I think Ken Starr is trying to everyone to sleep.
Very sleepy voice.
I think Ken Starr is trying to everyone to sleep.
Very sleepy voice.
Fat hurts wrote:
The Irishman wrote:
You’re picking your favorite candidate and running with it against the best evidence we have. AOC announcing support at rallies in Queens isn’t how you win Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Florida collectively. Again many of Sanders and Warrens policies are particularly unpopular in those states. Trump will hammer those sound bytes to his benefit.
Respectfully your thesis is nonsense :) I’ll support any candidate ahead of Trump, you?
Yes. Like you, I'll support any candidate ahead of Tiny. In November, there is almost nobody who will vote based on policy positions. It's purely a vote for or against Tiny.
That's why my thesis is correct. It only matters which candidate can drive turnout. Bernie's supporters are clearly more excited and dedicated to do just that.
If it’s Sanders or Warren, Trumps script for Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania & Ohio writes itself. The fear of socialism, student loan forgiveness, reparations for slavery, free stuff writes itself.
It won’t be so easy against Biden and he knows, he knows to the point of getting impeached to try to take Biden down.
But hey you’ll get your friends out to vote and that’ll be good enough.
L L wrote:
If Bolton testifies that Trump directly told him he was holding Ukraine money until they publicly made accusations against the Bidens, do you really think that would get 20 Republicans to vote to convict?
It's probably politically better for Democrats that Republicans vote to not hear his testimony.
Nobody believes there is any chance he will be removed. It would be extremely harmful to the GOP and trump if Bolton provides his testimony under oath and they ignore him. There would be a serious split in the GOP and I believe some Rs would rather not vote than to acquit him. That would be the optimal outcome for Dems, as they know the GOP will shield trump at all cost and no matter how much evidence.
The Irishman wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/04/trump-rivals-biden-warren-and-sanders-in-2020-election-swing-states.htmlhttps://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/01/poll-of-great-lakes-voters-shows-good-news-for-joe-biden-bernie-sanders.htmlHillary/Democrats slept on these states the last time and paid the price, Trumps team identified an opportunity in these states and seized it.
All reasonable indications show Biden as the best bet in the states that will decide this election.
Polls also show a number of Warrens and Sanders policies as very unpopular. Policies like student loan forgiveness and reparations. Those policies will be hindrance to both candidates in those states, they won’t be for Biden because he doesn’t endorse those policies.
Many Bernie lovers are fanatics and idealists. But the swing states are not with them. No matter how much they want it so and believe in the Bernie dream, it won't happen now.
It's time to consolidate our efforts to take trump down.
Check out the other thread, “No russians forced anyone to vote, blah blah”, for some epic throwdowns by the libs.
Fat hurts wrote:
Treadhead wrote:
Bernie is not polling as well as Biden in the states I’ve mentioned in a presidential election.
Hillary is gone now and a presidential election in the six states that Trump flipped is not the same as the Democrat primaries.
Again, how Bernie and Biden poll head-to-head is not the relevant question. But even so, the margin is very close now in Wisconsin and Michigan as Bernie continues to surge. Bernie is also surging in Pennsylvania.
The real question is which candidate can excite the base in November. .
I'm not sure that's true.
the real question is which is better:
Bernie bringing the youth but alienating the moderates who won the House in 2018
or
Biden bringing the moderates who won the House in 2018 but alienating the youth.
It's more than just 'who excites the base.' The question is total votes. Getting two white women in suburban Milwaukee who usually vote R is twice as good as one really excited kid at Wisco.
AOC is a moderate? Ilhan Omar is a moderate? Do moderates say, “We’re gonna impeach the mo+herfvcker!” & then DO it?! We need moderates when moderates admit they have handed the country to trump & putin.
NO ONE on the left was fooled by trump & putin. Not one.
When it takes years to impeach an obvious criminal like trump, with no guarantee of removal, those are your moderates.
Trollminator wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
That's why my thesis is correct. It only matters which candidate can drive turnout. Bernie's supporters are clearly more excited and dedicated to do just that.
There is one serious element to consider though - the right might be able to mobilize anti-trumpers against the evil socialist agenda. There are many Rs who regret their trump vote and are likely to stay home, but with a little nudge and injection of fear will swallow their pride and vote for him again.
Maybe. I just don't think there are very many trumpers to be mobilized in that way.
agip wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Again, how Bernie and Biden poll head-to-head is not the relevant question. But even so, the margin is very close now in Wisconsin and Michigan as Bernie continues to surge. Bernie is also surging in Pennsylvania.
The real question is which candidate can excite the base in November. .
I'm not sure that's true.
the real question is which is better:
Bernie bringing the youth but alienating the moderates who won the House in 2018
or
Biden bringing the moderates who won the House in 2018 but alienating the youth.
It's more than just 'who excites the base.' The question is total votes. Getting two white women in suburban Milwaukee who usually vote R is twice as good as one really excited kid at Wisco.
I'll admit that it's hard to quantify. You might be right. I might be right.
And the wild card is always Russian hacking.
Fat hurts wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
There is one serious element to consider though - the right might be able to mobilize anti-trumpers against the evil socialist agenda. There are many Rs who regret their trump vote and are likely to stay home, but with a little nudge and injection of fear will swallow their pride and vote for him again.
Maybe. I just don't think there are very many trumpers to be mobilized in that way.
yeah, the classic conservatives who would vote for Biden but not Bernie or Trump is a small group but it exists. I doubt it's a big group but who knows.
The real swing vote is suburban women who voted for Trump and then the Dems in 2018. That's the big target and I really think asking them to vote to raise their taxes and outlaw their health insurance and welcome in all the woke PC issues the Dem left represents... might be a bridge too far for them.
Think about which Dem would appear best in a general election debate with Donald Trump. We know how Trump will appear. Would Bernie and Eliz be able to stay relatively moderate or are they unable to moderate their liberal/far-left views? Bernie did okay against Hillary but that was only for the nomination. How willing is he to moderate his socialististic views to satisfy those voters in middle America? The same for Warren. I think neither is willing to sacrifice their core hard-left views to appeal to those voters in the middle. Joe Biden, on the other hand, makes those voters in middle America very comfortable. They know what they will get with Uncle Joe. Bernie or Warren? So many moderate voters are really scared of what either of those might do.
agip wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Maybe. I just don't think there are very many trumpers to be mobilized in that way.
yeah, the classic conservatives who would vote for Biden but not Bernie or Trump is a small group but it exists. I doubt it's a big group but who knows.
The real swing vote is suburban women who voted for Trump and then the Dems in 2018. That's the big target and I really think asking them to vote to raise their taxes and outlaw their health insurance and welcome in all the woke PC issues the Dem left represents... might be a bridge too far for them.
It is not a small group at all. Donald Trump is a terrible person but I like his policies. I do not think he has committed impeachable offenses but if he really did I would vote for Biden in a heartbeat. I am NEVER voting for Bernie or Warren. I really believe there are many, many conservatives who feel the same as I.
the trumpist defense:
https://twitter.com/petersuderman/status/1221863464534102018?s=20
Sally Vix wrote:
agip wrote:
yeah, the classic conservatives who would vote for Biden but not Bernie or Trump is a small group but it exists. I doubt it's a big group but who knows.
The real swing vote is suburban women who voted for Trump and then the Dems in 2018. That's the big target and I really think asking them to vote to raise their taxes and outlaw their health insurance and welcome in all the woke PC issues the Dem left represents... might be a bridge too far for them.
It is not a small group at all. Donald Trump is a terrible person but I like his policies. I do not think he has committed impeachable offenses but if he really did I would vote for Biden in a heartbeat. I am NEVER voting for Bernie or Warren. I really believe there are many, many conservatives who feel the same as I.
well good on you, Sally, but I think people with your attitude are few. I mean look at Trump's approval within the R party: 90% and steady. They love him. LOVE HIM.
Sure some conservative Rs have left the party but really that can't be very many people.
But I'm guessing.
Sally Vix wrote:
Think about which Dem would appear best in a general election debate with Donald Trump. We know how Trump will appear. Would Bernie and Eliz be able to stay relatively moderate or are they unable to moderate their liberal/far-left views? Bernie did okay against Hillary but that was only for the nomination. How willing is he to moderate his socialististic views to satisfy those voters in middle America? The same for Warren. I think neither is willing to sacrifice their core hard-left views to appeal to those voters in the middle. Joe Biden, on the other hand, makes those voters in middle America very comfortable. They know what they will get with Uncle Joe. Bernie or Warren? So many moderate voters are really scared of what either of those might do.
Thing is that Biden has a strong grip on the moderate vote. For Bernie to get the nomination he has to promise crazy sh *t to woo the AOC crowd. He'll have to own it during the GE campaign, but I predict he would only go through the motions if elected. Even if he is serious, he still won't be King and even if the Democrats take back the Senate at least half of them are moderate and would never support anything wacky.
agip wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
It is not a small group at all. Donald Trump is a terrible person but I like his policies. I do not think he has committed impeachable offenses but if he really did I would vote for Biden in a heartbeat. I am NEVER voting for Bernie or Warren. I really believe there are many, many conservatives who feel the same as I.
well good on you, Sally, but I think people with your attitude are few. I mean look at Trump's approval within the R party: 90% and steady. They love him. LOVE HIM.
Sure some conservative Rs have left the party but really that can't be very many people.
But I'm guessing.
Agip, they don't really love him. Many don't like him at all. They detest the alternative. They detested Hillary in 2016. They would detest Warren or Bernie later this year. Again, they don't love him. Some do but I think the majority just detest the alternative, be it Bernie or Eliz. Biden is a comforting alternative. We know what to expect him. He is not a socialist. He may not be our ideal candidate, but most of us would take him over the others if Trump was out of the equation.
agip wrote:
The real swing vote is suburban women who voted for Trump and then the Dems in 2018. That's the big target and I really think asking them to vote to raise their taxes and outlaw their health insurance and welcome in all the woke PC issues the Dem left represents... might be a bridge too far for them.
Nice Republican propaganda.
I think they would be asking to raise taxes on corporations and high earners and replace their health insurance with something more comprehensive and affordable. Those would be the words they would choose.
Companies change your health provider coverage all the time. This would be no different than that.
My company provides free healthcare to employees and we are changing insurers.
The costs to the company have gone up nearly 10%.
I believe a big reason premiums are going up are because of the Republicans efforts to weaken the ACA.
There is no penalty to not have insurance anymore.
There is no advertising for the exchanges.
People don't know Obamacare still exists.
There are millions fewer covered now. Fewer paying premiums means those that do pay now have to pay more.
We can do much better than that.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Think about which Dem would appear best in a general election debate with Donald Trump. We know how Trump will appear. Would Bernie and Eliz be able to stay relatively moderate or are they unable to moderate their liberal/far-left views? Bernie did okay against Hillary but that was only for the nomination. How willing is he to moderate his socialististic views to satisfy those voters in middle America? The same for Warren. I think neither is willing to sacrifice their core hard-left views to appeal to those voters in the middle. Joe Biden, on the other hand, makes those voters in middle America very comfortable. They know what they will get with Uncle Joe. Bernie or Warren? So many moderate voters are really scared of what either of those might do.
Thing is that Biden has a strong grip on the moderate vote. For Bernie to get the nomination he has to promise crazy sh *t to woo the AOC crowd. He'll have to own it during the GE campaign, but I predict he would only go through the motions if elected. Even if he is serious, he still won't be King and even if the Democrats take back the Senate at least half of them are moderate and would never support anything wacky.
Aztec, what is crazy is that Bernie is surging in Iowa, he will kick arse in New Hampshire and that might be enough just there. I still find it crazy that Iowa and New Hampshire can dictate the presidential candidate as much as they do.