2019 Girls NXN top 5 individual predictions

I def can see Tuohy breaking away hard early with a chase pack of Ewert Rauber Thorvaldson Hart Starliper and Walters following closely. Should be a great race among those 6 and we’ll see who tries to stick on Tuohy and who sits back. I think Walters and Ewert may play it a bit safe as they have team races to consider. Should be a phenomenal race.

The thing is that most girls cannot keep up with Tuohy's early pace. Even if they hypothetically can run that fast, she is the only one who consistently runs this style of race, and it is definitely more difficult that going out at a slower/steady pace and then picking it up for the last mile.

In order to beat her someone has to either 1.) have the greatest race of their life, trying out the going out super fast strategy and hoping they have enough in the tank to hang on or pick it up later, OR 2.) go out slower but keep close to her, and then slowly close on her (how chmiel used to).

The issue is that Tuohy doesn't really slow down/die. She does compared to the beginning of her race, but she is still running faster than the others. If she gets even 7-10 seconds ahead the first mile that means these girls would have to run suuuuper fast the second half of the race to catch her, and she would have to completely die and have no energy left to fight off a challenge, which just seems unrealistic (although, technically possible)

One thing to note is that she has admitted she went out too fast last year, so it makes sense that she would consider that and go out a little bit slower, but what pace is that exactly? how much slower and will that actually happen with all the adrenaline? If she goes out slower other girls can maybe stay with her, although I expect if girls are near her she'll turn it up a notch.

I am getting those same vibes I felt in Lawi Lalang and Cheserek's last xc races. she could lose to a newcomer.

claudia lane wouldve won 3 footlocker races but was simply injured.

westsouthrunner wrote:

I am getting those same vibes I felt in Lawi Lalang and Cheserek's last xc races. she could lose to a newcomer.

claudia lane wouldve won 3 footlocker races but was simply injured.

Would she though...funny it seems that you can't seem to say a good or bad thing about lane without people getting peeved...or they somehow think that every conversation is a Tuohy vs Lane debate.

First of all, I think Claudia lane was a great runner. Obviously the injuries caused her issues, but I would have questioned whether her winning a third title was a lock....certainly it is a more relevant debate than Tuohy losing . I believe both Masciarelli and Hart beat Claudia's times at FL in 2018...that's not a shot at Claudia, but the competition seemed to be catching up to her.

I always considered Chmiel the 2nd best runner in the country ahead of Lane, and (of course it was only one race) that played out at Edinburgh. So in Lane's case the runners were getting better and closing the gap, the same as with Tuohy, except Tuohy was much further ahead of the field already.

Lane would have been in tough for a third title because the competition was better. In all likelihood, while the overall competition against Tuohy has improved...I still don't think I would rank any of the runners ahead of Chmiel from last year - maybe equal to. So it is obviously possible that Tuohy can lose, but she has to have an off race for that to happen.

Tuohy's style of race makes it hard for someone to just have a lucky race and beat her if she is having a good day.

Personally, I expect Tuohy makes this a statement race and to have a 20-30sec lead at the end...and on a field that (in my opinion) is easily the strongest female representation this race has seen in many years.

Regardless though....lots of drama to watch!!!

All knowing HS wrote:

1-Hart

2- Starliper

3.-Tuohy

4-Walters

5- Ewert

IL is going to prove to be too much this year in both races NXN and at Footlocker.

That's a very interesting prediction. Reminds me of the year that the unstoppable Sarah Baxter was supposed to win NXN and got out-kicked by both Efraimson and Cranny. Could this play out similarly?

JO Coach wrote:

All knowing HS wrote:

1-Hart

2- Starliper

3.-Tuohy

4-Walters

5- Ewert

IL is going to prove to be too much this year in both races NXN and at Footlocker.

That's a very interesting prediction. Reminds me of the year that the unstoppable Sarah Baxter was supposed to win NXN and got out-kicked by both Efraimson and Cranny. Could this play out similarly?

Sarah Baxter didn't have the best 800 or 1600 time out of all of them, so it is unsurprising that she would lose in a kick, or even that Efraimson could stick with her. Cranny obviously improved a lot over the summer.

Baxter - 2:17, 4:49 (1600), 10:06 (3200)

Efraimson - 57, 2:06, 4:39 (1600), 10:15 (2 miles)

Cranny - 2:08, 4:55 (1600), 10:38 (3200)

Tuohy has an 800m PR of 2:09 from her sophomore year, which is the best out of the top girls in the field. The next would be Hart at 2:10. Tuohy also ran 2:11 this outdoor season, which is still faster than the rest of the top girls, including Starliper. Her national records in the mile, 3200, and 5k clearly show that she is faster than the rest of the girls in those events as well. It might be close in a kick, especially since Tuohy isn't exactly used to having to kick, but first another girl would have to stick with her long enough, which doesn't seem likely. Baxter was also from Southern California, which doesn't have a lot of cold muddy courses while Efraimson at least was running in cold muddy races fairly often. Tuohy is from New York and is definitely used to the cold and the mud.

Efraimson still has the hs national 1500 m 4:03.39--even faster than Mary Cain. Despite her great achievements, she never seemed to get quite the recognition she really deserved.

record I mean

Actually for some one who has been called the greatest hs distance runner ever by some, 2:09 is not especially fast. However, many of the girls do not get to run in an established indoor track program so rarely if ever race the 400 or 800 m. I would bet that several could handily beat Touhy in a 600 or 800 m race. I have observed, that the shorter the distance, the more likely she is to get beat--for example in indoor mile races. She knows she does not have great leg turnover--this may be part of the reason she blasts out ahead--does not want to open up the possibility of getting outkicked.

I am not saying that she can't improve, but she will need to drop her 800 m and 1500 m PRs, if she wants to make the trial standard for 5000 m. To reach the podium, sub 2:00 and 4:00 speed are necessary anymore. Touhy's future is probably in the 10,000 m to the marathon range to the extent she has any chance of breaking any American Record.

don't think so wrote:

Tuohy has an 800m PR of 2:09 from her sophomore year, which is the best out of the top girls in the field. The next would be Hart at 2:10. Tuohy also ran 2:11 this outdoor season, which is still faster than the rest of the top girls, including Starliper.

No, Starliper also ran a 2:09 this past May.

Starliper is a real talent and seems to be at a higher level of fitness now compared to when she ran 2:09/4:37--this means she has a real chance of winning. She does not seem to be training excessively hard now and seems to really enjoy her training/racing program. This contrast to many of the runners from NY--especially those from FM or Saratoga who don't improve that much after hs

Kev2 wrote:

Actually for some one who has been called the greatest hs distance runner ever by some, 2:09 is not especially fast. However, many of the girls do not get to run in an established indoor track program so rarely if ever race the 400 or 800 m. I would bet that several could handily beat Touhy in a 600 or 800 m race. I have observed, that the shorter the distance, the more likely she is to get beat--for example in indoor mile races. She knows she does not have great leg turnover--this may be part of the reason she blasts out ahead--does not want to open up the possibility of getting outkicked.

Or she blasts out ahead because she can....and she can hold it at a pace better than anyone in the field. In looking at her record over the past three years, think she found a pretty good method of winning a race.

When is the last time she was outkicked in a race? I seem to remember a DMR where she was given the baton well back of the leaders (2018 i believe)...proceeded to destroy the field which was not weak.

If she gets outkicked in the last 400m of a race, then someone can say she maybe doesn't have the best kick....until that happens, I'm pretty comfortable saying her kick is as good or better than anyone else.

JO Coach wrote:

All knowing HS wrote:

1-Hart

2- Starliper

3.-Tuohy

4-Walters

5- Ewert

IL is going to prove to be too much this year in both races NXN and at Footlocker.

That's a very interesting prediction. Reminds me of the year that the unstoppable Sarah Baxter was supposed to win NXN and got out-kicked by both Efraimson and Cranny. Could this play out similarly?

I think 2013 NXN was on of the really great girls high schools races ever. Baxter loses her first and only high school cross country race and she was never the same runner after that. But it's interesting now to see who else was in the race. Efraimson, of course, went on to professional career, but Jones and Schweitzer both went on to win individual NCAA XC titles and some of the others on that list have won team titles.

1 Alexa Efraimson

2 Elise Cranny

3 Sarah Baxter

4 Fiona O’Keeffe

5 Taylor Werner

6 Katie Rainsberger

7 Lauren Gregory

9 Ella Donaghu

15 Danielle Jones

28 Christina Aragon

36 Bethan Knights

38 Madie Boreman

47 Karissa Schweitzer

Very interesting to see the progressions of that race. One of the best of all time. I can't wait to see where all of these women end up. As for me, it is interesting to see one person (Efraimson) evaluated against everyone else. It's like it is her against the field. fascinating. I'm rooting for her.

wow, that is a heck of a field....interesting to see how development of some athletes happens earlier and some later (ie Schweitzer)

thanks for that

A real star studded line-up. Interesting that a substantial proportion of them ended up running for Stanford U. and were dominating the PAC 12 this season

In answer to your question--in the indoor mile (a couple of times I think). At this level, you are probably right but this strategy probably won't work so well at the collegiate level or higher. When everybody else in the field is training 70 plus mpw, middle distance times and raw speed come more into play. Allie Ostrander or Karissa Schweitzer are casse in point--someone who was very good but not great in hs but jumps to near elite level after running in a high mileage collegiate program. You will find that some of these runners who are now a little below the radar screen now from obscure programs like Thorvaldson will be the ones that will be dominant in several years.