We = You and Sally. Both of you don't know anything.
We = You and Sally. Both of you don't know anything.
Rigged by Trump wrote:
We = You and Sally. Both of you don't know anything.
We both know that Crazy Bernie will not defeat Trump.
Trumpanzees are stuck in the past, with the same old memes & trolls & hats. Same old hope that the russian cavalry will ride in & win the election for them. Same weight gain & pallor from sitting in front of their screens.
Just like trump himself. Nobody’s fooled anymore.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Rigged by Trump wrote:
We = You and Sally. Both of you don't know anything.
We both know that Crazy Bernie will not defeat Trump.
I will post this weekly....
To say he has no shot is ignorant.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.htmlThe trend shows me that: 1. He's hitting 50% in many polls, which is a marker of importance when a good 5% will be undecided. 2. He is trending up while Trump is maintaining that 45% mark where he lives and breathes.
In the general Trump will get no more than 45% of the popular vote and will lose big.
Alan
Runningart2004 wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
We both know that Crazy Bernie will not defeat Trump.
I will post this weekly....
To say he has no shot is ignorant.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.htmlThe trend shows me that: 1. He's hitting 50% in many polls, which is a marker of importance when a good 5% will be undecided. 2. He is trending up while Trump is maintaining that 45% mark where he lives and breathes.
In the general Trump will get no more than 45% of the popular vote and will lose big.
Alan
Curious. What did the polls look like for Dem and Repub in March 2016.
Like I said. It’s way to early to rely on polls. We just have opinions at this point.
Runningart2004 wrote:
In the general Trump will get no more than 45% of the popular vote and will lose big.
Alan
In 2016 he got 46.1% of the popular vote.
I recognize that he could drop to 45% this time, and also lose; I seriously doubt that he'll "lose big."
Uhh, yeah . . . wrote:
Runningart2004 wrote:
In the general Trump will get no more than 45% of the popular vote and will lose big.
Alan
In 2016 he got 46.1% of the popular vote.
I recognize that he could drop to 45% this time, and also lose; I seriously doubt that he'll "lose big."
Trump will need a lot of help from Russia to reach 45%. That is Trump's magic number to declare a national emergency and cancel the presidential results for November ... his loss. Trump will claim that Russia helped Sanders win and that is why he must cancel the election.
Runningart2004 wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
We both know that Crazy Bernie will not defeat Trump.
I will post this weekly....
To say he has no shot is ignorant.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.htmlThe trend shows me that: 1. He's hitting 50% in many polls, which is a marker of importance when a good 5% will be undecided. 2. He is trending up while Trump is maintaining that 45% mark where he lives and breathes.
In the general Trump will get no more than 45% of the popular vote and will lose big.
Alan
Your self ban is coming.
Trump is a -180 favorite to win (the highest this election season.)
https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures...And people who gamble are able to predict the future, ha ha.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Runningart2004 wrote:
I will post this weekly....
To say he has no shot is ignorant.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.htmlThe trend shows me that: 1. He's hitting 50% in many polls, which is a marker of importance when a good 5% will be undecided. 2. He is trending up while Trump is maintaining that 45% mark where he lives and breathes.
In the general Trump will get no more than 45% of the popular vote and will lose big.
Alan
Your self ban is coming.
Trump is a -180 favorite to win (the highest this election season.)
https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures
I’d trust oddsmakers more than polls, but as late as 11/1/16 oddsmakers had Trump at +190. +200 on 3/4/16.
I wouldn’t bet the house yet.
Yosingleryx wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Your self ban is coming.
Trump is a -180 favorite to win (the highest this election season.)
https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futuresI’d trust oddsmakers more than polls, but as late as 11/1/16 oddsmakers had Trump at +190. +200 on 3/4/16.
I wouldn’t bet the house yet.
Plus, the reason Trumps odds are so good right now is that he is assured to be in the general election (unless he fvcks up-which is likely). No Dem is guaranteed a spot in the general yet. If the is an 60% chance they win the Dem nominee and 60% they win against Trump. Trumps odds to win still may be higher.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Runningart2004 wrote:
I will post this weekly....
To say he has no shot is ignorant.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.htmlThe trend shows me that: 1. He's hitting 50% in many polls, which is a marker of importance when a good 5% will be undecided. 2. He is trending up while Trump is maintaining that 45% mark where he lives and breathes.
In the general Trump will get no more than 45% of the popular vote and will lose big.
Alan
Your self ban is coming.
Trump is a -180 favorite to win (the highest this election season.)
https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures
What was the betting line the morning of the 2016 election? Yea, we can play this game all day.
He hasn't left that 43-46% approval realm for a long time. Thats where he lives. The polls also show his support around that same 43-46% against EVERY Dem candidate. He is LOSING to EVERYONE...Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar...it's really sad.
He thinks he can win with the same 46% he won with in 2016. Its already been explained how he wont simply on changing demographics alone.
As far as incumbents go he is a good 8-10% swing in the wrong direction. At this point in 2012 Obama was leading Romney by 5ish%. In 2004 Bush and Kerry were close at this stage but no one polling 50%.
4 out of the 6 latest polls on RCP show Sanders with 50% or higher. The tight spread vs previous incumbent elections shows you that there are few undecideds.
Trump even trails Warren...Buttigeig....Klobuchar....Bloomberg...Biden.....he would even trail himself if he could.
Its over. Your party is responsible for allowing someone like Sanders to be president. Congratulations liberal!
Alan
Though the markets have skidded for a day or two, I seriously doubt that this is the long-anticipated "Trump Slump." I don't see that happening before late 2021, at the earliest--regardless of who is president then.
Just as President Trump's tariffs took some of the steam out of the economy--not his intention, I'm sure!--and kept it from overheating and crashing, so I think the coronavirus scare will help correct what many economists see as a serious overvaluing (by P/E ratio, anyway) of the market.
Dropping a few, even several, thousand points will not necessarily be a sign of doom. As someone said above, the fundamentals of the economy have not changed and the indexes will likely recover. The President continues to have what seems like a charmed economic life.
All that said, I personally think there is noticeable weakness in some of those fundamentals. I thought that for quite a while before the whole coronavirus thing, but I could be wrong in my assessment of the U.S. economy...which I've thought has been teetering for months. Or maybe we've been experiencing another round of the "irrational exuberance" that Alan Greenspan talked about, back in the 90s.
Anyway:
Runningart2004 wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Your self ban is coming.
Trump is a -180 favorite to win (the highest this election season.)
https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futuresWhat was the betting line the morning of the 2016 election? Yea, we can play this game all day.
He hasn't left that 43-46% approval realm for a long time. Thats where he lives. The polls also show his support around that same 43-46% against EVERY Dem candidate. He is LOSING to EVERYONE...Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar...it's really sad.
He thinks he can win with the same 46% he won with in 2016. Its already been explained how he wont simply on changing demographics alone.
As far as incumbents go he is a good 8-10% swing in the wrong direction. At this point in 2012 Obama was leading Romney by 5ish%. In 2004 Bush and Kerry were close at this stage but no one polling 50%.
4 out of the 6 latest polls on RCP show Sanders with 50% or higher. The tight spread vs previous incumbent elections shows you that there are few undecideds.
Trump even trails Warren...Buttigeig....Klobuchar....Bloomberg...Biden.....he would even trail himself if he could.
Its over. Your party is responsible for allowing someone like Sanders to be president. Congratulations liberal!
Alan
I've noticed all of the Dem candidates out poll Trump by about the same margin which means the potential nominee's policies are somewhat irrelevant it's really going to be Trump vs not Trump. He'll bring out the vote on both sides.
Runningart2004 wrote:
[Trump] thinks he can win with the same 46% he won with in 2016. [It's] already been explained how he [won't] simply on changing demographics alone.
Alan
Only if those "changing demographics" are reflected in actual attendance at the polls.
President Trump's hard-core supporters are fully aware of what's at stake in this election and will turn out in droves. They feel they have an enormous amount to lose.
Whether the anti-Trump folks will have the same level of motivation is *the* key question IMO this November.
Runningart2004 wrote:
He hasn't left that 43-46% approval realm for a long time. Thats where he lives. The polls also show his support around that same 43-46% against EVERY Dem candidate. He is LOSING to EVERYONE...Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar...it's really sad.
Believing in such a thing as "the polls" shows you don't really understand how they work. More than half of them cooked up for PR. Fewer than half have the historical data to make meaningful turnout prediction, and those that do still fail to take into account the very obvious differences between now and the past. Single state polls are the least reliable of all, especially the one-off studies done by universities.
The only polls that are really useful are the trackers, particularly the dailies, which shows how things are tracking under whoever's model. The most reliable of these are the approval ratings, and Trump's have tracked almost exactly with Obama's during his first term. He's likely to win easily, like it or not.
You'll go whining about Russia, probably. Putin made you fool yourself.
Bad Wigins wrote:
Runningart2004 wrote:
He hasn't left that 43-46% approval realm for a long time. Thats where he lives. The polls also show his support around that same 43-46% against EVERY Dem candidate. He is LOSING to EVERYONE...Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar...it's really sad.
Believing in such a thing as "the polls" shows you don't really understand how they work. More than half of them cooked up for PR. Fewer than half have the historical data to make meaningful turnout prediction, and those that do still fail to take into account the very obvious differences between now and the past. Single state polls are the least reliable of all, especially the one-off studies done by universities.
The only polls that are really useful are the trackers, particularly the dailies, which shows how things are tracking under whoever's model. The most reliable of these are the approval ratings, and Trump's have tracked almost exactly with Obama's during his first term. He's likely to win easily, like it or not.
You'll go whining about Russia, probably. Putin made you fool yourself.
I mean if you keep telling yourself it's true then it must be true.
To say they have had similar polling is just 1000% false....
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_vs_president_obama_job_approval.htmlAlan
Yeah, about that... wrote:
Yeah, about that... wrote:
While this is likely true, I have close relations who are fully aware that the foundations of the economy are weak, and who find DJT personally distasteful--but will nevertheless vote for him, if they vote for anybody (and they *will* vote, because they consider it a citizen's duty).
For this segment, abortion is make-or-break. We can argue with them all we want; they will never vote for a Democrat because of the issue. They sometimes try to defend Trump's record, but they know he's a liar, did wrong in Ukraine, and so on--they're not idiots. But they also know he seems to be "pro-life" and that all the Dems are not. That's enough for them.
I might add that these folks are religious, but they have been presented with, and accepted, these facts:
--there is no "moment" of conception;
--the Bible and "G-d" not only are not against abortion, but actually provide an alleged formula to cause it (and mandate the formula's use in certain situations);
--when Roe was first handed down, many religious institutions and figures, including a former president of the Southern Baptist Conference, thought it was fine.
They do understand all that--again, they're not idiots--but they personally consider abortion to be murder and will vote for someone who's installing the judges that they think/hope will end the practice. For them, and I suspect millions of others, this one issue supersedes all the rest.
What do those folks think about the thousands of frozen zygotes (fertilized eggs). Are they people too that need to be saved and implanted?
truth b told2 wrote:
Yeah, about that... wrote:
I might add that these folks are religious, but they have been presented with, and accepted, these facts:
--there is no "moment" of conception;
--the Bible and "G-d" not only are not against abortion, but actually provide an alleged formula to cause it (and mandate the formula's use in certain situations);
--when Roe was first handed down, many religious institutions and figures, including a former president of the Southern Baptist Conference, thought it was fine.
They do understand all that--again, they're not idiots--but they personally consider abortion to be murder and will vote for someone who's installing the judges that they think/hope will end the practice. For them, and I suspect millions of others, this one issue supersedes all the rest.
What do those folks think about the thousands of frozen zygotes (fertilized eggs). Are they people too that need to be saved and implanted?
Some do think that IVF is immoral for just that reason. It results in discarded embryos that they consider to be humans.
This fool can do absolutely anything and the Repubs will back him. It’s really sad.