This post will not age well.
This post will not age well.
blamb61 wrote:
It's doubling about every 3 days, not two. Still valid points about exponential growth and lots of cases soon unless we isolate.
Exponential growth tends to level off with diseases. Even without social distancing and the like swine flu only hit 60 million americans. Of course right now it looks like we are talking about a 20-50x the death rate of swine flu so that would result in like 500k-1 million added deaths. That will be we enough to affect fox news viewer rates (death rate in the over 75% crowd is up around 20%)
Educate Yourself wrote:
Three points:
-The virus is experiencing exponential growth in the U.S. It is doubling in number every two days. This is with completely inadequate testing. We’re at 3600 today. With the current trend line, we will hit 900,000 in two weeks, and over 200M a month from now.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/-The healthcare system is not prepared. There is neither the hospital capacity or required number of nurses and doctors to care for all of the sick.
-What you do today will determine the ultimate fatality rate. There is enough data available from countries that dealt with Covid to have drawn conclusions on what works and what doesn’t.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99caThe only course of action that will prevent a catastrophe is social distancing. It has worked in Taiwan, and in Wuhan. Stay home, protect yourself and your loved ones.
Please understand any data in the US on the "number of cases" is unreliable. I have seen many suspicious COVID19 patients. I have been unable to run a single test. Testing is not available widely in the US. Anyone who says they know anything about the number of cases can't be trusted.
It's still a problem. Obviously. It's not apocalyptic. But a problem. Just don't act like you are "educated" on the numbers here.
Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) is the final “domino” in the cascade of a patient’s immune response to Covid 19…infection by the Corona Virus. ARDS is an immune mediated “Hypersensitivity” response to the invading virus. This is the immune mediated process which leads those genetically vulnerable individuals to require ICU ventilator care and potential death. No two people’s Immune systems respond in exactly the same way or to the exact same extent. Sort of like a “peanut allergy”; most people can eat peanuts and have zero immune response; but for a very few it is deadly. What we need is an immunologic (allergy) test like an allergen (skin) test to identify those individuals at greatest risk of having an overwhelming immune response to Covid 19 and isolate only those individuals. We can then let all those other people who “test negative” to a severe immune response simply get back to life as usual and possibly experience what would otherwise be symptomatology akin to the common cold. The “herd immunity” which comes after this (population based) wave of milder infection in the “pre-identified negative” general population would then benefit all those other people who were predetermined (test positive) to be at greatest risk. While all this is playing out, the population at greatest risk could mitigate their “test-positive” health risk by taking immune boosting supplements as well as self imposing isolation (which they would have great motivation to do.)
Betterthinking wrote:
Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) is the final “domino” in the cascade of a patient’s immune response to Covid 19…infection by the Corona Virus. ARDS is an immune mediated “Hypersensitivity” response to the invading virus. This is the immune mediated process which leads those genetically vulnerable individuals to require ICU ventilator care and potential death. No two people’s Immune systems respond in exactly the same way or to the exact same extent. Sort of like a “peanut allergy”; most people can eat peanuts and have zero immune response; but for a very few it is deadly. What we need is an immunologic (allergy) test like an allergen (skin) test to identify those individuals at greatest risk of having an overwhelming immune response to Covid 19 and isolate only those individuals. We can then let all those other people who “test negative” to a severe immune response simply get back to life as usual and possibly experience what would otherwise be symptomatology akin to the common cold. The “herd immunity” which comes after this (population based) wave of milder infection in the “pre-identified negative” general population would then benefit all those other people who were predetermined (test positive) to be at greatest risk. While all this is playing out, the population at greatest risk could mitigate their “test-positive” health risk by taking immune boosting supplements as well as self imposing isolation (which they would have great motivation to do.)
Have you never been on Let's Run before?!?! You're not allowed to be rational and sensible here...
wut arr ya doin man wrote:
Betterthinking wrote:
Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) is the final “domino” in the cascade of a patient’s immune response to Covid 19…infection by the Corona Virus. ARDS is an immune mediated “Hypersensitivity” response to the invading virus. This is the immune mediated process which leads those genetically vulnerable individuals to require ICU ventilator care and potential death. No two people’s Immune systems respond in exactly the same way or to the exact same extent. Sort of like a “peanut allergy”; most people can eat peanuts and have zero immune response; but for a very few it is deadly. What we need is an immunologic (allergy) test like an allergen (skin) test to identify those individuals at greatest risk of having an overwhelming immune response to Covid 19 and isolate only those individuals. We can then let all those other people who “test negative” to a severe immune response simply get back to life as usual and possibly experience what would otherwise be symptomatology akin to the common cold. The “herd immunity” which comes after this (population based) wave of milder infection in the “pre-identified negative” general population would then benefit all those other people who were predetermined (test positive) to be at greatest risk. While all this is playing out, the population at greatest risk could mitigate their “test-positive” health risk by taking immune boosting supplements as well as self imposing isolation (which they would have great motivation to do.)
Have you never been on Let's Run before?!?! You're not allowed to be rational and sensible here...
We can, and are, doing this now. Living life as we want. We KNOW already who is most at risk. It's not my problem I run past them, golfing in groups, when I'm out running. I still spit all the time.
Such an idiotic take. First, not enough time has passed for one to make an accurate analysis of the spread. Second, disease spread follows a normal curve, not an exponential curve. All the lockdowns, and possibly the rising temperatures, are going to cause a decrease in spread and flatten the curve.
Use your head.
dadsfadsfdasfdsafdas wrote:
blamb61 wrote:
It's doubling about every 3 days, not two. Still valid points about exponential growth and lots of cases soon unless we isolate.
Of course right now it looks like we are talking about a 20-50x the death rate of swine flu so that would result in like 500k-1 million added deaths. That will be we enough to affect fox news viewer rates (death rate in the over 75% crowd is up around 20%)
As of right now the CDC has reported 75 deaths/ 4,226 cases. I know those numbers are going to rise, but that's still a 0.17% death rate. I guess time will tell, but I'm not holding my breath for the 1 million death count that the media loves to spout off.
Corn pop, I don't know how to break this to you, but you are not the shapest tool in the shed. The death rate for the stats you quote is between 1 and 2 %. And the hallmark of epidemics is exponential growth. They wouldn't be such a problem if that were the case. Head back into the basement and check back in a couple of weeks.
There is a reason why Trump et al changed their tune in the last couple of days. Models are predicting a couple of hundred thousand deaths in both US and UK, to start. See Wash Post (free) A chilling scientific paper helped upend U.S. and U.K. coronavirus strategies.
For the next 18 months,
corona virus will doing infection laps,
food shortages,
hospitals overwhelmed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-plan.html
dadsfadsfdasfdsafdas wrote:
blamb61 wrote:
It's doubling about every 3 days, not two. Still valid points about exponential growth and lots of cases soon unless we isolate.
Exponential growth tends to level off with diseases. Even without social distancing and the like swine flu only hit 60 million americans. Of course right now it looks like we are talking about a 20-50x the death rate of swine flu so that would result in like 500k-1 million added deaths. That will be we enough to affect fox news viewer rates (death rate in the over 75% crowd is up around 20%)
It levels off because the growth isn't really exponential. A toy model for spread of infection is that the rate of spread is proportional to the number of people infected times the number of people who aren't infected. So, if P is the population, and f(t) is the number of people f*cked at time t, then
f'(t) = k*f(t)*(P-f(t))
So when f(t) is small, it is close to exponential. But as f grows, f' tends toward 0.
The safest prediction is that there is going to be a mini baby boom at the start of next year.
Educate Yourself wrote:
Let me provide one more statistic.
China completely locked down most of Hubei province when they had hit 400 new diagnosed cases a day.
China still ended up with 80,000 cases.
The US is currently seeing 1800 cases a day, and there is no lockdown yet. If we were to lock down the entire country today, following the Chinese trend line we would still see 320,000 cases.
We are nowhere close to the type of lockdown that China implemented.
Ok All you chicken littles
https://www.13abc.com/content/news/US-flu-death-toll-hits-22K-hospitalization-rates-high-for-children-young-adults-568773701.htmlWe've lost more in the US from the normal flu than this virus.
Wash your hands. Stop picking your nose.
ebolaSuzanne wrote:
Educate Yourself wrote:
Let me provide one more statistic.
China completely locked down most of Hubei province when they had hit 400 new diagnosed cases a day.
China still ended up with 80,000 cases.
The US is currently seeing 1800 cases a day, and there is no lockdown yet. If we were to lock down the entire country today, following the Chinese trend line we would still see 320,000 cases.
We are nowhere close to the type of lockdown that China implemented.
Ok All you chicken littles
https://www.13abc.com/content/news/US-flu-death-toll-hits-22K-hospitalization-rates-high-for-children-young-adults-568773701.htmlWe've lost more in the US from the normal flu than this virus.
Wash your hands. Stop picking your nose.
80,000 Americans died last year from the flu. So far 70 Americans have died. So far like 15,000 have the Coronavirus. In 2009 60 MILLION had the swine flu. This is hysteria gone awry.
Sally Vix wrote:
This is hysteria gone awry.
But a totalitarian dictatorship locked down their populace! That means its serious, right?
Corn pop wrote:
dadsfadsfdasfdsafdas wrote:
Of course right now it looks like we are talking about a 20-50x the death rate of swine flu so that would result in like 500k-1 million added deaths. That will be we enough to affect fox news viewer rates (death rate in the over 75% crowd is up around 20%)
As of right now the CDC has reported 75 deaths/ 4,226 cases. I know those numbers are going to rise, but that's still a 0.17% death rate. I guess time will tell, but I'm not holding my breath for the 1 million death count that the media loves to spout off.
I figured with the exponential rate of infection that I’d at least know someone who knows someone who got it.
Sally Vix wrote:
ebolaSuzanne wrote:
Ok All you chicken littles
https://www.13abc.com/content/news/US-flu-death-toll-hits-22K-hospitalization-rates-high-for-children-young-adults-568773701.htmlWe've lost more in the US from the normal flu than this virus.
Wash your hands. Stop picking your nose.
80,000 Americans died last year from the flu. So far 70 Americans have died. So far like 15,000 have the Coronavirus. In 2009 60 MILLION had the swine flu. This is hysteria gone awry.
You didn’t really think the Dems were going to let this opportunity to send us into recession go by did you?
BlueNorther wrote:
Corn pop, I don't know how to break this to you, but you are not the shapest tool in the shed. The death rate for the stats you quote is between 1 and 2 %. And the hallmark of epidemics is exponential growth. They wouldn't be such a problem if that were the case. Head back into the basement and check back in a couple of weeks.
There is a reason why Trump et al changed their tune in the last couple of days. Models are predicting a couple of hundred thousand deaths in both US and UK, to start. See Wash Post (free) A chilling scientific paper helped upend U.S. and U.K. coronavirus strategies.
By God, you're right, I put the decimal point in the wrong.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/These simulation models show that the growth will be flattened by the lockdowns and quarantines.
475 deaths in one day in Italy, and they’ve been locked down for a week.