021.

Screencap what I said.