Looks like Jim Walmsley is running a mountain race tomorrow - predictions?

Jim was consistently very good in 2016 (and now at Tarawera). Very dominant, except for WS when he got lost. He was consistently not so good in 2015 and 2014 in all the ultras he did (and USA XC if we bother to include that).He got discharged from the AF so he had more time and support to train. The dude improved by leaps in bounds starting only in 2016. Before that he didn't show much promise at all, except on the track. But lots of guys have run sub 14:00 for 5k. Even some of the ultras guys. Altitude training in Flag? Learning Curve? No. He ran for AF and trained up high for years. He has run ultras since 2014. Jim is obviously very talented and has been running for quite some time. He was not much of a cross country runner in college as his forte apparently was the mile-3k-3k steeple- 5k based on his times.

zzzz wrote:

Dude, you post this same dumb argument every thread. You can't comprehend why some isn't running within a couple percent of their potential every time, regardless of circumstances like focus, training/not really training, learning, being tired, etc. Real runners are not always in top shape! Plenty of elite men will get chicked if they have a bad day and still choose to finish in a long race. Just dig into any top marathon results where you have 2:20 women, and you'll see elite men that have imploded and are chicked, or would have been if they didn't DNF. In previous threads, you where harping on his 1:07 or 1:08 half and saying that is talent level LOL, while ignoring that that is a workout effort or not in shape effort for any 13:52 runner.

Mo Farah trafeh wrote:

Goodkidmaadcity wrote:

Gonna go out on a limb and say a dude who got 42nd at usa xc as a previous poster mentioned is not all that special.

6.2 miles? He beat his competition by more than that today.

ah, the old "it's really far so it's impressive" argument.

Howard Dean wrote:

Goodkidmaadcity wrote:

Gonna go out on a limb and say a dude who got 42nd at usa xc as a previous poster mentioned is not all that special.

Gonna go out on a limb and say that you are special, but not the kind of special you think you are.

If you think what Walmlsey is doing right now isn't special then you have the same intelligence as the average Trump protestor.

Think before you write, idiot.

i thought about it again, and when i think of US running greats/all-time great US performances, i will think about guys like ryun, shorter, rupp, etc...not a guy who got 42nd at USA cross one year.

also, so sensitive about the topic my guy! are you Jim's dad or something? lol

Canova Caknows wrote:

Mo Farah trafeh wrote:

6.2 miles? He beat his competition by more than that today.

ah, the old "it's really far so it's impressive" argument.

Yeah and unfortunately already more popular and becoming more lucrative than your little 5k. How's the Nitro clown show going in Austin land?

my point being that usually runners of GOAT quality smash it out of their park in their first year or race in ultra running. This seems to be true with the track and roadie guys, even if they aren't running full time and haven't trained 100%. They are just that talented and have experience from running for a long time in school.

Ultramarathons are a great equalizer and the margins of victory are usually much smaller in a competitive race. Jonas Budd getting 2nd at Comrades, World 100km, or shaving time off his CR at Ultravassen for example.

Look at a guy like Zach Miller. 31 minute 10k runner. Trains his a$$ of at altitude, while chopping wood. He was instantly a star when he debuted in the ultra world nearly taking down Max King's CR at JFK and then beating Krar and Canaday at LS50 by several minutes.

Hayden Hawks is another guy. Similar 5k best to Jim and trains up to 140mpw. Wins Speedgoat on a whim last summer and then goes head to head with Zach Miller who beats him by a measly 2 minutes at North Face over 50 miles. Close race and a solid battle until the end.

I'm just saying Jim's margin of victory and improvement has been insanely huge starting only 10 months ago, and his quick progression to the top is likely unprecedented.

Nope, just a keen observer of colossal stupidity on your part.

Factoid wrote:

He was consistently not so good in 2015 and 2014 in all the ultras he did (and USA XC if we bother to include that).

He got discharged from the AF so he had more time and support to train.

The dude improved by leaps in bounds starting only in 2016. Before that he didn't show much promise at all, except on the track. But lots of guys have run sub 14:00 for 5k. Even some of the ultras guys.

Altitude training in Flag? Learning Curve? No. He ran for AF and trained up high for years. He has run ultras since 2014.

Jim is obviously very talented and has been running for quite some time. He was not much of a cross country runner in college as his forte apparently was the mile-3k-3k steeple- 5k based on his times.

You are the one that always includes that USA XC result. Do you talk sh!t every time Manzano runs around 4:10 in a mile race? Or when Ryan Hall runs a 2:17 when he was still pulling in the big bucks?

Just for kicks, I looked up the results of the 2016 Boston Marathon. I see 2:04 runner Tsegaye Mekonnen ran 2:22:21, 2:06 runner Michael Kipyego ran 2:27, 2:09 runner Jackson Kiprop ran 2:24:44, 2:09 runner Cuthbert Nyasango ran 2:22:02, and 2:11 runner Solonei Da Silva ran 2:24:54. That's just one race, and not counting the fast dudes that might have DNFed because they were just as slow or slower on that day. My point: it makes absolutely no sense to point out the slow performances when you are talking about talent and capability.

Your comment about being discharged from the Air Force and having more time to train doesn't mean a thing. From various articles, he started out interested in trails/ultra, but was just dabbling, trying it out with limited training consistency and dedication.

Even his Air Force results seem to indicate that he wasn't all in, dedicated, and in a good groove with his training except for his senior year. That's not a surprise. Most top high school runners don't make the same impact at the college level. For whatever reason, running isn't the top focus for even talented runners all the time, or they have a difficult transition. If he had 4 years of focused, consistent training in college, like Rupp for example (and that's NOT the norm), I'm sure he would have been even faster in college since he seemed to have only one good year. Anyone who makes Footlocker Nationals (I think you were the one to point that out in a different thread) and finishes midpack there has massive talent.

Factoid wrote:

Look at a guy like Zach Miller. 31 minute 10k runner. Trains his a$$ of at altitude, while chopping wood. He was instantly a star when he debuted in the ultra world nearly taking down Max King's CR at JFK

You know nothing, he was working on a cruise ship, running hallway stairs and readmill inclines with occasional port long runs in random cities before that race. Not chopping wood, not living at altitude. Im crying your so dumb

Sage? is it you?

zzzz wrote:

Even his Air Force results seem to indicate that he wasn't all in, dedicated, and in a good groove with his training except for his senior year.

Correction: Walmsley had an average freshman year, good sophmore year (13:56 5000, and within 5 seconds of Hilary Bor and Cam Levins, who were juniors, at Pre-Nationals in XC), regressed his junior year, and came back his senior to a bit better than his sophmore year in track (13:52). Anyway, seems like he had more talent in college than his PRs showed with sub-14 as a soph, and a more continuous development through his junior year would have yielded better track PRs.

I looked at Hayden Hawks' profile on athletic.net too. Hawks had a consistent progression from freshman to senior years in college, topping out with a 13:53 in track, and excellent results in XC by his senior year (2 seconds behind Ben Saarel at NCAA nationals, 35th place).

I'd say that Walmsley has more talent as seen in his best high school results and his underclassman 5000 time, but Hawks had better training in college. Hawks and Max King never made Footlocker nationals in high school, and King's 5000 PR of 13:56 wasn't run until he was 31, when he had been a pro for years. So the similar 5000 PRs don't indicate similar talent.

According the the article below, Walmsley was running 1-2 times a week and getting into road biking when he was in CA for 9 months doing training for his AF job (looks like 2013). Then he moved to MT for his job, and got into trail running because he was interested in hiking and would camp out and do runs from that central location to bag peaks and stuff like that. (I can relate to that.) He didn't have the idea to race trails and ultra until 2014, when he saw the UTMB while he happened to be in Europe, and that woke him up to the idea of trying out ultras.

So it looks like Walmsley's first ultras in 2014 were coming off of a year of 1-2 days a week of casual running plus cycling, then running for the sake of enjoying the peaks/outdoors of MT rather than racing. It makes perfect sense that his first several ultras were not amazing. But not bad... won two trail races, got killed at Speedgoat, then won at JFK. Less than a year in, he was 3 minutes behind reigning ultra runner of the year Krar at a race in Moab, ahead of Tim Tollefson and Max King at Lake Sonoma.

By contrast, Hayden Hawks was already training hard 120 mile weeks in the mountains by the time of TNF50 last year. The level of training they had behind them at the time of their respective ultra debuts and first year were not even close to comparable.

This thread is LR in a nutshell.

Only a weapons grade retard could even begin to claim Walmsley is anything other than an exceptional runner.

jealousy run rampant

Sorry to break it to you guys but this guy is on PEDS and we all known it, he made way to big of jump in a year and a half. We want him to be clean but he doesn.t

Goodkidmaadcity wrote:

co wrote:

He wins in CR 7:23.

What this shows is what $100,000+ year in the bank thanks to sponsors does for a full-time runner. HOKA had to pay big but they will get the ROI. Dude is special.

Gonna go out on a limb and say a dude who got 42nd at usa xc as a previous poster mentioned is not all that special.

Gonna go out on a limb and say that the guy who couldn't even finish the Dubai marathon is not all that special.

duzn wrote:

Sorry to break it to you guys but this guy is on PEDS and we all known it, he made way to big of jump in a year and a half. We want him to be clean but he doesn.t

Most of us don't seem to think so, though I wouldn't ever say no way for anyone I am not personally close to.

Compare his time to Camille's women's winning time. Her time is only 21% slower. She didn't have a great year last year, and her 50K IAU WC win in 2015 3:20:58 was the equivalent of a 2:48 marathon performance, unless the course was hilly or something. If she's in 2:48 marathon shape, 2:48 is 21% slower than 2:18. Or if she is in 2:45 marathon shape, the men's equivalent is 2:16. Proportionally to Camille's time, Walmsley's time seems reasonable.

Certainly seems to summarize Sage's input.

i'm just average wrote:

jealousy run rampant

I think if this guy is as good as people say as he needs to ditch the ultra running and focus on the Marathon, if hes not PEDing, then he can hit OTQ easily. The issue is PEDs aren't even tested for for crap in Ultra running which is why its flooded with cheaters.