MN Cross Country Predictions 2022

AAA State top 15 predictions
1. Noah Breker-Armstrong (will be back)
2. Sam Scott-Southwest
3. Nick Gilles-Minnetonka
4. Aidan Jones-Washburn
5. Andrew Casey-Lakeville North
6. Hamza Mohamed-Wayzata
7. Nolan Sutter-Chaska
8. Elliott McArthur-Mounds View
9. Daniel Mccolor-Wayzata
10. Adam Lueth-Jefferson
11. Bryce Stachewicz-Lakeville North
12. Robert Mechura-Roseville
13. Luke Williams-White Bear Lake
14. Will Weber-Wayzata
15. Cade Sanvik-Osseo

There are so many I didn’t mention that could easily crack top 15

Team predictions

1. Wayzata

2. Rosemount

3. Minnetonka

4. Lakeville North

5. Stillwater

6. Mounds view

7. Washburn

8. Jefferson

9. Eden Prarie

10. Roseville

Some bold predictions here, especially Lakeville North at 4. I have my reasons to believe they will not preform as well.

Boys AAA teams
1- Wayzata. No one is ever a lock. McMillan was out last race. Not sure if he will be back. If not, Kissell / Dietrick will need to close the gap on their 3rd to secure the title. They do have a low stick in Hamza and 2 more guys under 15:40.
2- Rosemount. Had 5 guys close together at sections with a 172 speed rating. The question is will a front runner emerge here. They could challenge for a state title. They have been getting closer to beating Lakeville North each time. I think they can beat them this time.
3- Lakeville North. Has a low stick in Casey. 2-4 did great at sectionals. 5th wasn’t very far back. Looking to make podium for the first time ever. Could challenge for a state title.
4- Minnetonka. Older Fries needs to be healthy and each scorer needs to close the gap on Westerlund to podium let alone win.
5- Stillwater. Has a solid 1-6. Beat Mounds View in the last 2 races.
6- Mounds View. Has a low stick in McArthur and solid 2-6 pack behind him.
7- Minneapolis Washburn. Qualified from a tough section. Has a solid 1-2-3. Their 4th did solid at sections, he just needs to be on again. Their 5th man is hanging in there.
8- Bloomington Jefferson. Has a low stick in Lueth. Solid 2-6 chase pack behind him. Every race starting from Griak they have shown they are capable of finishing this high.
9- Eden Prairie. Qualified out of a tough section, and has a solid 1-7 pack. Found a low stick in Will Ross at sections. This team is deep all the way through.
10- Roseville. Deep team with 2 low sticks.
11- Woodbury. Made state for the first time in a long while, from a tough section. Solid pack running team but no low stick. Lost to Roseville at conference though.
12- Lakeville South. Low stick in Starfield. Solid 2-7 group behind him.
13- Buffalo. Solid 1-4 group, with a low stick in MacHeel. 5th was pretty far back last race though.
14- Centennial. Doesn’t have much of a low stick. Good depth but not enough to be in contention. Senior-heavy team. They beat Blaine at sections.
15- Blaine. Solid low stick in Santiago. Good depth but not enough to be in contention
16- Bemidji. Talented 1-3, but their 4 and 5 were ways back at sections. Niemi (one of their scorers) was missing last race but needs to be back in shape for this team to not get last.

I like your posts but what is a low stick? Is there a high stick? I don’t get it. Where did the term come from?

AAA team predictions
1. Wayzata- Closest to a lock that you can get. If they run as they have recently they will win.
2. Rosemount- The pack is going to be very hard to beat again. We will see how they shake out in a larger field though.
3. Lakeville North-Casey and Stachewicz will put a low score on the board. They are also strong at 3-4. 5 needs to step up if they want to beat Rosemount.
4. Stillwater-The pack for Stillwateris very strong, have been performing great at big meets. I think they will upset Tonka.
5. Minnetonka-Big Fries will not recover in time. Their 4 and 5 are too weak to contend for the win or podium.
6. Mounds View-Strong 1 and 2, pretty deep behind them too.
Those are the contenders to win/podium.

Low stick is someone who constantly finishes up front in a race and scores low points for the team.

OK thanks. I am sure many others were not familiar with this lingo either.

Another thing that might hurt Stillwater is that I don’t see anyone on this team finishing in the top 25 at state this year. They have a good pack but they might finish in the 30s or 40s. But next year I do see Riniker and maybe Foote making the top 25 at state. Last year Foote was the fastest Stillwater nonsenior at state (they were missing Kilibarda and Degonda)

Yeah Minnetonka has 2 alternates ready but there considering not putting Ryan as one of the 7 runners in the state meet

Speaking of the St Olaf meet. has the the course ever been fast? It seems like a “Mid” course with the Gravel, and the back hill with all the roots. I don’t think anyone is dropping a huge PR at St Olaf and it’s kinda sad. But love it or hate it it’s kinda iconic (gale woods > Still. Olaf)

One interesting is that not only was Nybeck not varsity last year, but he also didn’t do track. Neither did the Ohe brothers who were their 6th and 7th. Read somewhere that all of them do Edina golf in the spring

I wonder how much these 3 guys not switching to track would affect Edina’s chances of winning state in XC in 2024 and making NXN that year. Because many people really step up during track, and for them, that carries over to XC. But I’m sure that summer running and sticking together with one another in races will be more important

Everyone is concerned about PRs nowadays. St. Olaf is a classic cross country course. Hills, grass, gravel, wood chips. A little bit of everything, I personally think St. Olaf is a great XC state course. It’s not only about time, but I do agree that Gale woods is better haha.

I would put Fries on the team just for his upside. I’d he is back to normal, they have a strong chance to contend strongly. If they put someone like Laninga in, he will not score. So I would take the risk anyway.

I’m sure Minnetonka will be hungrier to win state in 2024 than Edina will because Edina won it in 2018 but Tonka never won it. I don’t think Tonka ever won conference either. Jefferson won conference (it’s not a very strong one) before but never a state title either so they will probably be hungry too. Their freshman and sophomore classes are solid

Wayzata will be very hard to beat next year. But Minnetonka might still be pushing them more than people think they will next year (although without Gilles and Westerlund) since there are people who didn’t make their top 7 that might score for them next year.
Same goes for Southwest if they find a fifth. Wayzata loses their #1 but Minnetonka keeps their 1/2/3/6/7

But on the bright side, if they put Laninga in, next year Minnetonka won’t have Westerlund or Gilles but they are gonna surprise people since they will come back with 6, not 5 people with state meet experience. 2 fries, Laninga, Thomas, Barry, and Vos. Downing might score for them too. So they are gonna be insanely deep. 7-deep at least

This year seems to be more like a stepping stone for future years

Also saw somewhere that older Ohe was All State for golf so unlikely he will switch to track. We'll have to see though with younger Ohe and Nybeck. Would be especially good for Nybeck to carry over some momentum from xc to track.

Yeah I agree there’s really no loss, not running ryan. Putting in laninga in, who’s a 16:40s guy doesn’t change anything. Tonkas podium Potential is all in there top 5. the 6th and 7th aren’t really to close to helping the team. So yeah Run Ryan!

Any relation to the 2017 grad Zeke Lelinga? He started in 2015 when he was midpack JV but in 2016 he snagged the 25th all-state spot from Wayzata’s Buysse right at the line.