Yosinglerzy wrote:
agip wrote:
and your view is that he and Pelosi will pass anti-minority bills if elected? Do i have you correct?
Given his track record and the increasing power of the Executive branch over the last 20 years, he doesn’t need Pelosi.
It seems as though Bloomberg supporters are willing to overlook his bigotry in order to defeat an unlikeable opponent.
Sounds very 2016.
it is true that there are a few markers in BB's past that suggest he might try to work around congress.
agip wrote:
you and the people may be miserable with their awful American existence but that's a marginal viewpoint.
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Nine in 10 Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in their personal life, a new high in Gallup's four-decade trend. The latest figure bests the previous high of 88% recorded in 2003.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/284285/new-high-americans-satisfied-personal-life.aspx
You made a strong case for Trump 2020.
When people are satisfied with their lives, they tend to vote for the incumbent.
Forgotten Man wrote:
agip wrote:
you and the people may be miserable with their awful American existence but that's a marginal viewpoint.
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Nine in 10 Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in their personal life, a new high in Gallup's four-decade trend. The latest figure bests the previous high of 88% recorded in 2003.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/284285/new-high-americans-satisfied-personal-life.aspxYou made a strong case for Trump 2020.
When people are satisfied with their lives, they tend to vote for the incumbent.
yeah truth. I do think Trump will be re-elected, although it's 60/40 so not a strong view.
interestingly though, good times can also be an impetus for helping other people. The argument is that when people aren't struggling they can be more generous and less resentful of policies meant to help other people.
agip wrote:
BB's view is that NYC city taxes plus NY State taxes plus federal taxes were already basically punitive (true), and he thought furhter raising NYC taxes would chase out high earners.
He's not talking federal, he's not talking state. Local NYC taxes.
High earners pay a huge amount of NYC's budget. NYS has probably the highest taxes in the nation. Raising them further probably isn't a good idea.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2018/apr/12/marcus-molinaro/do-ny-residents-have-among-highest-tax-burdens-mol/
NYC is a different beast altogether. It needs to recognized that this is a central hub for creating zillionaires. The discussion of their "fair share" is a unique one.
Esterhazy wrote:
You are unwilling to look deep enough at what motivates voters who are skeptical about Bloomberg. This is why voters like you never took Hillary Clinton's vulnerability seriously enough. You can just dismiss the concern about Bloomberg's policies and his record if you like, but those voters and their concerns are still there. It's a huge voting block in rural America. It's a huge voting block among millennial voters, such as my children. You think they despise Bloomberg because he is successful. That's not true. They don't reject him because he is successful. They reject him because his putative success is not worth of being celebrated. A 25-year old farmer who my son works for in the summer put it well; "Bloomberg created an information infrastructure for Wall Street that ushered in the financialization of the economy and accelerated inequality--that's not something many working people see as a success to be celebrated." I agree with this young farmer. And about the Democratic black leaders who endorsed Bloomberg--their time is passing, just like Biden's time is passing. What has their neo-liberal policy done for working people? It has sent manufacturing jobs oversees, creating an under-class of people with great financial insecurity. Just because they are black does not mean they are any wiser about the failings of neoliberal Democrats than the Clintons and their ilk. But by all means, keep ignoring these critiques. You are probably doing fine under Trump. Just don't expect those of us who see through it all to congratulate you for your lack of perspicacity.
Agip's lack of self-awareness is totally amazing.
He never recognized H. Clinton's vulnerabilities as a candidate. He doesn't recognize Bloomberg shares many of those traits, although he also has his own vulnerabilities.
He keeps posting this theory that all the moderates will coalesce around a candidate, after being shown evidence multiple times that this is unlikely based on head-to-head polling.
He continued to post about Bernie Bros defecting costing Clinton the election, even though the evidence is that they acted like typical voters.
He continues to think moderates are more electable in 2020, despite the evidence being that Bernie does best in head-to-head polling. Which may not be definitive, but certainly doesn't support his narrative.
It's kind of sad, honestly.
agip wrote:
Forgotten Man wrote:
You made a strong case for Trump 2020.
When people are satisfied with their lives, they tend to vote for the incumbent.
yeah truth. I do think Trump will be re-elected, although it's 60/40 so not a strong view.
interestingly though, good times can also be an impetus for helping other people. The argument is that when people aren't struggling they can be more generous and less resentful of policies meant to help other people.
People were very satisfied with their lives when Bush Sr was the POTUS, but that didn't stop them from voting for Bill. I think Trump has created more serious problems than just a perception issue.
Yosinglerzy wrote:
agip wrote:
and your view is that he and Pelosi will pass anti-minority bills if elected? Do i have you correct?
Given his track record and the increasing power of the Executive branch over the last 20 years, he doesn’t need Pelosi.
It seems as though Bloomberg supporters are willing to overlook his bigotry in order to defeat an unlikeable opponent.
Sounds very 2016.
Sorry - BB is no HRC. Comparisons to 2016 are idiotic.
Trollminator wrote:
agip wrote:
yeah truth. I do think Trump will be re-elected, although it's 60/40 so not a strong view.
interestingly though, good times can also be an impetus for helping other people. The argument is that when people aren't struggling they can be more generous and less resentful of policies meant to help other people.
People were very satisfied with their lives when Bush Sr was the POTUS, but that didn't stop them from voting for Bill. I think Trump has created more serious problems than just a perception issue.
Bush1 was running for reelection during a recession.
Ciro wrote:
Hard for actual conservatives with principles to swallow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSSXQQ09OPM
Are such people still watching FOX?
so excited wrote:
Esterhazy wrote:
You are unwilling to look deep enough at what motivates voters who are skeptical about Bloomberg. This is why voters like you never took Hillary Clinton's vulnerability seriously enough. You can just dismiss the concern about Bloomberg's policies and his record if you like, but those voters and their concerns are still there. It's a huge voting block in rural America. It's a huge voting block among millennial voters, such as my children. You think they despise Bloomberg because he is successful. That's not true. They don't reject him because he is successful. They reject him because his putative success is not worth of being celebrated. A 25-year old farmer who my son works for in the summer put it well; "Bloomberg created an information infrastructure for Wall Street that ushered in the financialization of the economy and accelerated inequality--that's not something many working people see as a success to be celebrated." I agree with this young farmer. And about the Democratic black leaders who endorsed Bloomberg--their time is passing, just like Biden's time is passing. What has their neo-liberal policy done for working people? It has sent manufacturing jobs oversees, creating an under-class of people with great financial insecurity. Just because they are black does not mean they are any wiser about the failings of neoliberal Democrats than the Clintons and their ilk. But by all means, keep ignoring these critiques. You are probably doing fine under Trump. Just don't expect those of us who see through it all to congratulate you for your lack of perspicacity.
Agip's lack of self-awareness is totally amazing.
He never recognized H. Clinton's vulnerabilities as a candidate. He doesn't recognize Bloomberg shares many of those traits, although he also has his own vulnerabilities.
He keeps posting this theory that all the moderates will coalesce around a candidate, after being shown evidence multiple times that this is unlikely based on head-to-head polling.
He continued to post about Bernie Bros defecting costing Clinton the election, even though the evidence is that they acted like typical voters.
He continues to think moderates are more electable in 2020, despite the evidence being that Bernie does best in head-to-head polling. Which may not be definitive, but certainly doesn't support his narrative.
It's kind of sad, honestly.
this is all so gray area mushy mushy that I can't even respond.
agip wrote:
all this is pretty silly tho - Bernie is the nominee
Unless
1) bernie has another heart attack
or
2) three of the following drop out before Super Tuesday: BB, Joe, Pete, Amy.
I assume none of that will happen, so it's almost for sure going to be Bernie vs. Trump.
My own attitude is that I'm for whatever Dem is put forward.
Sanders needs to get to the convention with enough delegates to secure the nomination. The delegate leader won’t do. He wouldn’t survive the vote.
If Trump is re-elected other countries will need to implement a travel ban on Americans. They pose a clear risk to democracy.
Yosinglerzy wrote:
Given his track record and the increasing power of the Executive branch over the last 20 years, he doesn’t need Pelosi.
It seems as though Bloomberg supporters are willing to overlook his bigotry in order to defeat an unlikeable opponent.
Sounds very 2016.
Exactly. He did not need or have any sort of legislative authorization for either the huge increase of stop-and-frisk or the surveillance of Muslims. He just pulled the administrative levers...those levers are abundantly available at the federal level as we have seen.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
agip wrote:
all this is pretty silly tho - Bernie is the nominee
Unless
1) bernie has another heart attack
or
2) three of the following drop out before Super Tuesday: BB, Joe, Pete, Amy.
I assume none of that will happen, so it's almost for sure going to be Bernie vs. Trump.
My own attitude is that I'm for whatever Dem is put forward.
If you fools nominate Crazy Bernie, you just dug your own grave.
#Trumplandslide
KAG2020
You sound scared.
agip wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
People were very satisfied with their lives when Bush Sr was the POTUS, but that didn't stop them from voting for Bill. I think Trump has created more serious problems than just a perception issue.
Bush1 was running for reelection during a recession.
While this is true, it was not that bad back then. I think what got him more were his lack of clear policies. He was under appreciated by the public and failed to take advantage of the visibility of holding office. While 2020 is a different time and trump certainly keeps himself in the headlines with chronic lying and boasting, he has neglected half the country completely. How many Dems will vote for trump in 2020?
Yosinglerzy wrote:
agip wrote:
all this is pretty silly tho - Bernie is the nominee
Unless
1) bernie has another heart attack
or
2) three of the following drop out before Super Tuesday: BB, Joe, Pete, Amy.
I assume none of that will happen, so it's almost for sure going to be Bernie vs. Trump.
My own attitude is that I'm for whatever Dem is put forward.
Sanders needs to get to the convention with enough delegates to secure the nomination. The delegate leader won’t do. He wouldn’t survive the vote.
you seriously think the Dems would nominate someone who had fewer delegates than bernie?
I can't see that happening.
Yosinglerzy wrote:
Sanders needs to get to the convention with enough delegates to secure the nomination. The delegate leader won’t do. He wouldn’t survive the vote.
I think I agree with this.
I disagree with the FiveThirtyEight model, which shows no majority as the most likely outcome (something like 40 percent). Those guys are really smart but I just think something is profoundly off in their assumptions. I get that it is really, really hard to build a model to predict something that hasn't ever happened (a contested convention in the modern primary era) and there is surely a non-zero chance of that outcome, but I would bet heavily against it at 40%.
Yosinglerzy wrote:
agip wrote:
all this is pretty silly tho - Bernie is the nominee
Unless
1) bernie has another heart attack
or
2) three of the following drop out before Super Tuesday: BB, Joe, Pete, Amy.
I assume none of that will happen, so it's almost for sure going to be Bernie vs. Trump.
My own attitude is that I'm for whatever Dem is put forward.
Sanders needs to get to the convention with enough delegates to secure the nomination. The delegate leader won’t do. He wouldn’t survive the vote.
Populism rules - there will be a clear front runner well before the end
agip wrote:
this is all so gray area mushy mushy that I can't even respond.
There is no response necessary. Your record is all here and it speaks for itself.
Trollminator wrote:
agip wrote:
Bush1 was running for reelection during a recession.
While this is true, it was not that bad back then. I think what got him more were his lack of clear policies. He was under appreciated by the public and failed to take advantage of the visibility of holding office. While 2020 is a different time and trump certainly keeps himself in the headlines with chronic lying and boasting, he has neglected half the country completely. How many Dems will vote for trump in 2020?
yeah I guess.
The other variable is that Bill Clinton was a very, very, very good politician. People just liked him. People didn't really like Bush1. Politics is like that - based on personality. Do people like Bernie enough to overcome his baggage and the economy's strengths? We'll see.
I