Now it gets interesting, Zane Robertson's ex-girlfriend Betty Desalegn (Jama Aden athlete) is busted for Biological Passport

Kenyan9987 wrote:

Renato, most of the people talking here have spent extended periods of time in Africa, working and living shoulder to shoulder with athletes...they know their shìt LOL

Very, very doubtful. The vast majority are from The States. Meaning, the furthest they've traveled is an all inclusive resort in Mexico.

I originally typed out a response but the geniuses who altered LR gave us a system that I can't read the Tucker thread without wiping what I typed. Anyhow there is definitely, as many have already said, something unusual about Paula's scores. When you see 0.4% it is instantly a red flag for potential epo microdosing but her hemoglobin is so low. Which might well be explained naturally but the jump to 16.2 & 0.8 is simply too dramatic and her excuse of "dehydration" doesn't appear to be supported by studies or post race facts. You also have to remember that female figures could be 10pts or 10% lower then men. But Paula's top end scores look like a man's (actually higher than the 2008 LA scores) and the one thing that we know from running history is if a female has male attributes or physiological metrics, it is a sure sign that they are cheating. What is really suspicious is how her measurements are right on the edge of where she was deemed clean by experts, this suggests an element of sophistication.

It may be because of the stricter OOC testing with the first world nations as opposed to what's going on in East Africa. It's one thing to end up on an ABP "likely doping" list and a whole another issue to be aggressively tested OOC. Doping athletes are proficient at knowing glow times and when to stop to avoid testing positive IC...nothing new there (when was the last time we heard of a IC test positive?). But OOC testing is a different story and nothing more than a cat & mouse game. Recall Fancy Bear's hacked WADA file where Jager was listed as a "likely doping " 5-star priority (+++++). Look at the notes: aggressively test OOC for an ESA. What about the East Africans? Are they aggressively testing OOC if they're suspected? Can they even find them out there in some of those remote villages in no-man's land of Ethiopia & Kenya

And you've got East Africans at the top testing positive for EPO over the past yrs. In addition to Sumgong, you have Jeptoo & Muraga. On the male side there's Ekupe (2:05) & Rutto (2:09). There are about 4 times as many East Africans testing positive for androgens (primarily norandrosterone), but I don’t think you can automatically rule out EPO use in these cases. As mentioned, the EPO-androgens and/or GH stack is popular with endurance athletes. Norandrosterone has a very long glow time & EPO doesn't (excluding CERA & NESP). These athletes may have not realized (or had poor advice) on the glow times of these androgens and were snagged IC.

And take a look at this: There's a pharmacy in Ethiopia convienently located near their national stadium that's been selling EPO to high-profile athlete...who could have imagined. ?. In one particularly case, an anonymous "high-profile" runner explains that she uses the EPO/HGH stack (imagine that) on a 45 day cycle stopping approx. one week before her targeted competition to avoid testing positive. And she probably doesn't have to worry too much about OOC testing in Ethiopia. ?

Can someone explain this to me, if a successful female runner has a hemoglobin of 13.0 (default sea level measure) and a reticulocyte % of 0.8 and they suddenly withdraw 1 litre of blood, then wait a month or two (or three) and then reinfuse. Will the new Hemoglobin level be 13.0 or higher? But this act could lower reticulocyte levels from say 0.8 to 0.4.

Dr Zorzoli wrote:

Can someone explain this to me, if a successful female runner has a hemoglobin of 13.0 (default sea level measure) and a reticulocyte % of 0.8 and they suddenly withdraw 1 litre of blood, then wait a month or two (or three) and then reinfuse. Will the new Hemoglobin level be 13.0 or higher? But this act could lower reticulocyte levels from say 0.8 to 0.4.

Yeah...and it's that act which blows the passport apart (i.e., high hgb & low retics = high off-score). Remember Liliya Shobukhova (2nd fastest ever marathon behind Paula) with her astronomically high off-score of 153? A huge increase in hgb and suppressed retics from blood doping did her in on her ABP anomalies.

I don't think athletes are doing much blood doping because it's too easy push high off-scores with the transfusions. They may be using ESAs, which would raise hgb...and retics in conjunction with each other. And if the athlete pushes the hgb too high breaching the parameters on their ABP, they can always claim they're were training at altitude, and as long as they don’t test positive for the ESA they may avoid any sanctions.

Does this recreational runner Rekrunner have a lot of strongly held beliefs about professional running or is LRC under a denial of service attack?

When looking for "other reasons" you can also look beyond doping and dope testing. The fatal flaw with this "no OOC testing in Africa" argument is the complete decade of 1990, when there was no EPO test, and no WADA. We can look to cycling in the 1990's as an indication of how strict first world nation controls were. The IAAF didn't start OOC testing for EPO (urine) until 2002, including East Africa. Even then, we know from cycling how easy it was to escape detection for these EPO (urine) tests. The lack of OOC tests in East Africa only really became "an issue" after 2009, and only for blood, when the ABP was implemented and blood could finally be used as proof of doping positives, due to the difficulty of getting the blood to a WADA certified lab within the required time, compared to most first world nations. So "testing" is not an excuse for first world nations under-performing in the 1990's and 2000's. We saw this in cycling. You asked me what I meant by "first world nations getting doping so wrong". I don't see how your Kenyan and Ethiopian links are connected to the "first world". The belief in doping is strong, going all the way to the top, and may even catch a handful of some of the top Kenyan runners, because some local doctor, manager, agent, or husband believes in it, and convinces the athlete to take it. What interests me is EPO and blood doping, enabling higher than natural performance. It's still not clear if examples like Kisorio count. Reporters buying EPO doesn't mean that much to me. These are like dramatic re-enactments of one possible speculative scenario. This is a big part of what makes Seppelt's documentaries in Kenya, and Ethiopia, so amateurish. He hasn't penetrated into the inside of any doping ring, yet still goes to "press" with all he has -- dramatic re-enactments.

I'm really just looking for convincing evidence for the wide belief that EPO can cause higher than natural performances at the top. For first world nations, we should see more parallels with cycling. If we don't, then maybe it doesn't work well for running because cycling and running are really different.

Friendly Reminder wrote:

Does this recreational runner Rekrunner have a lot of strongly held beliefs about professional running or is LRC under a denial of service attack?

The problem with "casual observers" IAAF facts is that it is just a limited subset of the facts we "know", with some slight distortions in his favor. One issue with his "real numbers" is that three of the real numbers we know for one point are 12.0, 2.8 and 15.6. One of these must be wrong since 12.0+2.8 =/= 15.6. This is where his 30% and 0.4 is coming from. He choses to discard 2.8, because that is his style and preference to go with the worst case scenario, and still claim this is based on IAAF facts. (12.0 doesn't come from the IAAF). Another scientific fact is that we can't be sure if either 12.0 and 12.8 is real, because of uncontrolled processes in 2003. This is not doubted by scientists and anti-doping bodies, but something highly doubted in this forum. Indeed it seems too low. Subjectively, either value seem low after an extended stay at altitude. But I cannot say. Experts from all organizations would have seen the whole profile, and would determine if a value between 12-13 is realistic for Paula after a stay at altitude. His analysis of 0.4 versus 0.8 "doubling" being unexpected is also not "IAAF fact", but a non-expert conclusion of his own making. (He did instruct us to "make of it what we will"). And again, we should not label it "Paula's "dehydration" excuse" -- but turn to the IAAF's definitive explanation, the one backed by science. It is not a "dehydration" excuse, but a "hemoconcentration" excuse triggered, not by temperature (although it was noted), but by strenuous exercise, which requires 2-hours (not 30 minutes or 90 minutes) to return to pre-exercise baseline values. It's not only about fluid loss, and high temperature, but also about strenuous activity causing pressure forcing fluid into interstitial tissues. Contrary to your suggestion, this is well supported by both science and post race facts, and the basis for the 2-hour rule. Paula's off-scores, two of which are still within a normal range for a female at altitude, were higher than Mo Farah's values published in the Sunday Times, and for some reason people still suspect Mo Farah, winning with slow times, of doping. We shouldn't suspect her of clairvoyently gaming the system in 2003 and 2005, against a threshold that didn't go into effect until 2009. More IAAF facts: In 2003 there was no off-score in effect at all, and in 2005, the threshold was 122 for women. None of Paula's values violated any blood threshold in effect at that time they were collected and tested -- it is misleading to say that these results were "flagged" as anomalous, until Ashenden/Parisotto analyzed a spreadsheet against population thresholds, and the Sunday Times drew their own conclusions about individual athletes.

rekrunner wrote:

I'm really just looking for convincing evidence for the wide belief that EPO can cause higher than natural performances at the top. For first world nations, we should see more parallels with cycling. If we don't, then maybe it doesn't work well for running because cycling and running are really different.

What is your definition of "at the top?" Before or after doping? ? Seriously though, isn't that subjective? Does it mean time wise? Or winning medals at major competitions? Perhaps some of both? And where do you draw the line, performance wise, for those at the top and those that are not? ?

Was Savinova at the top when she won gold in the both the 2011 WCs & London, and beat Semenya both times? (the only runner to have beaten Semenya in the 800 thus far). How about Jolanda Ceplak, who only has a bronze to her name in a major competition (Athens), but ran the 18th fastest all-time 800m. What about Ramzi? A big-time medal winner with 2 golds & 1 silver in WC's (rare double gold in 05) and the stripped gold from Beijing, and also holds the 50th fastest all-time 1500m.

All the aforementioned have confirmed EPO usage and consequently have been banned, with medals stripped in Savinova's & Ramzi's cases. Btw, Ceplak & Ramzi never ran anything close to their PBs upon returning to competition after their bans. Savinova is in the middle of serving a 4 yr ban and is probably done. And according to the WADA investigation she used steriods (oxandrolone) in conjuction with EPO. She never tested positive for either one and was able to fly under the radar for years never tripping her ABP ("likely doping" by 2 out of 3 experts, respectively). And yet she's characterized to be doped to the gills as the investigation revealed that they (doping doctors) "poured so much into her." Ramzi & Ceplak tested positive for EPO - IC, and there's no evidence of androgen usage. These are just a few examples as there are many more than can be illustrated, as others have brought up before in previous threads.

Maybe your mindset is that none of these examples are athletes "at the top" or that their EPO use didn't produce "higher than natural performances." Either way you need to define what is your definition of "at the top" and whether or not the evidence shows EPO can allow elites to push though barriers and achieve results that they normally couldn't have accomplished clean.

You guys really need to all dispense with any sort of belief that rekrunner is actually looking for or willing to consider actual evidence. He is willing and able to explain away any and all evidence that EPO works.

Fast runners who improve on EPO? They are not fast enough...extends to Mohammad Mourhit, Ramzi, etc. All not fast enough...

women who run fast on EPO? It is due to other substances...

people who participated in clinical studies on EPO and improved? not applicable because the results can't be extrapolated...

He has no burden of proof on himself...all of the evidence points to EPO working, but he does not need to post any contrary evidence...

He has said that he would accept evidence of double-blinded controlled studies which are preceeded by a 600 week controlled training block...so clearly a reasonable standard of proof

Honestly no more logical or willing to look at evidence than Jon Orange or Ghost or J.R., he just writes more coherently

it goes beyond that...i post and i get it deleted. but he can insult all day, and the brojos can accuse all day and no one minds. i call out retardo and i get deleted

+1. Obviously a troll, but better than JO. JO gave up his trolling, didn't he?

why when i click on this post it shows 5 pages yet a blank page until i hit refresh? not only did all my comments get deleted but its as if im being block from seeing this post!

mindweak wrote:

why when i click on this post it shows 5 pages yet a blank page until i hit refresh? not only did all my comments get deleted but its as if im being block from seeing this post!

This is a technical issue on Letsrun. There used to be a 6th page (more than 100 posts) but due to deletions it has gone back to 5. When you click on the thread it tries to take you to the last post on page 6 and shows a blank page. This has happened to me with other threads previously. I don't know enough about coding to know what causes this, but maybe Erik the web guy could fix this...

I do agree that inconsistent and arbitrary moderation (including some of the examples you have listed) is a major weakness on Letsrun.com and pretty infuriating. It's honestly the thing I like least about Letsrun.

I don't think it has anything to do with why the first click takes you to a blank page, though.

yeah and this whole myth that EPO doesnt work on kenyans needs to stop

mindweak wrote:

lame....i think its really annoying that the brojos delete my comments. they can call out anyone they want and its all perfect. i call out retardo and i get banned or my comments deleted. i got banned once for calling vent out....like wtf? that guy can go on and on pages and pages of insults and calling everything a joke. and yet he is protected.

look brojos you are hypocrites, and for the most part self righteous low budget journalists.

next time you talk sh*t on NOP or whoever....and then go and delete my comments you should go and slap yourself

Please, please go away.