I think it’s safe to say that on the boys side, Wayzata is an easy pick to win state. They return 5 guys under 16 minutes, and another 16:13 guy who probably would have broken 16 minutes if he ran at RunningLane. Tully Runners has them ranked at #11 nationally which seems right. But they’re gonna need a front runner or 2 (something they lacked last year) if they wanna do really well nationally.
Second spot is up for grabs.
If there’s any team that would pose any kind of threat on Wayzata, it would be Lakeville North. They return 9:24, 9:41, 9:45, 9:51, and 4:13 guys. All are seniors. They’ve had essentially the same varsity team since 2020.
Other contenders for the second spot are Minnetonka (the team that made state for the first time since 1992). They are returning 5 guys from the 4th place team + some more really good track times.
Mounds View will also contend for the second spot after getting 3rd last year. They lose 1 senior but he was very key to the team.
Rosemount is also looking to contend for the second spot. They return 5 guys, and the guy who was only #7 on their team ran a 9:31, so he should be able to fill in nicely for the senior that scored.
Hopkins also has a shot to get 2nd. They didn’t go to state last year but return 4 of their top 5. Track season shows that they might be able to close the 4-5 gap. Southwest will have a hard time going back to state as they lose 3 guys including 2 scorers, and this team was only 5-deep. They do have some good incoming sophomores that could help the team.
Wayzata will be first at NXR, and Lakeville North, Mounds View, Minnetonka, Hopkins, and Rosemount all have a shot at second place at NXR. Some teams outside of MN that have a shot at second place at NXR include Williston ND, Iowa City High / Dowling Catholic IA, Millard West NE, and Stevens Point WI.