The official 2017 HEPS CROSS COUNTRY thread

I will never understand how the Harvard men are as bad as they are. You would think they would be able to easily hire a good coach and get top athletes based on the name alone. Truly mind boggling.

I think Harvard will sweep the bottom of the pack positions.

The Harvard women have been trounced in each competition with another Ivy squad so far this season (Dartmouth, Cornell & Brown at BiB; Columbia & Penn at Wisco; Princeton & Yale at HYP). They have perhaps one contender for a top 20 finish - a freshman - but otherwise, there isn't anything else too impressive. It's sad considering how they won this meet last year, but the talent is just gone. Princeton women did something similar recently - they won in 2015 and then came 6th last year (not as drastic), while the Princeton men went from 1 in 1983 to 9 in 1984 (back when Army and Navy were still in the conference)

The Harvard men also have one top 20 contender - also a freshman - but have also been soundly beaten by other Ivy squads at HYP and Princeton XC. Yale is the unknown factor to me as their DNFs at PreNationals do not help me provide enough evidence to show how strong their squad is. Sure, you could do runner-to-runner comparison in those races, and if that be, I still think Dartmouth had stronger contenders than Yale at PreNats. Considering how Yale beat Harvard this year on a 6k course, I'm giving them that benefit of a doubt.

FYI - the last time a single school swept the team and individual titles across both races was in 2010, with Princeton, Cabral, and Banfich. This first happened in 1993 when Cornell swept (with Clas and Woeller as the individual champs). Three other times have there been 3 of 4:

Columbia got 3 of 4 back in 2004 (did not get men's individual winner).

Dartmouth got 3 of 4 in 1994 (did not get women's individual winner) and 1995 (did not get men's individual winner).

Just in case you were wondering...

Ok fans. Here goes. A baby is on the way to the Johnson household so I havent been paying attention like in year's past. Note

I haven't called coaches, figured out who was sick, etc and this is only about 1/3rd of the 3,700 words I wrote about the 2015 race.

Penn, Columbia and Princeton are your three potential winners barring something really weird happening. That shouldn't be a surprise. We can talk about coaching, development, recruiting etc but just take out the seniors from last year's meet and here is the score.

Princeton 46 (1, 2, 7, 14, 22)

Columbia 69 (4, 6, 13, 19 , 27)

Penn 72 (3, 5, 12, 23, 29 )

Brown 96 (11, 15, 16. 20, 34)

Yale 115 8, 17, 21, 33, 36)

Cornell 139 (10, 18, 24, 39, 48)

Dartmouth 174 (25, 28, 32,44, 45)

Harvard 216 (9, 42, 47, 52, 66)

I bet the results end up likely end up being pretty close to that this year. Last year, the top 3 teams - PCP - were better than everyone else and Brown was a solid fourth and the other teams need a lot of help with Harvard and Dartmouth having no chance before the year even started.

Of the 3 contenders, Penn has has the best year of anyone but that doesn't mean much (At Wisco, Penn's #1 guy was just 69th and they were 24th. ) as Princeton basically has just practiced all season long and put all of their eggs in the Heps basket. After seeing a few guys get lost to the injury bug in the past, coach Vigilante has basically treated the entire regular season as practice in team running. He seems to be operating under the mindset of , "I've got the most talented teams but they are a bit fragile and more mid-d oriented. I don't want to get them injured or burn them out by racing them hard. If they show up healthy, they should rise to the occasion and win."

We'll see if that works tomorrow.

I think it's best to compare the top 7 for Penn and Princeton from their last meet.

Here are their track credentials and Heps finish for last year.

Penn

Kevin Monogue - JR - 8:19/14:21/29:25 - 24th last year.

Chris Lucianao - SR- 8:19/14:11/30:06 - 9th last year

William Daly - SO- 9:00 steeple - 54th last year

Patrick Hally - SR - 8:15/14:45 - 12th last year

Colin Daly - SO - 8:58 steeple. - 7th last year

Aaron Groff - SO - 14:48/30:54 - 47th last year

Ryan Renken - FR - 9:02 in CAlif. - NA.

Princeton

Noah Kauppila - SR - 3:43/8:19/14:07 - 26th last year

Conor Lundy - SO - 8:15/14:09 - 3rd last year (94th at NCAAs)

Garrett O'Toole - Sr - 3:39 - 56th last year

William Paulson - SR - 3:42/8:07/14:40 - 2nd last year

Robert Stone - Sr 8:21/14:27/ - didn't run Heps (82nd in 2015)

Wolfgang Peck - Sr- 14:32/30:42 - 61st last year

Viraj Deokar - So - 14:29 - 14th last year

Comparing Penn and Princeton, Princeton gets a big edge in two key areas - low sticks and experience. Normally men's titles are won on the back of junior and seniors and 5 of Princeton's top 7 are upperclassmen (Penn's entire top 5 were junior and seniors last year) And their two underclassmen were exceptional last year - Lundy was 3rd as a frosh and Deokar came from way behind to finish 14th. It's also hard to win without some low sticks and Princeton returns two from the top 5 last year in Paulson and Lundy.

That being said, Penn returns two from the top 10. And Penn has the edge in that more of their guys are true distance runners. Princeton leans a little more mid-d. If this was a 4 x mile with a rabbit, I might be wondering if Princeton could break 16:00. Seriously. But Heps is 5 miles and none of Princetons' guys have 10k Prs of note.

Columbia gets mentioned last as I realized in looking up Penn's stats that Columbai's 5 man average was 22 seconds per mile worse than Penn's in the last meet. They also were crushed by Indiana at a meet and Penn just beat Indiana at Wisconsin. Columbia's top guy at Wisco wasnt even in the top 100. As a result, they aren't winning unless the ultimate of home field advantages plays out. I'm wondering if I should actually be looking at Cornell/Brown.

But here are the stats for Columbia.

Ryan Thomas - SR - 8:10/14:00 - 85th last year. 45th in 2015.

Lucky Schreiner - JR - 14:55 - didn't run Heps last year.

Brian Zabilski - JR - 8:09/14:00 - 13th last year. Made NCAAs.

Dan Schumacher - JR - 8:33/14:57 - didn't run Heps last year

Spencer Haik - SR- 2:21/4:04/8:21/14:41 - 25th last year

Dylan Tarpy - SR - 14:38 - 33rd last year

Kenny Vasbinder - SO - 14:23 - 11th last yr. Made NCAAs.

Ok, in compiling those stats, I realized that in their last meet Vasbinder was a DNF. So that would really hurt their team score. But it's not a good sign to have your projected #1 or #2 DNFing a race two weeks before conference. I guess I can make a scenario where they win Heps.

Their two NCAA runners last year - Vasbinder and Zabilski r- un well along with their 14 flat guy who was their #1 at Wisco. Fnin a #4 and #5 is easier than a top 3. But for all I know Vasbinder could be out with an injury.

Thus I think Penn or Princeton is your winner. Here is my prediction. If there is a dominant winner, I think it's definitely going to be Princeton. There two top 5 returners in Paulson and Lundy have both only raced once. Normally that would be a sign for concern but they are really really good. Paulson only raced once last year before Heps and ended up second. If they both get in the top 5 and take Kauppila and O'Toole (who hasn't done anything in college xc but was great at it in HS) with them and Deokar does anything close to what he did last year, they win easily.

But Penn could also win . Why have Paulson and Lundy barely raced? OToole and Kauppila are stars on the track - and tomorrow's race is an xc race.

But the rigors of VCP are overrated in my mind. First of all, the footing is solid - much more like a track than a muddy field. 3 of the miles are totally flat. And look at all of the 800 guys that have done well there in the past. Jaworksi (1:46 guy was 9th), Wyner (1:48 guy was 2nd), etc.

If my 6'5 inch miler roommate whose body wasn't designed for VCP, Scott Anderson (3:38-9 lifetime pb), could finish 8th on VCP as a junior, then certainly the O'Toole's and Kappula's of the should be able to get in the top 15.

Prediction: I was going to hold off on the predictions as I'm fearing a jinx and every single team in pro sports that I've rooted for in the last 2 months has lost, but I guess I need to make one now .I'll go for the double jinx.

Princeton FTW and Deluca (Cornell) FTW.

I haven't talked about the individual race but Deluca was 4th as a frosh and has been running well this year. It seems like he'll be contending with the Princeton guys and Monogue. Gowans beat Monogue by 8 seconds at Paul Short.

Our friends at hepstrack have their preview up.I guess I should have read their mens preview before I wrote mine. Oh well, at least mine was unbiased.

They have a poll and Penn is the #1 choice, brown #2 and princeton #3.

http://hepstrack.com/blog/2017/10/24/2017-hepsxc-mens-race-preview/

We'll be posting the letsrun.com poll results soon as well.

How in the world??? wrote:

I will never understand how the Harvard men are as bad as they are. You would think they would be able to easily hire a good coach and get top athletes based on the name alone. Truly mind boggling.

Their new distance coach Gibby is good. I'll be shocked if they are last much longer.

How in the world??? wrote:

You would think they would be able to easily hire a good coach and get top athletes based on the name alone.

You hit at part of the problem without realizing it when you said "Based on the name alone."

Think about it. Who has been choosing Harvard for the last 20 years? It's kids who only care about the name and are into vanity.

If you were really good and smart, you'd take the full ride to Stanford. If you are Ivy good and name conscious, why wouldn't you go to Princeton? Better facilities, better team, better weather. The only kids that would choose Harvard are the douches who care only about name. Douches aren't tough. Remember when they got that sub-4 miler from the UK? He went sub-4 in HS!! If he was American, he'd be viewed as one of the top 10 recruits in US history. Did he ever do anything?

When I was getting recruited by the Ivies, I chose the one that I liked the best. But kids at high school told me, "How can you turn down Harvard?"

I guess people are reading the preview as after publishing it, I got a text from someone saying that Zabilski and Vasbinder both fell at Wisco so that may explain their poor showing there. So Columbia's odds go up.

They still got beat handily by Indiana in the meet before and Penn beat Indiana at Wisco, so I'd still put them at #3 but we'll known soon enough.

Didn’t know about those Columbia guys falling. Definitely will make tomorrow more interesting....

Now people are demanding I write a preview. That takes a lot of time.... Not sure if I'll do it or not since no one will have time to read it.

Instead of focusing on positives, lets think of negatives"Who is going to finish last on the men's side?"

I only say that as it takes a lot of time and effort to analyze the winner but last should be easier and this question came up during a LetsRun conference call yesterday when I asked Jonathan Gault if he'd be at Heps and he said, "no" and then quipped something along the lines of, "Dartmouth had better figure out a way to beat Yale or somebody so they don't finish last."

That raised my intellectual curiosity. I hadn't been thinking about who would finish last. So here goes.

History says it won't be Dartmouth. They haven't finished last since 1965 (50+ years) when they somehow managed to not record a team score at Heps (they aren't the only team do this, Brown also did it in 1981).

It's not going to be Brown who has been last 5 of the last 7 years. Brown looks poised to finish in the top half for just the 2nd time in the last decade.

Based on regional rankings (or lack thereof), it looks like last will come down to Dartmouth (13th NE), Yale (14th NE) or Harvard (not in top 15 in NE).

Yale hasn't been last in 10 years (2007). My French Bulldog will be coming to her first Heps wearing her Yale jersey. I hope for Weldon and my dad history doesn't repeat itself. At my first Heps in 1992, I was rooting for Yale and they were last on the men's side.

Harvard, which amazingly (in a bad way) has only been in the top 4 at Heps twice since I started going to Heps 25 years ago (1993 and 2013), is the lowest ranked team and were last last year. They were trounced earlier in the year by Yale so I guess it will be them??

rojo wrote:

Harvard, which amazingly (in a bad way) has only been in the top 4 at Heps twice since I started going to Heps 25 years ago (1993 and 2013), is the lowest ranked team and were last last year. They were trounced earlier in the year by Yale so I guess it will be them??

That stat totally shocks me. The league is super deep but I wouldn't have bet that one team was so consistently out of the top half.

The Yale men haven't won since the war- WWII. What's the next longest streak? Just the number of teams involved says Yale should win before the Rangers win a World Series or the Cowboys another Super Bowl, but I think I'm sports jinxed.

As of 7:30am this morning, the HTC poll results on which teams will win the championship races:

Hepstrack.com men’s team champion poll results (202 votes):

Penn – 27.72%

Brown – 27.23%

Princeton – 18.81 %

Columbia – 11.39%

Cornell – 8.42%

Dartmouth – 3.47%

Harvard – 1.49%

Yale – 1.47%

Writer's aside - where did all of the Brown fans come from?

Hepstrack.com women’s team champion poll results (150 votes):

Columbia – 31.33%

Dartmouth – 16.67%

Cornell and Princeton – 15.33%

Yale – 8%

Brown – 6%

Penn – 5.33%

Harvard – 2%

Also, I'm REALLY sad with you Heps fans. Only three people participated in the women's poll on LRC? Geez.

LetsRun poll results where you had to vote 1-8.

Heps Men’s Poll

1. Pennsylvania (2) 75

2. Princeton (3) 73

3. Columbia (4) 70

4. Brown (1) 56

5. Dartmouth (1) 36

6. Yale 35

7. Cornell 33

8. Harvard 18

Heps Women’s Poll

1. Columbia (3) 24

2. Cornell 15

3. Princeton 14

4. Pennsylvania 13

5. Yale 13

6. Dartmouth 12

7. Brown 9

8. Harvard 8

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/10/ncaa-cross-country-fan-polls-new-mexico-edges-oregon-tiebreaker-1-nau-1s-country/

I got up early and was ready to go and then got cold feet. Baby is due in less than a month, dog hasn't been feeling well. It's with great sadness that I'm officially announcing that my 45 straight Heps streak will be coming to an end.

Can someone please get the official starter to give me a moment of silence or something? Yes. I know someone like Samara is probably well over 100+. I wonder what the record is.

And I was feeling pretty confident, as I had a 37.5% chance of supporting a winner.

https://twitter.com/letsrundotcom/status/923907086089621504

Sorry to hear that, rojo. And with a baby on the way (congrats by the way), trips to Heps will come few and far between, unless you bring the baby long and start exposing it to the Heps experience.

Women's race is underway.

https://twitter.com/IvyLeague/status/923927548362403840

It will be interesting to see who is leading the women's race at 3.1 k. Cornell women have been getting out hard - ahaed of all ivy schools this year - but fading in some big meets. Against a smaller field, could they possibly hold on?

So much for that thought. Here are the 3.1k splits

PLACE TEAM 3.1K 1 2 3 4 5 (6) (7)

1 Columbia

64

1 10 12 20 21 (22) (25)

2 Dartmouth

84

13 14 15 19 23 (30) (38)

3 Cornell

95

3 6 24 28 34 (37) (44)

4 Princeton

116

9 18 26 31 32 (33) (40)

5 Yale

117

4 11 17 42 43 (49) (56)

6 Brown

140

7 27 29 36 41 (46) (50)

7 Penn

144

2 5 39 47 51 (52) (53)

8 Harvard

152

8 16 35 45 48 (54) (55)

PLACE ATHLETE 3.1K PTS

1 Nell Crosby

Columbia [SR]

10:34.1

-

1

2 Abigail Hong

Penn [SR]

10:34.3

0.2

3 Erin McLaughlin

Cornell [SR]

10:34.6

0.5

2

4 Andrea Masterson

Yale [JR]

10:34.6

0.5

5 Danielle Orie

Penn [FR]

10:34.9

0.8

6 Gabrielle Orie

Cornell [FR]

10:35.2

1.1

3

7 Carleen Jeffers

Brown [JR]

10:35.5

1.4

8 Abbe Goldstein

Harvard [FR]

10:35.9

1.8

9 Megan Curham

Princeton [SR]

10:36.5

2.4

4

10 Erin Melly

Columbia [SR]

10:36.8

2.7

5

11 Sevanne Ghazarian

Yale [FR]

10:36.9

2.8

12 Fiona Danieu

Columbia [SO]

10:37.4

3.3

6

13 Julia Stevenson

Dartmouth [SO]

10:37.8

3.7

7

14 Leigh Moffett

Dartmouth [SR]

10:38.6

4.5

8

15 Ella Ketchum

Dartmouth [FR]

10:39.2

5.1

9

16 Elianna Shwayder

Harvard [SR]

10:40.5

6.4

17 Kayley Delay

Yale [FR]

10:40.8

6.7

18 Gabrielle Forrest

Princeton [JR]

10:41.3

7.2

10

19 Olivia Lantz

Dartmouth [JR]

10:41.3

7.2

11

20 Erin Gregoire

Columbia [JR]

10:41.8

7.7

12

21 Abigail McLaughlin

Columbia [SO]

10:42.6

8.5

13

22 Bianca Alonzo

Columbia [SO]

10:43.3

9.2

14

23 Lillian Anderson

Dartmouth [JR]

10:43.7

9.6

15

24 Shannon Hugard

Cornell [SR]

10:43.9

9.8

16

25 Sarah Hardie

Columbia [SR]

10:44.8

10.7

17

26 Sophie Cantine

Princeton [FR]

10:45.5

11.4

18

27 Megan Ratcliffe

Brown [SR]

10:45.5

11.4

28 Briar Brumley

Cornell [JR]

10:45.7

11.6

19

29 Libby Kokes

Columbia [JR]

10:46.3

12.2

30 Emma Sloan

Brown [JR]

10:49.8

15.7

31 Glendora Murphy

Dartmouth [FR]

10:50.3

16.2

20

32 Allie Klimkiewicz

Princeton [JR]

10:50.3

16.2

21

33 Rachel Granovsky

Princeton [SO]

10:50.6

16.5

22

34 Madison Offstein

Princeton [JR]

10:51.0

16.9

23

35 Taylor Knibb

Cornell [SO]

10:51.1

17.0

24

36 Chloe Binczyk

Columbia [SR]

10:51.5

17.4

37 Gillian Meeks

Harvard [SO]

10:52.0

17.9

38 Clare Peabody

Brown [SR]

10:52.1

18.0

39 Leya Salis

Cornell [FR]

10:52.6

18.5

25

40 Bridget O'Neill

Dartmouth [SR]

10:52.9

18.8

26

41 Marin Warner

Penn [JR]

10:53.2

19.1

Here's a real nugget of info I got for everyone. Harvard Yale Penn and Brown went 1-2-3-4 last year. This year, they are going 5-6-7-8 halfway through the race.

At 5.1 k, Columbia looks like they will be the winner.

n-Progress Standings

PLACE TEAM 5.1K 1 2 3 4 5 (6) (7)

1 Columbia 63

3 12 15 16 17 (21) (28)

2 Dartmouth 76

9 10 13 19 25 (29) (31)

3 Princeton 98

1 18 23 26 30 (33) (42)

4 Yale 101

2 8 14 36 41 (51) (53)

52 Cornell 102

4 7 24 27 40 (43) (47)

6 Brown 129

5 20 32 34 38 (39) (45)

7 Penn 137

6 11 35 37 48 (50) (52)

8 Harvard 215

22 44 46 49 54 (55) (56)

1 Gabrielle Forrest

Princeton [JR]

18:11.5

7:30.3

17

1

2 Andrea Masterson

Yale [JR]

18:14.0

7:39.4|2.5

2

2

3 Nell Crosby

Columbia [SR]

18:14.1

7:40.0|2.6

2

3

4 Erin McLaughlin

Cornell [SR]

18:19.9

7:45.4|8.4

1

4

5 Megan Ratcliffe

Brown [SR]

18:21.6

7:36.2|10.1

22

5

6 Danielle Orie

Penn [FR]

18:22.0

7:47.1|10.5

1

6

7 Gabrielle Orie

Cornell [FR]

18:22.6

7:47.5|11.1

1

7

8 Sevanne Ghazarian

Yale [FR]

18:24.1

7:47.3|12.6

3

8

9 Olivia Lantz

Dartmouth [JR]

18:27.2

7:45.9|15.7

10

9

10 Julia Stevenson

Dartmouth [SO]

18:27.7

7:49.9|16.2

3

10

11 Abigail Hong

Penn [SR]

18:31.0

7:56.8|19.5

9

11

12 Erin Melly

Columbia [SR]

18:34.1

7:57.3|22.6

2

12

13 Ella Ketchum

Dartmouth [FR]

18:38.4

7:59.3|26.9

2

13

14 Kayley Delay

Yale [FR]

18:38.6

7:57.8|27.1

3

14

15 Fiona Danieu

Columbia [SO]

18:39.1

8:01.7|27.6

3

15

16 Erin Gregoire

Columbia [JR]

18:39.5

7:57.7|28.0

4

16

17 Bianca Alonzo

Columbia [SO]

18:42.7

7:59.5|31.2

5

17

18 Megan Curham

Princeton [SR]

18:43.2

8:06.8|31.7

9

18

19 Leigh Moffett

Dartmouth [SR]

18:43.3

8:04.7|31.8

5

19

20 Carleen Jeffers

Brown [JR]

18:46.5

8:11.1|35.0

13

20

21 Sarah Hardie

Columbia [SR]

18:49.8

8:05.1|38.3

4

21

22 Abbe Goldstein

Harvard [FR]

18:50.3

8:14.4|38.8

14

22

23 Allie Klimkiewicz

Princeton [JR]

18:53.0

8:02.7|41.5

9

23

24 Shannon Hugard

Cornell [SR]

18:53.8

8:09.9|42.3

24

25 Lillian Anderson

Dartmouth [JR]

18:57.3

8:13.7|45.8

2

25

26 Rachel Granovsky

Princeton [SO]

18:59.6

8:09.1|48.1

7

26

27 Briar Brumley

Cornell [JR]

19:00.1

8:14.4|48.6

1

27

28 Libby Kokes

Columbia [JR]

19:00.3

8:14.0|48.8

1

28

29 Glendora Murphy

Dartmouth [FR]

19:00.4

8:10.1|48.9

2

29

30 Sophie Cantine

Princeton [FR]

19:01.4

8:16.0|49.9

4

30

31 Bridget O'Neill

Dartmouth [SR]

19:01.4

8:08.6|49.9

9

31

32 Lucy Srour

Brown [JR]

19:03.8

8:09.0|52.3

11

32

33 Madison Offstein

Princeton [JR]

19:04.6

8:13.7|53.1

1

33

34 Clare Peabody

Brown [SR]

19:07.8

8:15.7|56.3

4

34

35 Karli Visconto

Penn [JR]

19:09.1

8:05.0|57.6

30

35

36 Abigail McLaughlin

Columbia [SO]

19:09.7

8:27.1|58.2

15

37 Kate Raphael

Yale [SR]

19:10.8

8:16.0|59.3

7

36

38 Marin Warner

Penn [JR]

19:11.2

8:18.0|59.7

3

37

39 Allison Bellows

Brown [JR]

19:12.6

8:09.3|1:01.1

22

38

40 Emma Sloan

Brown [JR]

19:15.5

8:25.7|1:04.0

10

39