M. Keflezighi has an outside chance at a medal, but it would be safe to bet against him at getting one.
Alan Culpepper and Abdi would both do well to get top 7- 12at best as with Clint Wells, Brad Hauser, and Bob Kennedy. Dan Browne could run with the leaders for 7 k, but would end up top 7 - 10. The 10000m crew could surprise America if they stepped up 2-3 notches this year.
Who will make the team?
Go Deena and Marla!!!
heartoftexas
Vipam -
All of the above. : )
If I remember correctly, Gebrsellasie ran 27:12 with a 25 flat last 200, and 3 others right on his tail.
Olympic and WR events are usually somewhat tactical, meaning lots of surges and change of pace, or run in poor conditions, or both.
The american runners ran their PR's in ideal conditions with pacers. Yet those times are still nowhere near 26:50 or faster, which is what they would at least need to be capable of running to medal.
I didn't say they'd need to run that time, but they do need to be capable of running it. And so far they aren't.
Also these major events have heats to qualify.
It would be a good accomplishment if any american makes the final. If they get in the top 6 or 10 that would be great.
But unless everyone else falls down or blows up, they don't have a chance to medal.
Really, do you think any american runner can run 26:50 or better right now, and have a championship kick (5:00 last 2000m) on the end of it?
And if so, then whom might that be.
The prior message was meant to read Olympic and "WC" events.
dunes runner
I understood perfectly what you meant by stating they would need to be able to run 26:50 in order to medal in a more tactial race at the Worlds/Olympics; however, my friend not MANY elite athletes are capable of that:
26:22.75 .Haile Gebreselassie (Eth)......Hengelo '98
26:27.85..Paul Tergat (Ken)..............Brussels '97
26:36.26..Paul Koech (Ken)...............Oslo /97
26:38.08..Salah Hissou (Mor).............Brussels '96
26:49.38..Sammy Kipketer (Ken)...........Brussels '02
26:49.90..Assefa Mezegebu (Eth)..........Brussels '02
26:50.20..Richard Limo (Ken).............Brussels '02
26:50.67..Albert Chepkirui (Ken).........Brussels '02
26:52.87..John Cheruiyot Korir (Ken).....Brussels '02
26:58.38...Yobes Ondeki (Ken)-retired
27:04.20...Abraham Chebil (Ken)..........Stanford '01
~~
As you can see there are only 9 men to ever run faster than 26:55 and not all of them will be at the Worlds (Remember Kenyan will be the only country with 4 10000m runners, maybe they will be of the above group? Maybe not) It is safe to say that there will not be more than 5 people at the starting line capable of running 26:50 in a ideal, pace raced. If the Americans were to take charge of the race and run the 1st 5000m in 13:39 there wouldn't be much surging by ANYONE!
Surging is not done at such a fast pace and if it is only 1 or 2 athletes would be capable of substaining such punishment. I am also going with the fact that I think Meb and Alan will be in better shape than their 27:13 and 27:33 (respectfully) pr's. Believe me if our women X-COUNTRY TEAM could blossom and pull a SILVER in one year, Meb could improve slightly to be a medal threat ie BRONZE,4th, or 5th!!
Vipam
This Sunday in Seville Spain Kenenisa Bekele will go against the strongest x-country field assemble this season!
Kamathi, Chebili, Fabian, to name just a few. The entire story is on
and the field is GREAT. If and when Kenenisa demolish this field by more than 10 seconds, the GOLD medal on the Long Course at the 2003 X-Country Championships is good as his! One of Spain's top runners
stated , "I will do my best but, Kenenisa is nearly unbeatable now"! Can he go five for five? Last x-country race he lost was second place in the SENIOR short course as a JUNIOR; however, he won the junior race by over 20 seconds in the same meet!
Vipam
I think that 2 Americans need to make the final and need to work together for much of the race. No American can ever handle the surges and if they have no kick they will get blasted, and if they do they aren't in position to use it. So they better get pretty damn good at handling that kind of pace and I don't think they realistically can do that. Why don't Meb and Alan get a couple of other runners(or at least just with eachother) and agree to run a hard even pace. That way you can't get gapped when a surge is thrown in and you catch them when the surge is done. Definately does NOT secure a medal but imho its their best shot.
atrrunner and dunes runner
Assuming that Meb makes the team and shows up in better shape than 2001 and 2002 (when he ran 27:13 and 27:20 10000m) and knowing there has never been a 10000m Championship race run faster than 27:05.
Of the 11 individuals who have run AT LEAST 9 seconds faster than Meb- 1 retired (Yobes Ondeki), 2 committed to the 5000m (Sammy Kipketer and Abraham Chebil), 1 committed to the Marathon (Paul Tergat)-leaving only 7. Of those seven NONE are known front-runners and all have their pr's from even-paced races, like Meb. A 13:38 first 5k would have Meb in contention and considering that he finishes with a second 5k faster than the first-kick or no kick-he will medal. ITS NOT LIKE 27:10 is run REGULARLY in CHAMPIONSHIP RACES. A even pace 27:10 will medal just about EVERYTIME. If Meb is healthy he is smart enough, more experience and confident enough to attempt to Medal!
Vipam
In fact only ONE championship race has ever been run faster than 27:10 and 27:14 got bronze.
Ritz will run faster than them all and I can watch you all go boo hoo :)
Enough already with the Meb or USA chances at a medal debate. Can anyone beat Kenenisa tomorrow or even challenge him, if so who? I don't see anyone challenging him til track season.
10k runner
Kenenisa will be challenge for part of the race, the field is too strong for him to be able to romp or glide away early.
Charles Kamathi (Ken)-2001 World 10000m Champion
Albert Chepkuri (Ken)-sub 27 min 10000m
Abraham Chebil (Ken)6th=World X-Country, sub 13 min 5000m
Tadesse Zerisenay (Eri)
Mohamed Said El Wardi (Mor)
Jaouad Gharid (Mor)
Eagne Aelmu (Eth)
Jose Manuel Martinez (Spa)
Fabian Roncero (Spa)-sub 2:08 marathoner
Juan Carlos de la Ossa (Spa) beat 26:52 10k man John Korir
last week in x-country race
Enrique Molina (Spa)
Notice a trend: Kenyan and Spain are sending multiple athletes I would wager to try plans out on Kenenisa before
Worlds. Ethopia or Kenenisa apparently aren't concerned as they are not sending him mauch help! We will see the outcome tomorrow.
Vipam
10k runner wrote:
Enough already with the Meb or USA chances at a medal debate. Can anyone beat Kenenisa tomorrow or even challenge him, if so who? I don't see anyone challenging him til track season.
10k runner
Well, with a legit drug test--ritz, Jorge, Cragg would all be better. Much better.
Kenenisa Bekele absolutely crushes a stellar field at a 10800m x-country race in Seville, Spain today:
1. Kenenisa Bekele (Eth) 31:31
2. Tadesse Zeriseway (Eri) 31:46
5. Abraham Chebil (Ken) 32:06
6. Charles Kamathi (Ken) 32:09
7. Fabian Roncero (Spa) 32:11
Women (6,600m course)
1. Merma Denboba (Eth) 21:41
2. Edith Masai (Ken) 21:42
3. Elvan Abeylegesse (Tur) 21:43
Kenenisa always finally states, "I don't know which event I will run at the Worlds."
Merma Denboba announces she will double at the Ethopian X-Country trials and the World X-Country trials.
*My guess is Kenenisa will start lobbying for even more time between the 5000m and 10000m at the outdoor Worlds, so he can double. For complete Top 10 results for the Spain meet go to
.
Vipam
Great but brief artlicle in January Track and Field News on Geb and Kenenisa comeback and 2003 plans.
atrrunner - I think that's an excellent idea. I've certainly noticed that UK runners tend to be too concerned about being the first Briton home rather than running together to get the best race and time possible.
Regardless of what anyone else does if you run an even paced 27:10 (or whatever) then that's what you end up with. It would make sense for the non-afrricans to get together to try to work somethign out. The kenyans have been running as a team for years and look how it's helped them.
Vipam -
Wasn't that 27:13 a night meet, with ideal cooler conditions? Plus he was specifically paced from the front and pushed from behind.
How do you compare that to running similar times in heat and humidity and championship conditions.
If I remember correctly, even Lasse Viren only made the final in Moscow because another runner collapsed before the finish.
Meanwhile, the Ethiopians were wearing extra shirts to keep warm. : )
dunes runner When Meb ran his American Record of 27:13.98 in 2001 of course he had someone leading him at times and of course he had trailing runners. The trailing runners; however, wasn't pressuring him as they were too far back (next finisher was 19 seconds back).Also how many Championship races in the last 6 years was run faster than 27:20 (all top 3 finishers). Meb ran 27:20in 2002 and will be stronger from his marathon training. Don't get me wrong I am not saying that he is a SOLID medal threat, I do think if someone would help him run an even FAST pace (27:05-27:12)-he/they could snatch a bronze.Vipam Kenenisa is undecided about his event at the Worlds: Kenenisa vs. Geb in the 10000m!!!!
dunes runner wrote:Vipam -Wasn't that 27:13 a night meet, with ideal cooler conditions? Plus he was specifically paced from the front and pushed from behind.How do you compare that to running similar times in heat and humidity and championship conditions.If I remember correctly, even Lasse Viren only made the final in Moscow because another runner collapsed before the finish.Meanwhile, the Ethiopians were wearing extra shirts to keep warm. : )
Vipam wrote:
Kenenisa is undecided about his event at the Worlds: Kenenisa vs. Geb in the 10000m!!!!
I'd imagine Gebrsellassie would win; either way it would be fun to watch.
Bekele in the 5000m; Gebrsellassie at 10,000m -- Have the younger one race the shorter distance.
I don't know Kenenisa best event for the 2003 Worlds may be the 10000m, look at the ease he dispatched 3 different Kenyans who have run under 27 minutes-10k. Kenenisa biggest weapon is his stength/stamina! I think he will run the 5000m, but with his stength the 10000m maybe his BEST event this year.
Man the MIGHTY kenyans are baffled by Kenenisa, go to
or Track and Field News the magazine and read the article.
The Kenyan's RIchard Limo (2000 Olympic Champion) will be running the 12k at the World X-Country championship, can
he beat Kenenisa. Why can't the Kenyans find a man to beat the top Ethopians (Kenenisa, Geb, Derartu etc)?
What do YOU think make the Ethopians so hard to beat (Geb and Kenenisa)?
Apparently (some of ) the Ethiopians are faster.