I just saw a group of high school boys doing a long run together. Acceptable or Stupidity?

This just in: local youths disobeying orders.

Shocking!

Yes of course that is the reason why, thank you for that brilliant insight of yours on the situation

It's not about your own personal risk, it's about the risk of those around you and more importantly how many people you spread it to.

In the epidemiology models for covid-19 and infectious diseases this is the R parameter, reproduction rate. With an R of just under 1.5 (i.e. each person infects 1.5 other people or for those of you that cant deal with fractions 50% of people infect 1 person and 50% of people infect 2 people), over 50% of the population will contract covid-19.

It's easy to understand why interacting with only 7 guys just once is incredibly harmful and counterproductive for the fight against covid-19.

Why stop there? If all high risk people completely quarantined, everyone else can interact because almost none would require hospitalization.

Elvin wrote:

I'm not an epidemiologist or a stochastic modeler, but I do suspect that if every single low-risk person with a non-essential job did exactly as these boys are doing, this would be enough to "flatten the curve." I think the real problem comes from people congregating in large groups or continuing a lifestyle that involves regular interaction with strangers (interacting with 7 unique contacts per day is way worse than running with the same 7 guys every day from a transmission standpoint).

Sure there are worse things than running with the same 7 guys. But lets think about how bad that is. You interact with 7 guys. They each have 2 siblings and 2 parents that do the same thing. So now you are exposed to almost 200 people. What happens when you expand that circle out 1 more time? With a 2-3 day period where you are infectious but without symptions it is pretty easy to spread pretty darn quickly.

Yes it is slower spread than when you have classrooms of 20+ and work places of 100+. The question is would it be flat enough. Current evidence suggests, nope.

The tough part will be if this turns out to be only mildly bad (call it 100k deaths over the next 2 months) it will be easy to go that we overreacted. The part we don't know is if the overreaction prevented the death toll from being say 1 million. Of course with our current course of action if the death toll ends up being like 500k, we will also look back and say nobody took social distancing seriously enough in March.

For perspective:

As of March 28, the CDC estimates that 39,000,000 - 55,000,000 have gotten influenza this season

18,000,000 - 26,000,000 have made medical visits

400,000 - 730,000 have been hospitalized

24,000 - 63,000 have died

But no one blinks an eye or thinks twice about getting the seasonal flu & going to work with it.

nbni alum wrote:

Our clown president has no self-control, but runners typically have a lot of discipline. Now is the time to use it. Take the pain now, or drag this out and suffer later. It's really that simple..

That's right. If Bernie were President, there would be neither disease nor running. All things that happen can be blamed on Republicans.

Dril wrote:

It's easy to understand why interacting with only 7 guys just once is incredibly harmful and counterproductive for the fight against covid-19.

The point I feel you are missing is these guys don't have the virus...so how are they causing a problem? Yep, you are right, I'm not 100% sure they don't have it and the issue is when they go home - their other household members STILL need to treat them as if they are infected. THAT seems like how this situation will change.

markboen wrote:

For perspective:

As of March 28, the CDC estimates that 39,000,000 - 55,000,000 have gotten influenza this season

18,000,000 - 26,000,000 have made medical visits

400,000 - 730,000 have been hospitalized

24,000 - 63,000 have died

But no one blinks an eye or thinks twice about getting the seasonal flu & going to work with it.

Watch this and report back

I hope you reported them comrade.

Class action lawsuit wrote:

markboen wrote:

For perspective:

As of March 28, the CDC estimates that 39,000,000 - 55,000,000 have gotten influenza this season

18,000,000 - 26,000,000 have made medical visits

400,000 - 730,000 have been hospitalized

24,000 - 63,000 have died

But no one blinks an eye or thinks twice about getting the seasonal flu & going to work with it.

Yep, I watched the video, but if a handful of people who are NOT infected run together, what is the issue?

Watch this and report back

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVIGhz3uwuQ

Big difference is your outdoor and moving, those breaths dissipate quickly into the vast atmosphere, plus if at the front really no risk at all.

True until you realize the power of the human body to fight these diseases makes everything else irrelevant - we can all live brave and free or scared and hidden.

truth and reality wrote:

Acceptable

It’s the lockdown that is stupidly

Boom.

markboen wrote:

For perspective:

As of March 28, the CDC estimates that 39,000,000 - 55,000,000 have gotten influenza this season

18,000,000 - 26,000,000 have made medical visits

400,000 - 730,000 have been hospitalized

24,000 - 63,000 have died

But no one blinks an eye or thinks twice about getting the seasonal flu & going to work with it.

Yep if Covid19 was only going to kill 24-63k people, nobody would blink an eye. But lets compare them so far. Flu season is 5 months. Lets call that 150 days. So the flu kills 150-420 people per day. There were something like 1300 deaths yesterday from Covid19. Even a short bus rider can do the math on what happens if we get 100+ days of that. If your bus is slightly longer, you can realize that we have gone from 400/day the week before and figure out what happens if that trend continues for another 2-3 weeks.

markboen wrote:

For perspective:

As of March 28, the CDC estimates that 39,000,000 - 55,000,000 have gotten influenza this season

18,000,000 - 26,000,000 have made medical visits

400,000 - 730,000 have been hospitalized

24,000 - 63,000 have died

But no one blinks an eye or thinks twice about getting the seasonal flu & going to work with it.

You really don't get it, do you? Corona is in addition to, not replacing the flu. It's like saying 9/11 isn't that bad, only 3000 deaths, way less than the flu. In fact, we could let 9/11 happen again 4 more times and it wouldn't even be half the deaths of a flu season.

Let's not battle terrorists because it's mildly uncomfortable for us and just let them roam free. Maybe if they kill more than 100000 Americans, then we can consider taking the issue seriously.

pathetic wrote:

This is an awful precedent. We now are living in a world where kids are being shamed for running with each other? Is this a joke? Screw your stupid Coronavirus dramatic attitude. This has gone too far. This is not nazi Germany, people shouldn’t be shamed for seeing each other. This has absolutely gone too far.

+1

+1

How do we know they don't have the virus? Part of the issue with this virus is that a lot of people can carry the virus, but be asymptomatic. So they could be passing it on to each other and by extension all of their family members. But hey, no problem, it's only pandemic.