Calm the F**K Down! - What is wrong with everyone?

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5 years ago 03/13/2020 12:21pm EDT

re: yes!

yes! wrote:
From what I 've heard Italy has an older population and their hospital care isn't as good as the US and more people smoke.
Obviously we don't want to get there but some smart people are saying calm down
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1236557371310133248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1236557371310133248%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.latimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fstory%2F2020-03-12%2Ftesla-china-musk

I fear that 2020 is going to be a reality check for those who believe the USA has a superior health care system. I'd love to be way off base here.

And while Musk is a smart, successful guy, he's also posts amazingly dumb things on Twitter from time to time. It's not a great place to go for well-thought, credible opinions.

5 years ago 03/13/2020 12:31pm EDT

re: knox harrington

knox harrington wrote:
yes! wrote:
From what I 've heard Italy has an older population and their hospital care isn't as good as the US and more people smoke.
Obviously we don't want to get there but some smart people are saying calm down
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1236557371310133248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1236557371310133248%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.latimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fstory%2F2020-03-12%2Ftesla-china-musk
I fear that 2020 is going to be a reality check for those who believe the USA has a superior health care system. I'd love to be way off base here.
And while Musk is a smart, successful guy, he's also posts amazingly dumb things on Twitter from time to time. It's not a great place to go for well-thought, credible opinions.

March 8. Nice try

5 years ago 03/13/2020 12:33pm EDT

re: Bruh what?

Bruh what? wrote:
Lmao, you're dummer than I thought. You want to talk facts, be my guest
Flu death rate = .1%
Coronavirus death rate = 3%
Flu infects 1.3 people per every new patient
Coronavirus infects 3 more people per every new case
Coronavirus can survive 10 days on a surface
We have a flu vaccine while we have nothing for coronavirus.
Ohio health officials say they think they have 100,000 cases in their state.
The U.S. has 790,000 hospital bed available and 2/3 of them are already in use for non coronavirus cases.
2/3 of 790,000 = 263,333 hospital beds for coronavirus patients.
If 3% of the "infected," as you like to call them are going to die most likely in a hospital, that means the U.S. can only have 8,777,766 infected people before beds are overrun. Now, that's assuming only the people who are unfortunately going to pass away are the ones in hospitals. If we add 7% to 3% to account for people who might need medical attention in a hospital but won't die, the U.S will only be able to support 2,633,330 cases of coronavirus. Either way 2,633,330 and 8,777,766 cases are lower than what the actual experts say we are going to have to deal with.
So leave the predictions to the experts who have spent years studying this you clown.

NO, actually YOU are precisely as dumb as I suspected. You lack critical thinking skills and can only repeat what you have been told.

You quote the influenza death rate at .1%. That death rate is calculated from all known and estimated influenza infections in the USA. You then quote the coronavirus death rate at 3%, which is merely taking the known cases and dividing that by the known deaths so far. Comparing these 2 numbers continues to be the biggest lie that is being told. They do not reflect the same data points.

To make your stupidity even more obvious, you then go on to say that Ohio believes there are 100,000 more cases in the state, which if true, would only push the 3% death rate that YOU quoted, down. It's a complete contradiction to what you just said. If Ohio has 100,000 infections, how many does California, Texas and new York have? When you calculate those estimates into the death and have a better accounting of the true number of infections in all states, only then can you assign a death rate by factoring in the 40 deaths. Only stupid people compare apples to oranges and use that data to form opinions.

You, my friend, are a stupid person.

5 years ago 03/13/2020 12:37pm EDT

re: Facts Matter

Facts Matter wrote:
Bruh what? wrote:
Lmao, you're dummer than I thought. You want to talk facts, be my guest
Flu death rate = .1%
Coronavirus death rate = 3%
Flu infects 1.3 people per every new patient
Coronavirus infects 3 more people per every new case
Coronavirus can survive 10 days on a surface
We have a flu vaccine while we have nothing for coronavirus.
Ohio health officials say they think they have 100,000 cases in their state.
The U.S. has 790,000 hospital bed available and 2/3 of them are already in use for non coronavirus cases.
2/3 of 790,000 = 263,333 hospital beds for coronavirus patients.
If 3% of the "infected," as you like to call them are going to die most likely in a hospital, that means the U.S. can only have 8,777,766 infected people before beds are overrun. Now, that's assuming only the people who are unfortunately going to pass away are the ones in hospitals. If we add 7% to 3% to account for people who might need medical attention in a hospital but won't die, the U.S will only be able to support 2,633,330 cases of coronavirus. Either way 2,633,330 and 8,777,766 cases are lower than what the actual experts say we are going to have to deal with.
So leave the predictions to the experts who have spent years studying this you clown.
NO, actually YOU are precisely as dumb as I suspected. You lack critical thinking skills and can only repeat what you have been told.
You quote the influenza death rate at .1%. That death rate is calculated from all known and estimated influenza infections in the USA. You then quote the coronavirus death rate at 3%, which is merely taking the known cases and dividing that by the known deaths so far. Comparing these 2 numbers continues to be the biggest lie that is being told. They do not reflect the same data points.
To make your stupidity even more obvious, you then go on to say that Ohio believes there are 100,000 more cases in the state, which if true, would only push the 3% death rate that YOU quoted, down. It's a complete contradiction to what you just said. If Ohio has 100,000 infections, how many does California, Texas and new York have? When you calculate those estimates into the death and have a better accounting of the true number of infections in all states, only then can you assign a death rate by factoring in the 40 deaths. Only stupid people compare apples to oranges and use that data to form opinions.
You, my friend, are a stupid person.

No, you are the dumb one.

in 3-5 weeks you will be singing a different tune.

People like you trying to convince people this "isn't that bad" is what will make this worse than it should be.

5 years ago 03/13/2020 12:39pm EDT

re: Facts Matter

Facts Matter wrote:
Bruh what? wrote:
Lmao, you're dummer than I thought. You want to talk facts, be my guest
Flu death rate = .1%
Coronavirus death rate = 3%
Flu infects 1.3 people per every new patient
Coronavirus infects 3 more people per every new case
Coronavirus can survive 10 days on a surface
We have a flu vaccine while we have nothing for coronavirus.
Ohio health officials say they think they have 100,000 cases in their state.
The U.S. has 790,000 hospital bed available and 2/3 of them are already in use for non coronavirus cases.
2/3 of 790,000 = 263,333 hospital beds for coronavirus patients.
If 3% of the "infected," as you like to call them are going to die most likely in a hospital, that means the U.S. can only have 8,777,766 infected people before beds are overrun. Now, that's assuming only the people who are unfortunately going to pass away are the ones in hospitals. If we add 7% to 3% to account for people who might need medical attention in a hospital but won't die, the U.S will only be able to support 2,633,330 cases of coronavirus. Either way 2,633,330 and 8,777,766 cases are lower than what the actual experts say we are going to have to deal with.
So leave the predictions to the experts who have spent years studying this you clown.
NO, actually YOU are precisely as dumb as I suspected. You lack critical thinking skills and can only repeat what you have been told.
You quote the influenza death rate at .1%. That death rate is calculated from all known and estimated influenza infections in the USA. You then quote the coronavirus death rate at 3%, which is merely taking the known cases and dividing that by the known deaths so far. Comparing these 2 numbers continues to be the biggest lie that is being told. They do not reflect the same data points.
To make your stupidity even more obvious, you then go on to say that Ohio believes there are 100,000 more cases in the state, which if true, would only push the 3% death rate that YOU quoted, down. It's a complete contradiction to what you just said. If Ohio has 100,000 infections, how many does California, Texas and new York have? When you calculate those estimates into the death and have a better accounting of the true number of infections in all states, only then can you assign a death rate by factoring in the 40 deaths. Only stupid people compare apples to oranges and use that data to form opinions.
You, my friend, are a stupid person.

And you are a tedious narcissist - and no one's friend.

5 years ago 03/13/2020 12:46pm EDT

Facts Matter wrote:
Facts Matter wrote:
No, you are the dumb one.
in 3-5 weeks you will be singing a different tune.
People like you trying to convince people this "isn't that bad" is what will make this worse than it should be.
Again, you have no facts to refute what I say, just supposition, guessing and allowing everyone else to think for you.You are a complete twit with a sub-60 IQ and you prove it by copying my user name . Only idiots with personality disorders do that.
Try getting some facts to support your position and maybe a life to go with it.

I smell projection.

5 years ago 03/13/2020 12:53pm EDT

re: Armstronglivs

Armstronglivs wrote:
And you are a tedious narcissist - and no one's friend.

Maybe, maybe not, but completely irrelevant.

I would never expect a factual response from you anyway because you are incapable of doing so. It's well known that you lack the ability to think for yourself, you rely on what other people think, say and do to form your opinions. So, let me help you with your next post.

If what you say were true ___________ would have done ___________.

If what you say were true ___________ would have said ____________.

There you go, just fill in the blanks. No thought required... as usual.

5 years ago 03/13/2020 12:58pm EDT

re: Facts Matter

Facts Matter wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
And you are a tedious narcissist - and no one's friend.
Maybe, maybe not, but completely irrelevant.
I would never expect a factual response from you anyway because you are incapable of doing so. It's well known that you lack the ability to think for yourself, you rely on what other people think, say and do to form your opinions. So, let me help you with your next post.
If what you say were true ___________ would have done ___________.
If what you say were true ___________ would have said ____________.
There you go, just fill in the blanks. No thought required... as usual.

Your post doesn't make sense.

5 years ago 03/13/2020 1:00pm EDT

re: Facts Matter

Facts Matter wrote:
I smell projection.

WOW, brilliant retort. Did you write that yourself?

Quite the typical response when one has no facts to back up an opinion and is waving the white flag.

What else you got?

5 years ago 03/13/2020 1:04pm EDT

re: Fentrekker

Fentrekker wrote:
Over the next year it is likely that half of Americans will contract the virus

Literally no evidence for this. These viruses don't grow exponentially for infinity.

5 years ago 03/13/2020 1:07pm EDT

re: Facts Matter

Facts Matter wrote:
Bruh what? wrote:
Lmao, you're dummer than I thought. You want to talk facts, be my guest
Flu death rate = .1%
Coronavirus death rate = 3%
Flu infects 1.3 people per every new patient
Coronavirus infects 3 more people per every new case
Coronavirus can survive 10 days on a surface
We have a flu vaccine while we have nothing for coronavirus.
Ohio health officials say they think they have 100,000 cases in their state.
The U.S. has 790,000 hospital bed available and 2/3 of them are already in use for non coronavirus cases.
2/3 of 790,000 = 263,333 hospital beds for coronavirus patients.
If 3% of the "infected," as you like to call them are going to die most likely in a hospital, that means the U.S. can only have 8,777,766 infected people before beds are overrun. Now, that's assuming only the people who are unfortunately going to pass away are the ones in hospitals. If we add 7% to 3% to account for people who might need medical attention in a hospital but won't die, the U.S will only be able to support 2,633,330 cases of coronavirus. Either way 2,633,330 and 8,777,766 cases are lower than what the actual experts say we are going to have to deal with.
So leave the predictions to the experts who have spent years studying this you clown.
NO, actually YOU are precisely as dumb as I suspected. You lack critical thinking skills and can only repeat what you have been told.
You quote the influenza death rate at .1%. That death rate is calculated from all known and estimated influenza infections in the USA. You then quote the coronavirus death rate at 3%, which is merely taking the known cases and dividing that by the known deaths so far. Comparing these 2 numbers continues to be the biggest lie that is being told. They do not reflect the same data points.
To make your stupidity even more obvious, you then go on to say that Ohio believes there are 100,000 more cases in the state, which if true, would only push the 3% death rate that YOU quoted, down. It's a complete contradiction to what you just said. If Ohio has 100,000 infections, how many does California, Texas and new York have? When you calculate those estimates into the death and have a better accounting of the true number of infections in all states, only then can you assign a death rate by factoring in the 40 deaths. Only stupid people compare apples to oranges and use that data to form opinions.
You, my friend, are a stupid person.

Nah man, only stupid people say they're smarter than experts. To go from .1% to 3% thats 3000% increase. 3000 times the current amount of cases(1714) is 3,428,000. "Critical thinking" tells us that the U.S. would need 3,428,000 cases with our death count staying the same for us to reach the death rate of the flu. The death rate may be lower that 3% but its definitely higher than the flu. God it must suck that you spend your free time complaining about how we shouldn't worry about a virus when people much smarter than you and me are concerned. Keep your B.S. opinions to yourself. I would rather be cautious and look back knowing we overprepared rather than look back in a few years knowing wecould've saved so many people

5 years ago 03/13/2020 1:09pm EDT

re: Facts Matter

Facts matter -

You are doing the same thing you are accusing others of doing. You are using deceptive statistics (absolute number of flu deaths) and you are making assumptions about how the virus will play out.

That’s the biggest problem, no one knows how it will play out. I agree that saying that the infected numbers are much higher AND that the death rate is much higher than the flu is contradictory (as one is the denominator) and I agree that the way we measure “infected” between flu and covid will cause discrepancies. But it is also true that there are many people who haven’t recovered yet, so there is the possibility the numbers get worse. The fear right now is that the rate of spread is extremely high and that the hospitalization rate and death rate appear to be higher than the flu. Additionally, there are several 2nd and 3rd order consequences to worry about (hospital beds being a big one). I don’t see how you have confidence that this isn’t a big deal, the speed at which this is spreading is fast, there is no vaccine, the death rate appears high, it impacts people with health issues and obesity more (and there are many of those in the USA) etc.

It will probably have a lower death rate when all is said and done, but we don’t know that (death rates by age group and even country are a bit all over the place).

You act like you can read the future. All signs point to this being worse than the flu, overreaction? Probably. But I also wouldn’t discount the virus.

5 years ago 03/13/2020 1:30pm EDT

re: the problem with your logic

the problem with your logic wrote:
Facts matter -
You are doing the same thing you are accusing others of doing. You are using deceptive statistics (absolute number of flu deaths) and you are making assumptions about how the virus will play out.
That’s the biggest problem, no one knows how it will play out. I agree that saying that the infected numbers are much higher AND that the death rate is much higher than the flu is contradictory (as one is the denominator) and I agree that the way we measure “infected” between flu and covid will cause discrepancies. But it is also true that there are many people who haven’t recovered yet, so there is the possibility the numbers get worse. The fear right now is that the rate of spread is extremely high and that the hospitalization rate and death rate appear to be higher than the flu. Additionally, there are several 2nd and 3rd order consequences to worry about (hospital beds being a big one). I don’t see how you have confidence that this isn’t a big deal, the speed at which this is spreading is fast, there is no vaccine, the death rate appears high, it impacts people with health issues and obesity more (and there are many of those in the USA) etc.
It will probably have a lower death rate when all is said and done, but we don’t know that (death rates by age group and even country are a bit all over the place).
You act like you can read the future. All signs point to this being worse than the flu, overreaction? Probably. But I also wouldn’t discount the virus.

That was probably the most reasoned post yet.

I am reacting to facts, not to fear. I can only go where the numbers take me and the numbers do not support a reason to panic. I keep hearing about how fast the virus is spreading and there is no evidence of that. The media keeps reporting how many "new cases of coronavirus" there are, however, what they are really reporting is how many new people have tested positive for the coronavirus. This number has nothing to do with the actual spread of the virus and everything to do with increased reach of testing. They are not reporting 3 new deaths for every 100 "new cases," so anyone with a 3rd grade education can see that the death rate is not what is being reported.

I have never said that no one should be concerned. I have never said that people should not be prepared. What I did say is that people need to calm the f**k down because it's not nearly as bad as they apparently think it is. I am not saying anything that is not readily available for everyone to see for themselves if they just look at the facts!

5 years ago 03/13/2020 1:42pm EDT

re: Corona Beer

You're spot on. Modern day Americans have become scared of their own shadows. I'm in my 50s and have seen this developing for the past 30 years. One crisis to the next. Liberal/progressive/communists that control the media arguing for ever growing government to be a nanny to every whim of all the snowflakes of the world, feeding off the hard work and discipline of those of us who actually work for a living and don't seek to impose our needs for material goods upon others.

Sick and tired of American snowflakes. Let em starve.

5 years ago 03/13/2020 1:45pm EDT

re: Bruh what?

Bruh what? wrote:Flu death rate = .1%
Coronavirus death rate = 3%

There is zero evidence of that spurious claim. By the way, corona virus IS the flu.

Flu infects 1.3 people per every new patient
Coronavirus infects 3 more people per every new case

There is zero evidence that corona virus can even be spread from one person to another.

Plus, how do you think it started in the first place.

Coronavirus can survive 10 days on a surface

Even if that spurious claim were true, you have more than 200 kinds of germs on your hands right now. So what.

We have a flu vaccine while we have nothing for coronavirus.

Which means nothing because the flu vaccine is worse than useless anyway.

5 years ago 03/13/2020 1:49pm EDT

re: LennyZ

LennyZ wrote:
The idea is to slow the virus spread enough so that our health care systems can keep up.

You can't slow it down, because it's already everywhere. Haven't you been listening to the news?

Therefore, there's nothing that governments or health care systems can do except to make it much worse.

5 years ago 03/13/2020 1:49pm EDT

5 years ago 03/13/2020 1:51pm EDT

OP you're obviously a troll. Or an incredibly bitter and troubled person with your opinion and tone of writing - what went so wrong for you to be so angry at the world... You are obsessive with 'facts' yet are (as others have pointed out) guilty of using just as misguiding and misinterpreted data as we all are. You kind of remind me of Charlie Sheen 'winning' when he was only winning in his own crazy head.

Just go on cold hard truths. Italy (soon to be Spain). A combination of bad luck and bad management of the situation has led to a state of emergency that cannot be refuted and every country is following suit. The health system is overwhelmed after people became infected very fast and very seriously. Intensive care units in the hospitals are full, patients are in corridors and in line for life saving treatment. Doctors are having to make the call on who lives and who dies. They are collapsing from exhaustion and falling ill from the virus themselves in conditions that haven't been seen since the war. These are direct reports from health workers. No sensationalism, no fake facts. Normal flu clearly does not do this. This is direct consequence of the effectiveness of the virus in transmitting and having a much more deadly impact than a common flu, and the governments reluctance to react because of fear of panic and market impact. Hence why thousands of the worlds brightest minds have classed coronavirus as significantly more serious than the flu. This is a biological fact. It has been tested, analysed, compared. It is not a common flu irrespective of the disagreement of death rate, which btw is highly variable depending on a countries health care's ability to cope with spikes. If there is a spike, currently no country is equipped. that's the worry. People struggle to understand the concept behind stopping the curve. it's simple maths.

Forget 'facts' for a minute, explain whats happening in Italy & Spain and then explain why this won't happen in the US? I hate to burst the circular logic fact bubble you live in but people will die if but more probably when it hits unnecessarily, if we go by other countries.

5 years ago 03/13/2020 1:53pm EDT

re: highhoppingworm

highhoppingworm wrote:
Let’s see. Listen to some guy and the internet with what doesn’t even qualify as a straw man argument or listen to public health agencies and my infectious disease physician/epidemiologist wife. I choose the guy on the internet! Thanks facts matter, you have changed my whole perspective on this pandemic. Time to send my 2 year old back to school.

Your 2 year old goes to school.? That is pretty damn special! Almost as special as conveniently having an epidemiologist as a wife.

5 years ago 03/13/2020 1:55pm EDT

re: knox harrington

knox harrington wrote:
Italy, 3 weeks ago: 5 known covid cases.
Italy, now: over 1,000 covid deaths, too many critical patients to treat, and each day brings more newly confirmed cases than the last despite severe containment measures.

This is a great example of how governments and health care systems are making the situation much worse.

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